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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #29,381
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:32am Nov 29, 2013 3:32am
Quoting XTrade
WHAT THE %^&* I just lost two posts TWICE!!! One on cable one on gold. Then the two together. The forum is jumping pages.... maybe my keyboard is fu'd.... DAMN. cable did break resistance but not out of the woods. Tough to say if it's good to just jump in now while it's 40 pips or so off the high?! Cause she may just go up. or wait for 6300 / 6250 to see if it gets rejected. ALSO THERE IS A POTENTIALLY HUGE DAILY BULL FLAG - the top of the flag was pierced on this recent break. Doing the chart. longer term for cable and gold. NEW 12 month HIGH GBP/NOK!...
Think cable still more test which may create new high and then go south. I am more bearish on EUR than GBP but still miss a 50pips drop last night... sigh...
  • #29,382
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:58am Nov 29, 2013 3:58am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Going to be posting a Gold chart you may find useful for either side trades.
...waiting for this, but shouldn't stay up much longer. Noticed this:
Daily, highs have been limited by the Tenkan Sen line on my ichimoku chart since 10/31. I say 'my' because not everyone's ichimoku looks the same.
4H, high spike recently stopped exactly at the lower border of the cloud.
...there is also a daily trendline on my chart, somewhat rough, since 10/28, and the price recently respected it.
  • #29,383
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:00am Nov 29, 2013 4:00am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Think cable still more test which may create new high and then go south. I am more bearish on EUR than GBP but still miss a 50pips drop last night... sigh...

If this beautiful flag pans out cable's bull run is far from over. I am working on showing the past range. Highs lows, the inner range more pertinent to today's range
and the completion suggested area of the flag.

It may pull back to 6300 which I would take with an over 100 pip stop and TP likely over 300. I am using the weekly now instead of the daily.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,384
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:07am Nov 29, 2013 4:07am
Add more long @ 1245
  • #29,385
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:07am Nov 29, 2013 4:07am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Going to be posting a Gold chart you may find useful for either side trades.
Thanks. I think that my analysis is correct and so far it's true. Until the change @ 12h00gmt. Then I reasess the situation.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,386
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:16am Nov 29, 2013 4:16am
Gold still on 1256-1236 range. Not much interesting happening right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.JPG Size: 50 KB
  • #29,387
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:17am Nov 29, 2013 4:17am
Looks like we are going through the same pattern seen in Yesterday's UK session. A test of high @ session begin, test low @ 12:20 UK time...
  • #29,388
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:22am Nov 29, 2013 4:22am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} If this beautiful flag pans out cable's bull run is far from over. I am working on showing the past range. Highs lows, the inner range more pertinent to today's range and the completion suggested area of the flag. It may pull back to 6300 which I would take with an over 100 pip stop and TP likely over 300. I am using the weekly now instead of the daily.
You mean buy @ 1.63?
  • #29,389
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:26am Nov 29, 2013 4:26am
Quoting Scalptastic
Gold still on 1256-1236 range. Not much interesting happening right now. {image}
WHen in a down trend, the trend line is more reliable when you draw them by linking lower highs.
  • #29,390
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:29am Nov 29, 2013 4:29am
Looks like UK traders finish the test high of AUD/USD NAZ/USD and begin to move in right direction.
  • #29,391
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:34am Nov 29, 2013 4:34am
These are the type of trades I love. If they work out the best way to start is have a significant and basically textbook chart pattern that we have here.
Start off with a decent Risk Reward - not too high leverage and not too high lots to start, you can always add on pullback.


Try and get the best entry. In this case - the bottom of the range would have been best, but, if you are just playing the pattern and not in already from the range
we are right at the entry point area now. You want a large stop I will add after and the ULTIMATE TP would be @1.7200+ if the pattern can complete.

That is a SOLID 1000 pips from here. SO being that it is the weekly if it hold it will be strong and due to the length you have to be in the position,
things like outside forces can change. Say the Euro starts tanking, or there is a war, both of which will drag the trade down. So if you keep following it just buy dips sell the highs and reload. Cashing out by the TP.

Anyway here is the outline, finishing up other chart [[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[[ :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 41.png Size: 80 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,392
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:39am Nov 29, 2013 4:39am
Gold Federation biggest importers warned 1100 possible next month publicly reco mmend investors to avoid holding gold for too long
and take profit on every rise .... Gold being down grade from investment to trading commodity by gold federation it self !!! all are
ready to dump their gold reserves ..its gonna be a sudden big quick fall to 1150 .!!!!
  • #29,393
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:48am Nov 29, 2013 4:48am
Quoting rambo12
Gold Federation biggest importers warned 1100 possible next month publicly reco mmend investors to avoid holding gold for too long and take profit on every rise .... Gold being down grade from investment to trading commodity by gold federation it self !!! all are ready to dump their gold reserves ..its gonna be a sudden big quick fall to 1150 .!!!!

Gold imports may pick up, touch 725 tonnes in FY'14: Gold federation
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/go...ation/1179089/

So where does that leave your thoughts? India is one of the worlds biggest consumers of gold after China.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,394
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:49am Nov 29, 2013 4:49am
Quoting XTrade
These are the type of trades I love. If they work out the best way to start is have a significant and basically textbook chart pattern that we have here. Start off with a decent Risk Reward - not too high leverage and not too high lots to start, you can always add on pullback. Try and get the best entry. In this case - the bottom of the range would have been best, but, if you are just playing the pattern and not in already from the range we are right at the entry point area now. You want a large stop I will add after and the ULTIMATE TP would be...
Good analysis!

The reason I add more bet to weak cable and EUR is more based on fundamental factors. The EUR's recovery is slowing down, and it is extremely over-valued. Some big banks' macro portfolios already begin to short EUR and GBP (but most of them failed on cable short). Morgan stanley just short 10 million EUR yesterday or today @ 1.36, and we can see there is strong resistance @ 1.3620 or above. Cable may go up but it will face some pressure from weak EUR. And the UK data now is not bad but also not good enough to push it higher.

However, just like you mentioned, there are still good trades both sides on cable, just buy low sell high and be careful with long swing trades.
  • #29,395
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:54am Nov 29, 2013 4:54am
Quoting rambo12
Gold Federation biggest importers warned 1100 possible next month publicly reco mmend investors to avoid holding gold for too long and take profit on every rise .... Gold being down grade from investment to trading commodity by gold federation it self !!! all are ready to dump their gold reserves ..its gonna be a sudden big quick fall to 1150 .!!!!
Gold Price Forecast to Hit $2,500 Before End of 2014 : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42724.html

BNP Paribas Lowers 2014 Gold Forecast To $1,095/Oz : http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-11-11...vember-11.html

BofA Merrill Lynch cuts 2014 gold forecast by 17% to $1,294 : http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell...by-17-to-1294/

So who do you believe? Opinion means nothing. Trade what the market is telling you right now, not what people imagine. That is my rule for trading.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,396
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:58am Nov 29, 2013 4:58am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Gold Price Forecast to Hit $2,500 Before End of 2014 : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article42724.html BNP Paribas Lowers 2014 Gold Forecast To $1,095/Oz : http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-11-11...vember-11.html BofA Merrill Lynch cuts 2014 gold forecast by 17% to $1,294 : http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell...by-17-to-1294/ So who do you believe? Opinion means nothing. Trade what the market is telling you right now, not what people...
2500 is really hard to believe, the average bank estimate gold price next year is 1000-1100, I remember I saw this data in some article recently. In addition, almost every bank are strongly bearish in the 1st quarter next year.
  • #29,397
  • Nov 29, 2013 4:58am Nov 29, 2013 4:58am
Quoting rambo12
Gold Federation biggest importers warned 1100 possible next month publicly reco mmend investors to avoid holding gold for too long and take profit on every rise .... Gold being down grade from investment to trading commodity by gold federation it self !!! all are ready to dump their gold reserves ..its gonna be a sudden big quick fall to 1150 .!!!!
not buying it, otherwise it should be easy for everyone just dump sell now
LUCKY golden trades, LUCKY gold investor trading style
  • #29,398
  • Edited 5:21am Nov 29, 2013 4:59am | Edited 5:21am
Relax. Do you believe everything you read when trading?

How bout' a link to this story.

What your posting doesn't really make sense. China, one of if not the biggest buyer, has no announced plans of stopping buying gold right now.
maybe the will lessen some METRIC TONS. But that's another story, so if that's what you mean by importers.

Gold is not "debt from a country" neatly packed up as a derivative - It doesn't get downgraded from "investment" to trading commodity.
It is both and will be both as long as people want to use it to "invest" park money "hedge" etc.. AND it is a Trading commodity already. SO?

No Central banks have released any major gold sales besides whatever is the norm which the common public usually never hear about.
The IMF - same thing.

Who is the "Gold Federation"?

Please provide a link for validity - so people can judge the source of this information.

Ever hear of pump then dump - it works both ways. Who do you think will buy all this gold if and when it hits 1000???
PEOPLE WILL BE GETTING RICH ON BOTH SIDES> Trust me.

The more I look at this the more ridiculous it sounds. Who is dumping their gold reserves? Central banks? no....
Even if they did, another bank would just buy it and the price would fall well below 1100 if a bunch of central banks sold their "RESERVES"
due to the price the other bank will pay and a flood of supply.

Quoting rambo12
Gold Federation biggest importers warned 1100 possible next month publicly reco mmend investors to avoid holding gold for too long and take profit on every rise .... Gold being down grade from investment to trading commodity by gold federation it self !!! all are ready to dump their gold reserves ..its gonna be a sudden big quick fall to 1150 .!!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,399
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:19am Nov 29, 2013 5:19am
Whilst the argument on gold price rages on...
we have something more interesting developing that will affect the markets in a substantial way.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...n-prime-target

Suggest you read it and then see why I say the following:

China has deliberately picked on Japan at this time because Japan is so weak economically that it cannot win a war. America is so stretched over budget that it cannot afford to enter an armed conflict to support Japan. If this escalates into more than a war of words, then we have an opportunity to see USD devalue substantially.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,400
  • Nov 29, 2013 5:27am Nov 29, 2013 5:27am
The problem here is it was pumped from October 2008 ($680) to September 2011 ( $1920) . 3 years Gold increased $1240 an ounce and is totally insane. A world war or the great depression had never impacted gold with such price. I do not believe you will see a pump for sometime and i would treat that $1240 rise as a massive manipulated spike like we have on some short term news release based on doctored figures.
I would not be surprised to even see the $700 level recovered at some point . Goldman Sachs released a prediction end of 2014 that Gold will see 1050.....they are more than likely a year out or they have forgotten to give a forecast for the end of this year. There certainly is a big potential to see gold go under 1100 before the years out.
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