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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #29,081
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:28am Nov 27, 2013 1:28am
Looks possible, not sure about a full 20 USD drop - Main impact tomorrow's news is Core Durable Goods and Unemployment.

Unemployment is definitely subject to a skewed, usually positive number around these months due to the holiday help if hired full time,
all to be dumped by January!

Southside, I'm eyeing up 1236 as the first decisive stop.

Yet, with the little bounce back and being that we are closer, I'm looking for a potential break past 1251/2 area which would then negate the short as of yet.
so we'll see how London does.

If the price does indeed rise past 1250 and the news is dollar positive (out @ 830:am EST) then the short's may look to squash the new high..
Waiting game.

Here's a screen of tomorrow's USD news. all.

Quoting Bo_fajer
idea for 2day {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 11.png Size: 47 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,082
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:40am Nov 27, 2013 1:40am
Hi,

After analisys my Elliot Wave chart ,I have no trend for today. What you think about today Gold trend?
  • #29,083
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:40am Nov 27, 2013 1:40am
The truth is that (with all the respect i have to venzen) Venzen pull the trigger for all this mess telling him that here is not Facebook...

My opinion is that we are all old enough to follow someone just because he says something...

Better not comment others people opinions even if there is no depth in their view...

Just my thoughts.
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #29,084
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:41am Nov 27, 2013 1:41am
Quoting XTrade
Looks possible, not sure about a full 20 USD drop - Main impact tomorrow's news is Core Durable Goods and Unemployment. Unemployment is definitely subject to a skewed, usually positive number around these months due to the holiday help if hired full time, all to be dumped by January! Southside, I'm eyeing up 1236 as the first decisive stop. Yet, with the little bounce back and being that we are closer, I'm looking for a potential break past 1251/2 area which would then negate the short as of yet. so we'll see how London does. If the price does indeed...
Think same, Im more sure about the strength of dollar, which makes me doubtful about this weak uptrend.
  • #29,085
  • Edited 2:14am Nov 27, 2013 1:41am | Edited 2:14am
Hey Buddy,
LOL you know there is no fee to be here.

Everyone is here for a common reason. The exchange of information regarding trading Gold and Silver.

As I mentioned, after my post simply stating to him and all new members to please familiarize yourself with the thread and the first post where the rules are, I received a PM. I sent two more than fair explanations and then received the last two posts. Since he is not able at the moment to explain himself it would not be fair for me to go into further detail.

Again, even disregarding the rules (which are not a big deal) I have set forth, the #1 rule on Fx Factory is respect thy fellow trader.
It was stated that he did not want to post here anymore and then made a tried to make mockery of myself and all the members of this thread which would include you.

If someone can't see how this childish, disruptive and intolerable, then then perhaps the moderators will do a better job.

Sure the market is slow. Yet that does not mean it is time to start useless, space and time wasted unrelated arguments between anyone here.

Right now it is out of my hands. I don't have the patience to be a babysitter.
I hope this makes sense to you.
XT-

BTW: If I put anyone on ignore they cannot post, so in essence to diffuse a potential argument, I have put the matter out of my hands and into that of the moderators.
I was fair and tried. Yet could not get through. So in the end, he will have another opportunity to post again.

Quoting LaLinea
{quote} Hi XTrade, Im new here and looks like I have to pay to be in YOUR thread my friend . How much ? I did not found anything wrong with gemy's posts . As u said - "if you have a PERSONAL gripe or argument with someone take it elsewhere or PUT THEM ON IGNORE". If u show your charts and wright down at list 500 hundred worlds to blame somebody it doesn’t mind that you are right . It’s only your opinion . So please let people to share their views and experience’s with other even are wrong or right for You. Kind Regards LaLinea p.s If you don’t like...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,086
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:41am Nov 27, 2013 1:41am
Quoting XTrade
Looks possible, not sure about a full 20 USD drop - Main impact tomorrow's news is Core Durable Goods and Unemployment. Unemployment is definitely subject to a skewed, usually positive number around these months due to the holiday help if hired full time, all to be dumped by January! Southside, I'm eyeing up 1236 as the first decisive stop. Yet, with the little bounce back and being that we are closer, I'm looking for a potential break past 1251/2 area which would then negate the short as of yet. so we'll see how London does. If the price does indeed...


thanks for the feedback Xtrade im targeting 1230 lets see what happens
  • #29,087
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:44am Nov 27, 2013 1:44am
Quoting TheArcher
Every business day in London, five banks meet to set the price of gold in a ritual that dates back to 1919. The London fix, the benchmark rate used by mining companies, jewelers and central banks to buy, sell and value the metal, is published twice daily after a telephone call involving Barclays Plc (BARC), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Bank of Nova Scotia,HSBC...


This is quite depressing at first glance because one feels that you are trading in a market where you are subject to large movements that are caused by the say-so of a select few. (If I understand the notion of the London Gold Fix correctly). However, looking at the Gold charts over the years from an EW perspective I must say that the wave development is quite "normal"/"standard" - there is nothing that jumps out at me as "Whoa! what's that! This breaks the EW/Fib rules!" No, on the contrary, Gold's PA is quite even-keeled. You just have to compare to a pair like EurUsd or UsdJpy to see the stark difference: those pairs have crazy swings that defy indicators, some PA patterns that appear once and never show up again. Gold is steady and dependable.

I always remind myself that for some decades Gold has not made a correction of this magnitude - the last major downtrend was in 2008 but it's a mini-me of the current Primary wave down! Most of us in the thread are trading in unchartered waters and here close to the bottom we can see it's true for many in the market.

Whether we make a LL for the year or not - and i draw this from the Wave Principle's findings from millions of charts - Gold is a commodity (not a speculative mania like Bitcoin or NetFlix) and that means each bear market is only a partial correction in an ever-upward long term bullmarket.

btw - i cashed out of Bitcoin this morning with a whopping 100% profit on my trade
[/url]
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,088
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:47am Nov 27, 2013 1:47am
Quoting venzen
{quote} This is quite depressing at first glance because one feels that you are trading in a market where you are subject to large movements that are caused by the say-so of a select few. (If I understand the notion of the London Gold Fix correctly). However, looking at the Gold charts over the years from an EW perspective I must say that the wave development is quite "normal"/"standard" - there is nothing that jumps out at me as "Whoa! what's that! This breaks the EW/Fib rules!" No, on the contrary, Gold's PA is quite even-keeled. You just have...
Congs! How you trade Bitcoins?
  • #29,089
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:47am Nov 27, 2013 1:47am
Quoting XTrade
... I feel it's good to encourage tech only traders to try blending fundamentals and news with simplified techs. Sometimes after using a bunch of indicators it is great to just strip the chart naked, maybe adding an sma and some major S/R levels, which more often than not will line up directly with a major fibo swing. Even if one doesn't want to use fundies and news, just being aware of the releases, forecasts and always the underlying fundamentals will greatly increase ones trading. {quote}
knowing a bit about as many analysis methods as possible in the market can only empower you, right?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,090
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:49am Nov 27, 2013 1:49am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Congs! How you trade Bitcoins?
to stay on-topic here, i'm going to refer you to a post i just wrote someone who asked the same question:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post7117144

lot's of fun!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,091
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:50am Nov 27, 2013 1:50am
Quoting venzen
{quote} knowing a bit about as many analysis methods as possible in the market can only empower you, right?
I mean, with which broker?
  • #29,092
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:52am Nov 27, 2013 1:52am
At this point with basically one month left till' year and quarter end, with a bunch of days off here and there,
I don't see either side making any strong commitments, unless they are trickling the orders in to set up for the new year, which is easily possible.

But we've been ranging now for months. So, the "break" for further decision, in no order
case 1: bullish= bottom is in yet, the money is not flowing into the market at the moment to propel further, thus we range, until flow picks up and a new high is made.
case 2: bearish cycle not complete yet and we may have to test 1180 for either completion or new low to set bottom

Overall mid term USDX is pretty bearish and just basically coming up off a fresh multi month low. So it could just be retracement instead of strength.
Take a look at the 5 day and Six month below and 5 year below

The 5 year the price is higher than a couple years ago, yet is basically moving sideways, with what looks to be downside risk. Yet, if we look at the range long term as
say 79/80 to 85 one could say it is at the bottom. Although the lower term even 6mnth suggests otherwise.

Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Think same, Im more sure about the strength of dollar, which makes me doubtful about this weak uptrend.
Attached Images
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,093
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:04am Nov 27, 2013 2:04am
Quoting XTrade
At this point with basically one month left till' year and quarter end, with a bunch of days off here and there, I don't see either side making any strong commitments, unless they are trickling the orders in to set up for the new year, which is easily possible. But we've been ranging now for months. So, the "break" for further decision, in no order case 1: bullish= bottom is in yet, the money is not flowing into the market at the moment to propel further, thus we range, until flow picks up and a new high is made. case 2: bearish cycle not complete...
Hi Xtrade,

Glad to see your analysis. Maybe you misunderstand my statement a bit, what I said about DX is my view on short-term. My argument would be based on analysis of each main pair, while the EUR/USD is in rally sell mode, cable has a high percentage go to down (reduced sell order flow which is now balanced to buy flow, investors begin to question the data quality of UK, and strong resistance seen at 16225), and also the ongoing strength of USD vs emerging currencies. My portfolio on buy USD is making money, and I still see further potential. However next friday's job report will be a key.

For a composite index, I would like to look into each main component. Similar to Stock index. It is still not the time to sell even if it keeps creating new highs.
  • #29,094
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:08am Nov 27, 2013 2:08am
Yes, but think of it like this, although over the years there surely has been some of the info leaked before the fix,

BUT, that would also be the equivalent of someone working at FXCM their own account with example broker, while working with access to their liquidity providers before it goes out to customers. This would be a NO NO! and surely result in immediate dismissal amongst, likely fines, and possible charges of a "white collar crime."

Someone has to set the fix as a benchmark rate instead of random counties having varied prices, New York is different due to the wide variety of Gold trading that goes on here - ie the NYMEX/ COMEX. GLD (even though I believe most of GLD's Gold is in HSBC vaults in LDN) etc. There has to be some kind of confidentiality that the specific people are bound by.

--------------------------------------

Awesome job on BTC! Nice trade! I really am getting interested in this.

Quoting venzen
{quote} This is quite depressing at first glance because one feels that you are trading in a market where you are subject to large movements that are caused by the say-so of a select few. (If I understand the notion of the London Gold Fix correctly). However, looking at the Gold charts over the years from an EW perspective I must say that the wave development is quite "normal"/"standard" - there is nothing that jumps out at me as "Whoa! what's that! ----- Gold is a commodity (not a speculative mania like Bitcoin or NetFlix) and that...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,095
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:10am Nov 27, 2013 2:10am
Quoting spinozagr
The truth is that (with all the respect i have to venzen) Venzen pull the trigger for all this mess telling him that here is not Facebook... My opinion is that we are all old enough to follow someone just because he says something... Better not comment others people opinions even if there is no depth in their view... Just my thoughts.

hi spinozagr,

i understand what you're saying and thanks for saying it the way you did.

perhaps i angered the member by calling his non-stop posts "spam" like on facebook, but the fact is he was posting "now up to 1245", "ok wait a little bit... now down to 1243" and all this without supporting analysis which is unprofessional - I addressed him accordingly. He was atttracting a crowd of equally unprofessional followers who were breaking the Trader's rule "Don't trade someone else's trades" and all this happening at about 2 posts every 5 minutes. You and me know XTrade and our colleagues here, so how is this acceptable in this thread?

His response to me was highly emotional: aggressive and threatening. Empty threats but still worthy of the moderators' attention. Then it came out yesterday that he was looking for vouches to start his own thread and he had already began this project a while ago. Where? on Facebook!

So I take partial responsibility for his departure, but in the end he punched himself in the gut. His departure is not a loss for this thread IMO.

XTrade called the matter closed, so I won't post about it again
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,096
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:11am Nov 27, 2013 2:11am
Totally agree, and that certainly is some stiff resistance on cable. I was waiting to see if it would break but ended up closing my long after a nice ride.
Short term the strength began almost instantaneously after the last multi month low.

Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Hi Xtrade, Glad to see your analysis. Maybe you misunderstand my statement a bit, what I said about DX is my view on short-term. My argument would be based on analysis of each main pair, while the EUR/USD is in rally sell mode, cable has a high percentage go to down (reduced sell order flow which is now balanced to buy flow, investors begin to question the data quality of UK, and strong resistance seen at 16225), and also the ongoing strength of USD vs emerging currencies. My portfolio on buy USD is making money, and I still see further...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #29,097
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:14am Nov 27, 2013 2:14am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} I mean, with which broker?

no broker, it is cheaper and simpler just to deal straight with the exchange and actual Bitcoins (as opposed to a CFD) - i use Mt.Gox
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,098
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:16am Nov 27, 2013 2:16am
XT, what is the timeframe on the bottom-most DXY chart?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,099
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:26am Nov 27, 2013 2:26am
Quoting XTrade
Yes, but think of it like this, although over the years there surely has been some of the info leaked before the fix, BUT, that would also be the equivalent of someone working at FXCM their own account with example broker, while working with access to their liquidity providers before it goes out to customers. This would be a NO NO! and surely result in immediate dismissal amongst, likely fines, and possible charges of a "white collar crime." Someone has to set the fix as a benchmark rate instead of random counties having varied prices, New York...
I guess it's a dilemma that cannot be circumvented, kind of like when I was server sysadmin on some projects with heavy non-disclosure requirements and the project management insisted that no-one knew the full 'root' (administrator) user password ! At some point there's got to be a group or individual that fixes the fix. Yet knowing the way the "Old Country" works - that group is most likely a clique with fingers in all kinds of pies since even before the LME existed. Very much the same dilemma as a bank trader knowing when some massive orders are going to hit the market - wouldn't he or she be foolish not to open sympathetic positions in their own personal trade account?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #29,100
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:29am Nov 27, 2013 2:29am
Quoting LarryLU
{quote} Think same, Im more sure about the strength of dollar, which makes me doubtful about this weak uptrend.

LarryLU, just to understand - are you saying USD strength/weakness translates to XAUUSD going up or down?
cryptocurrency everytime
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