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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #29,581
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:43am Dec 2, 2013 11:43am
Quoting adamjn
{quote} You mad bro? A 15 Min hammer means nothing, look at H4, that is a VERY bearish candle... also, daily has broken the recent low, so expect 1215 or 1207 tomorrow. My opinions change all the time depending on what the market is doing, but this looks a solid break of support and it holding below it pretty well. {image}
Sorry, I was attempting to catch a few pips using lower time frames and it seemed bullish on first glance but failed to really break higher.

I agree with bearishness....some move today..
Trade with what you see, not what you feel.
  • #29,582
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:44am Dec 2, 2013 11:44am
Personal thinking time to buy.

Dollar seems meet triple tops, S&P rally seems over.
  • #29,583
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:59am Dec 2, 2013 11:59am
Quoting fx4money
holding longs, lets see what the future hold for tomorrow
If you can get out of your predicament, there may be good reason according to my analysis. Anything can happen, so don't accept this as one of the 10 commandments...

This is the predictive engine of the market system I use. There is convergence again. The yellow lines show subjective support levels and below them is nothing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 118 KB


This time I post this well in advance so people know howcome I am able to more accurately place my bids.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,584
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:03pm Dec 2, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} If you can get out of your predicament, there may be good reason according to my analysis. Anything can happen, so don't accept this as one of the 10 commandments... This is the predictive engine of the market system I use. There is convergence again. The yellow lines show subjective support levels and below them is nothing.{image} This time I post this well in advance so people know howcome I am able to more accurately place my bids.
you analysis seems interesting, however, i do have another view

i except first a retracement to 1232-35 area followed with another drop to ~1205 (1207-1204) where this could be the ultimate bottom for the year. i will post a chart in a bit to explain my reasoning.

all the best
  • #29,585
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:22pm Dec 2, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} you analysis seems interesting, however, i do have another view i except first a retracement to 1232-35 area followed with another drop to ~1205 (1207-1204) where this could be the ultimate bottom for the year. i will post a chart in a bit to explain my reasoning. all the best
well first the 15 min chart, as you see in the circled area, we did have a strong bullish engulfing which for me is a sign of a temporary bottom, i except a retrace to the 38.2 Fibbo retracement which is as well the support which was broken today & nearby the broken trendline, so my target is the red box (1232-1235)

second is daily chart, one of the things i like about gold is the Head & Sholders formation which it always tend to make with a trendline! check the attachment, the red circled area is the head while the blue circled areas are the sholders, if i copy the trendline drawn from the top of right sholder to the top of left sholder, we get an area where i except gold to retrace from, of course give and take 4 dollars (1203-1208). i except PA to get there either by end of this week or maximum begining of next week.

Good luck trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 15min.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #29,586
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:16pm Dec 2, 2013 2:16pm
Long sliver , SL 19.12, tp 19.30
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #29,587
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:27pm Dec 2, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting The Rhodie
Those of you who think this is an hammer and are plannig on going long: watch out! Gold is about to surprise all your accounts with a major drop. This was a dragon-king immediately after a black swan event. That means we are going to see a massive fracture in the market and then gold will really move. If you look back to my morning post, you will see that I warned about 1231 failing then sliding downhill very fast.
You are spot on again mate. When do you think its the best time to buy? I am not comfortable with longs until PA goes back to 1230.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #29,588
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:48pm Dec 2, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} You are spot on again mate. When do you think its the best time to buy? I am not comfortable with longs until PA goes back to 1230.

I wouldn't be buying until 1180 is hit and a massive signal is shown on the daily chart, even at that, I would defo be cautious, why do you want to buy again anyway? Why not sell and go with the flow?
insideBars==boss
  • #29,589
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:57pm Dec 2, 2013 2:57pm
it is oversold in 15, 1h, 4h even in daily... according to rsi

time for buying.
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #29,590
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:00pm Dec 2, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting adamjn
{quote} I wouldn't be buying until 1180 is hit and a massive signal is shown on the daily chart, even at that, I would defo be cautious, why do you want to buy again anyway? Why not sell and go with the flow?
Maybe you are right bro.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #29,591
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:02pm Dec 2, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting spinozagr
it is oversold in 15, 1h, 4h even in daily... according to rsi time for buying.
One thing I learnt in forex is that price can be oversold or overbought for a long period of time. Thats why I threw my RSI indicator away.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #29,592
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:04pm Dec 2, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} You are spot on again mate. When do you think its the best time to buy? I am not comfortable with longs until PA goes back to 1230.
Who's buying? I want a drink too! Wait till the workers hit the bar and the bosses stop taking business lunch meetings, that's when to go long. We may have a day of profit collection tomorrow, or just a massive $42.86 brick drop from outer space. June saw a rally of $55+ in a day. Don't think that buying is an option anymore. My predictive analysis engine says that the multi-frame projection is to sub $900 levels. What? Yes, I said that. There is too much to work against gold to make it worth more than that and I cannot put the whole anaysis in one post. It would be thesis length and 2 years in the writing.

Bear in mind that gold has not always had such a high price value. The price value you see is entirely hyperinflated due to real value devaluation by fiat currency undermining. The usd is worth less than .1% of what it was 100 years ago when it was worth 1 gold ounce per dollar. The days when a silver dollar were meant that a silver ounce was worth a buck are dead. it was a few silver dollars to a gold dollar. Once credit was invented, everything was borrowed from the future and now there's not enough future to borrow against before it collapses round our ears. Pick your shorts up and wear them like a badge of merit and honour.

In my opinion, longs are going to lose you money in the longer term. Go long for scalps and short for positional trades.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,593
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:30pm Dec 2, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} well first the 15 min chart... Good luck trading
Just a comment from my perspective: Your second shoulder is part of a seperate pattern that excludes your anaysis from it being a shoulder at all. That is a fractured event that leaves the dislocated shoulder very heavy and hangs down to a geometric formation of a Z-scope structure. Obviously this is a new type of analysis that nobody has heard of because it is new. What is different now is that in the markets there is no precedent for the substructure being the overiding vlue indicator of action. Before atomic theory was proven scientifically, they only guessed at the idea of sub-atomic particles. Now they too have been discovered. Every cent invested in a market has a destiny. Every market has identical cents invested in them. the only difference is the owner. Each owner shifts their cents around as they think is best, but the crowd who love to try anything new have discovered a new toy in the digital markets and are about to gank a load of cents out of that invention into others. The numbes add up. Helium has 3 particles, gold has a load more (79 x 3 = 237). The particles are identical, but the owners are different. markets are the same. If you can figure out the substructure of each market, then you can understand better the supersrtucture.

What this means in this analogy is that using the 4H charts is like viewing planet gold as a whole hoping to place a bid on the trend of the people who live in Tennesseeville's trading habits and expecting it to be accurate. If however you are viewing it from a 1m chart, you are more likely to get a better idea of who is doing what because you are viewing planet gold from 100ft up and the planet gold looks very large. By looking carefully at the 1M chart you can better see what the market is actually doing against what you imagine it might possibly do if you are lucky and not very religious...

Basically what I'm saying is that unless you are looking at 3 time frames simultaneously, you are almost certainly doomed to failure. Maybe not so much those with account balances in excess of $52138.00 They have more leeway and less risk issues than smaller accounts. (You see what I did there? 52138: all fib numbers!) A 4H chart does not tell you that there is an impending drop of $4 in 3 minutes time that could wipe out your stop and slip your account into the red. A 1M chart does. I'm an idiot, so not everything is accurate. My opinion matters to me and not many others. The evidence of my analysis is proof of the truth afterwards. I'm right more than half the time, wrong the rest.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,594
  • Dec 2, 2013 6:36pm Dec 2, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} One thing I learnt in forex is that price can be oversold or overbought for a long period of time. Thats why I threw my RSI indicator away.
Money Makes Money
  • #29,595
  • Dec 2, 2013 6:42pm Dec 2, 2013 6:42pm
YES. There is a pot of GOLD at the end of the rainbow.............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdmonthly.png Size: 43 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #29,596
  • Dec 2, 2013 6:56pm Dec 2, 2013 6:56pm
Quoting KiwiOz
YES. There is a pot of GOLD at the end of the rainbow............. {image}

Back to 1230 then down we go again...........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdm15.png Size: 48 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #29,597
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:39pm Dec 2, 2013 7:39pm
Getting uglier by the day, 1180 still at risk.

I don't think this has any chance of making a bottom until 1180 is tested, nobody wants to buy before they see that level tested successfully.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #29,598
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:43pm Dec 2, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Back to 1230 then down we go again........... {image}
Maybe not. Doesn't appear interested in the Daily pivot today.??
Money Makes Money
  • #29,599
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:50pm Dec 2, 2013 10:50pm
Quoting Spec_And
Getting uglier by the day, 1180 still at risk. I don't think this has any chance of making a bottom until 1180 is tested, nobody wants to buy before they see that level tested successfully.
Yes and to make this price going down faster is tomorrows jobs data. Almost all US data is good
  • #29,600
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:24pm Dec 2, 2013 11:24pm
The guy at Elliott Wave 5.0 Reboot has made an informative posted about the Gold stocks index (GDXJ) which shows some more downside is due for Gold. However, it's not likely to be a straight down drop from present levels because the USD index is hitting an upper TL and is likely to be in for a downtrend, which will see Gold heading up (for a period). Both analyses can be found at http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.b...ody-hates.html

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qDJmeVfp9I...Dec-2-2013.png
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