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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #29,101
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:37am Nov 27, 2013 2:37am
Quoting venzen
{quote} LarryLU, just to understand - are you saying USD strength/weakness translates to XAUUSD going up or down?
Yes, Gold is highly negative-correlated to USD(bonds) and Stock market. As gold is seen as heaven safe asset, so most gold buyers come to buy gold when they have less confidence in US bond or Stock markets. This makes gold has higher liquidity than other commodities which usually only driven by supply/demand.
  • #29,102
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:42am Nov 27, 2013 2:42am
Looks like some long-term gold sellers are covering their positions.
  • #29,103
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:42am Nov 27, 2013 2:42am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Yes, Gold is highly negative-correlated to USD(bonds) and Stock market. As gold is seen as heaven safe asset, so most gold buyers come to buy gold when they have less confidence in US bond or Stock markets. This makes gold has higher liquidity than other commodities which usually only driven by supply/demand.

ok, thanks for explaining. I guess with equities mania going on as well as a QE fuelled US bond market, the effect on Gold is obvious. Thinking further, if the Fed were to taper QE, then the resulting USD strength (due to money flow back into the US from EMs, etc) should drive Gold down. However, failure to taper (in Dec or March) will have the opposite effect.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,104
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:44am Nov 27, 2013 2:44am
Quoting venzen
{quote} ok, thanks for explaining. I guess with equities mania going on as well as a QE fuelled US bond market, the effect on Gold is obvious. Thinking further, if the Fed were to taper QE, then the resulting USD strength (due to money flow back into the US from EMs, etc) should drive Gold down. However, failure to taper (in Dec or March) will have the opposite effect.
Yes, you are right. You can see the big drop on Nov 20th, which is purely driven a talk of Tapering.
  • #29,105
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:46am Nov 27, 2013 2:46am
i had success closed my long position with +30pips and its follow my chart to the trendline. now i had entry short position wish me luck =D
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  • #29,106
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:50am Nov 27, 2013 2:50am
Quoting msia21213333
i had success closed my long position with +30pips and its follow my chart to the trendline. now i had entry short position wish me luck =D {image}
I still expect a test of higher, mb 1250 or 1255. Could close my long soon.
  • #29,107
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:54am Nov 27, 2013 2:54am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Yes, you are right. You can see the big drop on Nov 20th, which is purely driven a talk of Tapering.

Gold chart always like deep retracement, this is a fact
so upon on that, we should see 1275, after that we can sell, No sell for me at the moment

I still hold my long till see 127x which mean 161 fibo then I will short
  • #29,108
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:02am Nov 27, 2013 3:02am
Quoting bugsbunny110
{quote} Gold chart always like deep retracement, this is a fact so upon on that, we should see 1275, after that we can sell, No sell for me at the moment I still hold my long till see 127x which mean 161 fibo then I will short
THis is my second scenario, in which case the short covering will guide the market today just before thanksgiving. If it holds well above 1250 + no obvious selling in US session, I will look forward to adding more entry long.

And in this case even 1300 could be a target.
  • #29,109
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:10am Nov 27, 2013 3:10am
The classic correlation is USD UP = GOLD DOWN / GOLD UP = USD DOWN.

BUT, there are breakdowns. It is not ALWAYS the case. For instance a great example was during certain periods of the run UP to 1920,
With the Euro and GBP tanking, Mainly the Euro dragging the GBP down with it, The European's looked for safety and speculation in Gold as well as the USD,
thus, there were links, where the two rose in tandem due to the "EUzone crisis."

Then afterwards the correlation went back to inverse for the most part.

Again, what you guys are mentioning e.g. the equities mania is certainly keeping speculative capital out of gold, partially seen when we have a nice rise.
Then no follow through and then the shorts step in... The bulls have not thrown in the towel though, but, to propel gold back to the 1550 area. 50% fibo pull with origins 1920 and 1180 - Gold will need more capital flow.

Quoting venzen
{quote} ok, thanks for explaining. I guess with equities mania going on as well as a QE fuelled US bond market, the effect on Gold is obvious. Thinking further, if the Fed were to taper QE, then the resulting USD strength (due to money flow back into the US from EMs, etc) should drive Gold down. However, failure to taper (in Dec or March) will have the opposite effect.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,110
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:15am Nov 27, 2013 3:15am
OOPS I cut it off- it is the 5 Year.

Here is a 6 month with USDX %tage comparison with DOW (INDU) NASDAQ (COMP) and S&P (SPX)

Quoting venzen
XT, what is the timeframe on the bottom-most DXY chart?
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,111
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:23am Nov 27, 2013 3:23am
Quoting XTrade
OOPS I cut it off- it is the 5 Year. Here is a 6 month with USDX %tage comparison with DOW (INDU) NASDAQ (COMP) and S&P (SPX) {quote} {image} {image}
Yes, it explains well the QE effects. QE surges the US equity market and emerging stock market (like Indian) a lot (a large part of QE went overseas), and bond-buying & low interest keeps US bond market very attractive which attracts a lot of foreign investment, leading to a USD strength (if you look back to Sep 2012). Also you can see the drop of gold since Sep 2012.

However, DX drop after July 2013 mainly because of concerns of tapering. But on the other side Equity keep going up. SO it is always good to link gold with Stocks and Dollar (bonds) together.
  • #29,112
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:29am Nov 27, 2013 3:29am
Quoting Scalptastic
Short positions are tempting today. {image}

If we manage to hold above 1240 today then it might break out of falling channel.
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  • #29,113
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:37am Nov 27, 2013 3:37am
Just hope the tier 1 US investment bank lift its stop again before the cable drop moment ago...
  • #29,114
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:43am Nov 27, 2013 3:43am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} I still expect a test of higher, mb 1250 or 1255. Could close my long soon.

yea , actually i wish to hold till 1250-55zone but my trendline told me a strong S&R there so i get a short but before news i will close the trade
  • #29,115
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:46am Nov 27, 2013 3:46am
Hi all, I am new here.

So i have 1 question for everyone here. Will the comex market shut-down? The reason im asking this is because ive been reading some news saying that this price takedown in gold is being manipulated and that the actual physical price for gold is actually high. Also, this price takedown has already causes changes in stocks held in gold banks to change hand to eastern country mainly China, India and Russia.

So please an input or discussion will be very appreciated. Thank you


BTW for those interested i was reading it from kingworldnews.com
  • #29,116
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:58am Nov 27, 2013 3:58am
Agreed. Gold is holding above 1245 and looks like it wants to retest 1255 in which case it takes it and holds it would likely spell 1275 and 1300 in upcoming sessions.
With no break of 1240 tonight got in for a little swing trade to TP around #1 around 1255 and #2 closer to 1300 depending on how the PA works out.
Keep in mind all THURSDAY is a US BANK HOLIDAY.
-If the yellow metal cannot flip 1255 to support, we should see a dip then back first to 1240 then possibly 1230 which looks like it has a bit of strength as support.

So we'll see what happens. Overall range is pretty tight, but Thursday with light volume could have some wild swings. Friday may be light as well for US sessions.
-Interested in how the Unemployment (US) # will come out. Usually December is more skewed, but we'll see. There is definitely holiday full time help on the payroll for retail stores already. So it could put a bump in this rise.
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} THis is my second scenario, in which case the short covering will guide the market today just before thanksgiving. If it holds well above 1250 + no obvious selling in US session, I will look forward to adding more entry long. And in this case even 1300 could be a target.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,117
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:01am Nov 27, 2013 4:01am
Glad to have some gold in hand. Thinking about time to trade overbought cable while dollar still holds.
  • #29,118
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:05am Nov 27, 2013 4:05am
GBP has now hit above the last high after the fall in 2008. Last time before that level was way back in the recession of 2000. This has affected gold nicely today. I hipe all you pip pirates are happy and making profits worth getting excited about. I am watching Eur:Jpy for a possible record breaker.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #29,119
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:10am Nov 27, 2013 4:10am
Want to see gold test 1250 around US session open.
  • #29,120
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:12am Nov 27, 2013 4:12am
If gold goes to the 1237 then it will probably be quite bullish. For now it looks bears are coming out the woods to eat up those tasty bulls...

If gold breaks yeasterday's high in a slow trend up all day, then we ouhgt to be careful about placing those shorts.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
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