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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #29,341
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:04pm Nov 28, 2013 7:04pm
At the same time, AUD is trying to break 0.9070 again, and see NZD/USD testing 0.81 again. Show me the money!!
  • #29,342
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:32pm Nov 28, 2013 7:32pm
Quoting LarryLU
Looks like the buyer begin to come in in last 3 mins. If 1242 holds in the Asia session, think 1255 will not be a problem.
my 30 min chart shows otherwise. may be sooner than what i anticipate.
  • #29,343
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:59pm Nov 28, 2013 7:59pm
Quoting gilfx
My today's target is 1223 (R/R=2.45) {image}

hi gilfx,

Wow, this looks interesting. Please explain the EW data down the bottom of the chart. Is that your own note-taking or an app doing that analysis? And the orange and red "winds of trend" on the chart? Amazing!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,344
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:06pm Nov 28, 2013 8:06pm
Short cable @ 1.6375, strongly disagree with this price.
  • #29,345
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:26pm Nov 28, 2013 8:26pm
Quoting Cowboy11
I believe that gold will turn strong from now onward.........
Still weak, market have no Ommmmmm........
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #29,346
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:35pm Nov 28, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting LarryLU
Short cable @ 1.6375, strongly disagree with this price.
Keep in mind cable just broke a major resistance, so a 100+ pip move IMO breakout was warranted.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,347
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:36pm Nov 28, 2013 8:36pm
Quoting lilpip
Hey xtrade seen your shout out wondering where ive been. Ive been extremely busy in the construction trade. As far as trading goes as mentioned in one of my last posts I was looking at 2014 for a push up from the lows so im still waiting to go leveraged. In the mean time i went into cash and buying physical. take care all
HEY BUDDY!

Glad to hear you are still around. Cool great that you are busy, + some great discount physical prices to be had as well.

Stop by again when you are back./
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,348
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:40pm Nov 28, 2013 8:40pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Keep in mind cable just broke a major resistance, so a 100+ pip move IMO breakout was warranted.
Dont think this breakout is firm. However, wait to see how UK traders react to this price.
  • #29,349
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:42pm Nov 28, 2013 8:42pm
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Dont think this breakout is firm. However, wait to see how UK traders react to this price.

It's been so damn strong lately that i'm scared to short it, but as far as a scalp goes I think it's an awesome level to short. Could even be a high for the coming weeks. Wish you luck with it. Got my ass burned on EU and GU past few weeks when I should have been sticking to shorting Aussie pairs, Gold, Oil, etc.

Shorting gold here. Momentum doesn't look good. Trend is down. Seems like a high % play.
  • #29,350
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:52pm Nov 28, 2013 8:52pm
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Dont think this breakout is firm. However, wait to see how UK traders react to this price.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it to go back down to the resistance in a few sessions, yet, I have to put in the level as I haven't traded the pair in a few days - I think it was something like 6250 that it tried breaking for months.

This is true GBP strength though not just cable.

New 1 Year HIGHS on
GBP/NZD
GBP/CAD
GBP/USD = Cable
GBP/JPY
GBP/AUD i believe was yesterday - but not certain.

My charts are closed at the moment.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,351
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:56pm Nov 28, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting thodie
{quote} diamond reversal pattern
nice observation.
  • #29,352
  • Nov 28, 2013 8:56pm Nov 28, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} It's been so damn strong lately that i'm scared to short it, but as far as a scalp goes I think it's an awesome level to short. Could even be a high for the coming weeks. Wish you luck with it. Got my ass burned on EU and GU past few weeks when I should have been sticking to shorting Aussie pairs, Gold, Oil, etc. Shorting gold here. Momentum doesn't look good. Trend is down. Seems like a high % play.
A new fresh low is printed (seems like a guy is shorting with two large orders)! Will cover some of my long @ break-even if buying is not strong to bring it back. If 1245 can not reach in Asian session, will close my rest when session ended...

Dont know how far it will go but wish you good luck!
  • #29,353
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:01pm Nov 28, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} I wouldn't be surprised to see it to go back down to the resistance in a few sessions, yet, I have to put in the level as I haven't traded the pair in a few days - I think it was something like 6250 that it tried breaking for months. This is true GBP strength though not just cable. New 1 Year HIGHS on GBP/NZD GBP/CAD GBP/USD = Cable GBP/JPY GBP/AUD i believe was yesterday - but not certain. My charts are closed at the moment.
What's your view with the gold right now?
  • #29,354
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:02pm Nov 28, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Dont think this breakout is firm. However, wait to see how UK traders react to this price.
Do be careful if the former resistance turn support. Stronger the resistance, the stronger will be the support if it converts.
I too got my ass burnt last few weeks back trying to short cable at resistance.
No potential trade now, but monitoring Gold to see if SR line at 1252 is a resistance.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #29,355
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:04pm Nov 28, 2013 9:04pm
morning all,

the Yen pairs and GU are really defying indicators to the upside, but i'm cautious to join the trend at this stage or to even step in front of it with a short position - with the Yen it's unprecedented printing and Nikkei stock mania. With GU i get the feeling the market is compensating for the BoE's failure to raise rates (in the face of improving data) by pricing confidence into the Pound.

FF member PipTrapper posted the following doc from HSBC a few months ago. He made the comment that it's not because HSBC are the trader's friend but because their analysists' market insight has some merit. What the paper discusses is the notion that models such as "safe haven" and "Risk on Risk off" are no longer acting on the markets as they did when first identified. Times have changed and the pushes and pulls on currency have shifted. Here's a link to the paper. It does not specifically mention Gold (or commodities) but the framework for understanding money flows and FX fluctuation is valuable:

HSBC: Currency Baskets Paradigm
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,356
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:13pm Nov 28, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} I wouldn't be surprised to see it to go back down to the resistance in a few sessions, yet, I have to put in the level as I haven't traded the pair in a few days - I think it was something like 6250 that it tried breaking for months. This is true GBP strength though not just cable. New 1 Year HIGHS on GBP/NZD GBP/CAD GBP/USD = Cable GBP/JPY GBP/AUD i believe was yesterday - but not certain. My charts are closed at the moment.
Just close my shorts of cable with several pips profits... dont want too many risk tonight (if gold turn into a strong down trend), which may give me a negative emotion when make further decisions. Go to bed now, have a good night!
  • #29,357
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:15pm Nov 28, 2013 9:15pm
apologies, off-topic, but just to make a logical conclusion to my previous post, I'm using the GU example discussed in the paper I posted previously:

BoE is failing to tighten monetary policy by raising rates, so the market is doing the tightening for them. Taking this analysis to it's logical conclusion implies that GU will keep rising until BoE raise rates. Bad UK data releases will cause some dips but won't reverse the uptrend. The moment BoE raise rates, the market will compensate for the rate increase by taking GU back to levels where it "should" be - and that's the time to short it. Right now, shorting GU will only see the trader catching minor trend corrections for small profits at high risk. As counter intuitive as it may seem (looking at the chart) it is safer to go long the Pound - not that I'm willing to do that!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,358
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:17pm Nov 28, 2013 9:17pm
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  • #29,359
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:35pm Nov 28, 2013 9:35pm
daily chart
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  • #29,360
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:38pm Nov 28, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting venzen
BoE is failing to tighten monetary policy by raising rates, so the market is doing the tightening for them. Taking this analysis to it's logical conclusion implies that GU will keep rising until BoE raise rates.
Learnt something new today. Thanks.

Always have the impression that an increase in interest rate will make the currency stronger. In this case, its all about market correcting itself to the most efficient value.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
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