XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...-to-irish.html some enjoyable reading about one of the xpurts (pun intended) of technical analysis ...

Good morning to you all. Today I have another kind of analysis: Time fibo's. This is a new study I am doing after such a drop in the market to assess the impact of small trades on the greater market. My system actually picks up tick-level fluctuations that tell me stuff that has an impact. The theory of harmonics in music shows that if you touch a vibrating string at key points in its length whilst vibrating a normal frequency, it changes pitch and frequency without adding much energy to the waveform. In this case here, the analysis is that you can affect the direction and trend with a small investment at key points in time to create and interference pattern that culminates in a constructive/destructive waveform.

All these patterns have a basis in science and mathematics and all play a part in the markets. There is no one complete system that tells what id the correct way to analyse the market, but taken as a group can reveal some very interesting things that you would otherwise miss. Using 6 fibo times, there is a patternthat seems to be adhered to by the market. How the market adheres to these imaginary positions in time, I'll never know, but it does it so well that it cannot be ignored. For this study, I used the GMT pionts of 01h00-01h12, 02h09-02h32, 3h19-4h04, 4h39-5h23, 7h06-7h17.

That's a lot of lines... each oe coincides with some interesting points in the market's moves and they seem constructive, rather than dstructive. The major principle in harmonic frequencies is that as the pitrch is changed, the velocity incease removs energy from the system for a higher pitch output. A hgher pitched output means that we see the changes happen on a smaller timescale with lower input. Effectively means that the market is easier to control by smaller and smaller corrections to greater effect on the bigger picture.

Using the earliest to latet time fibs:
The 1st key event: 01h00- A major player placed a bid in the market causing 277k ticks and a price change of just $0.40 for the highest volume of the day so far. The same player inputted more investment into gold incrementally @1h11, @1h30, 1h48, @2h07, @2h30, @3h06. What is interesting is that this is an American player with about 2770 lots whose investment caused less than 5% movement in the markets by slow-released funds in more than 14m59 minute spurts. Federal law in the States says that is how they must do it. What is interesting is that it was a few minutes after the hour after the Asian open, so it was probably and American branch of an international conglomerate because such small moves are only possible with machines and very sophisticated software. Timing of the volume means that the next influences were timed on purpose to affect the market after investment to get the price to move. The last wave affect was superformed on @7h16 with 2 other fibo times.

As time stretches out over the day, those harmonic substructures will affect the price movement for the day in lesser degrees but in a more favourable way to the investor. At each fibo time point, there is a meeting of events that seem to support the theory of harmonics, but not completely because there are other players doing the excat same thing with different timings too.

Apply fib levels to this system and a more indicative picture begins to emerge from the mess. A gartley pattern formed at the HoD from 7h06 to 7h53 says that market is bearish for a while at London open usually means down for the day and it has worked so far. After asian close we shall know better what the market will likely do for the day. It seems quite bullish for the day so far and may retrace to 1227 (161.8%) or so before falling over again. I am wary that the pattern there may be stronger than we imagine as price hasn't brolen higher to date and struggles to improve in price value with volume. A fib time says to wait until about 8h19 or even 8h34. Another follows from 2h09 @9h20, so there's some correlation so far and therefore we may need to just wait until up to 9h29 to see what happens. If no new bids in by then I am waiting until 12h00 to look for a new opportunity with more history. My fib level for the session so far is from high of 1h12 to low of 2h09. Make yours an expansion fib to show upside potential too.

So far the analysis is working according to analysis. Let's revisit it later to see how well it has played out.

while there sure is some meaningfull thinking behind it all ... you are sure you are not taking this thing too far ? :-D

Too far? Since when is earning a lot of money taking analysis too far a bad thing?

I agree that it seems a bit OCD, but if yo consider that analysis is purely applying the lessons from history to the present for a more better informed decision on the future to possibly expect from a particular set of circumstances, means that I am twice as likely to be successful meaning that my bids are likely to succeed (statistically speaking) 97.4% of the time not taking standard deviation into account.

not that I am exactly understanding what you are saying, but who am I to disagree with you ... everything works in technical analysis ... as long as you know how to use it ... ;-)

Z-scope prediction says price may terminate at exactly the 9h20 time fib and @1218.61. No idea what that means yet as there's not enough history for the day yet, but it's the first convergence. If price fails, I expect it to find varying levels of intermediate support and resistance @1223.84 @1222.65 @1221 @1218.61. The market hangs onto support and bounces up against resistance at these levels.

all sounds very complicated ... hope you can make it work somehow for you ... for me it's rather simple, I had a signal to short and just had a signal to add to that short ... it's seldom I get signals to add ... I had quite some noise around my first signal that allready made me think this might turn into a rather big move down, the add signal only reinforces that opinion ... but for all I know this might end up like a microscalp ...

Hmmm.... 09h20 is the earliest signs of the move before the UK FX AM price fix. Wonder what the currencies will think about gold investment today... Yesterday at that exact time gold went south $3.98 before retracing and then dropping another $2 or so.

history doesn't repeat itself in the exact same way, it rhymes at best ...

Yes, that's true, but even songs have a chorus and rhymes have a cohesive story in it somewhere. Unless you understand the language of the story being told, it is just a tale of no importance to you. The Z scope analysis shows a price region that includes a time fib, a price level ramarkably close to yesterday's close and the levels I put up are seemingly like magnets around associated fib price lkevels and time zones. Something makes this all seem a bit geometric and cbusy, but that is the story we are trying listen to to discover the plot before the plot becomes known that we can trade the tale into our bank accounts. No rhyme or reason can say that is not sensible, don't you think?

ok, as far as I can judge you are overall using some common sense ... good luck with your method :-)

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thanks 4 ur time + sharin m8

Thank you, I take that as a compliment. Just to show what I mean about the destiny of the system: the market is heading in a direction it stated itself earlier...
We only wait to see if it actually completes that part of the tale before it makes te plot known.

In case anyone wants to know what the heck a Z scope analysis is:

Interesting, gold found support at 1220.9. Might be more bullish for the morning.

I just had a second add signal (well allready some time ago now) I haven't seen that yet ... UBS lowered its predictions for gold and silver ...

regarding the chart: my head starts to spin if I see anything above the hourly

This is interesting... next marker is the LBMA am fix.

Now we see another...


And that's the 1min.

just did another add since the hourly looked so juicy ...