XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

what is your analysis ?.... that the gold price will drop(bearish),or otherwise(bullish) ?

at that point in time , when gold price dropped .

if SPDR Trust's holding of gold dropped , is that another reason for the bearish outlook ?

I suppose , if they have made up their mind to create a double bottom pattern , then 1180 is the last stop before the rally .

on the other hand , if they have decided they have finished fleeceing the market by jacking up price and later dumping them , the price may hover around 1180 +/- for some time ......

wonder what Rhodie's Quantum Mechanics analysis of the Gold Market has to say about the future ?

I'm sorry and then what? It continues on or goes down?

Thanks for the reply.

Hi Archer - these are great observations/analysis. Basically in tune with what I have to offer up as well.

We have had another push down from a meager high area only around 1300 appx 50 bucks south with time to 1245.

Two cases I am looking at:

1 - Continued failure of a close above 1300 / 1310 + will support another move down opening up the possible low of 1180 test but likely towards 1200
in turn opening up the trading range - Longer term - again from 1200 to 1400

2 - Is that this area 1245 will present another minor dip to be bought up and the highs afterwards will be somewhat clouded as the end of the year comes
and thus, almost irrelevant at current. The idea here to pay attention to is - ARE WE BOTTOMING OUT. from lows in 1260 to 1240 area?!

Although the price is on the south side of 1250 at current. Essentially it is back at 1250 where it basically was at 1260 just north.

3 - And I guess the last equation is the mid term downtrend continues into the first quarter.
BUT, the bulls are not foolish. They are not presenting enough highs to be substantially and continually shorted. AND they are still although mildly protecting the
supports.

SO, if the shorts have nothing to short, and it is known that certain supports are indeed bear traps - IE: shorting into a new low- the price will wind up in a coil
while the holidays progress. All later to explode, when volume returns, in a direction we will be able to trade. Meaning orders on both sides of the potential break.

Just a few thoughts.

mighty reversal signal ?

H & S ?

the last three days made me look hard at my trading plan, keeping a blog sure kept my up my toes. Made me reflect harder on things. Switched to multi-timeframe trading intraday from late wednesday on. Refined that some more on thursday and spend today refining it so that in the future I would have a better filter to see the signal from the noise: http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...aytrading.html
bullish short term here.

err...meant to say "is that another reason and an another indicator for the bearish outlook ? "

I have on sliver 19.65 as second last support ... thinking to long sliver near that number for potential take profit 20.50 or even higher! But the resilient of bears make me doubt it will happen.

hi archer, i would like to see some similar...

unlikely but hopefully not impossible

In search of the personal (illusive?) Holy Grail of trading: http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...-personal.html

I wouldn't go off their physical holdings too much as indicator of anything as they are notorious for being wrong or "iffy" to what they actually do hold.

--- Being that customers do not take delivery of GLD shares, as they can on the COMEX it likely fluctuates for other reasons such as simply a drop in price.

1 share of GLD is supposed to mimic the market price of 1/10th of an oz of gold, the fund is required to have a certain amount of the open interest "backed in physical metal" yet there is the first grey area. The custodian of the GLD vaults is HSBC. So they need routine audits by a third party to find out what is actually going on.
The third party offers another grey area, Lastly the "bar list" a third grey area. As there have been reports of lists with duplicate bar numbers for different lots.

Edit: I forgot to mention if the price of Gold drops GLD is then not required to hold as much. Same goes for a rise, they need more if the price rises.

Likewise if the COMEX were to have massive amounts of contracts let go to be taken to physical delivery, this would, to me indicate renewed buying and a need for
physical metal, furthermore, distrust in the institutions as well as inflation fears.

Reports like to say that inflation is not on the table for the US, yet as we go further into debt, with no clear plan, await another debt ceiling agreement and possible
shutdown, all the while inking the press and printing away the problem, or kicking the can down the line, I don't see how inflation is not on the table.

I suppose, if the stock markets crashed and fear from trading assets ensued we could have a move to hoard dollars and thus, deflation.

Thodie,

Nice chart with extra breakout diagram. This is certainly a possibility. I still maintain before the years end we will see a pump, then sort of dump in price as the Q4 and the year ends.
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Yet, do "they" also want to enter the New Year with a price too high, low, or just right. I'd say somewhere in the middle would be just right.
Perhaps something to the affect of a move to 1350 then a pullback to 1295. Just a thought. Not too much time left and next week there is Thanksgiving in the US.
First of the beginning of winter holidays, then December has Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwannza etc. and lastly New Years Day.

So a slew of days off and some extra time taken here and there, leaves unmanned desks and possible lack of large long term positions in either direction being taken.

For this to be a Head and Shoulders reversal it would need to be inverse with the Head as the lowest low.

if his H&S triggers it would form the "3" in my view pretty well. So i hope he´s right.
1160$ is my limit for additional physical buys.

imho 2011 is not compareable to 1980, in 1980 interest rate was so high, nobody need gold for protection against inflation, now in 2013 we have
an interest rate lower then inflation and off course much lower than CPI. So from this Point Gold IS an actually a protection against inflation.
That bringes me to the conclusion that this low is a "short" term one, not compareable to 1980 and a 20year gold bearmarket.

M.Dragi already told that the ECB would be ready for a negative interest rate.

Im no Elliot specialist! It´s difficult to count right on the longer run. But one view makes sence for me!

Based on elliott Wave 3 shows the highest RSI score - and as the Wave 3 in August 11 was extended we had a truncated wave 5 in sep 2012.
As the correction should stand in relation to the previous waves i think the price should start with the next impulse structure in the coming months early 2014.

Any comment by a EW specialist is appreciated!!

Not an EW specialist, but agree.

This bearish trend we have been in since the 1550 / 1750 range broke after the high, 1920 - It broke in April of this year I believe was indeed necessary to
in the long term regain bullish strength likely leading to a new high.

Certainly there are far more driving factors now concerning gold than in the 1980s, when it was basically just jewelry, (hedging by producers/miners) and a store of value against inflation.

Ask venzen or if he will post here infinitus again (which is rare) for his thoughts on your EW count.

Hello everyone.

This is my analysis.

For the next view days I think that we will break the daily inside bar and go up to 1260ish which is 40% fib and trendline.
I have 4hr div and fib extension (25%) to make me bullish in short term.

If I am correct and it turns at 1260 it should hopefully have hidden bearish div to drive it on down.

Look forward to hearing anyone questions if they have any.

wow, two calls for an expert in one day! But in the absence of any expert EW replies I'll give my intermediate-skill interpretation:

thodie, that 2011 top is generally considered the real top, despite the wisdom that wave 3 produces the highest RSI/MACD readings. The RSI max we see at the top is a result of the extension. The acceleration and momentum resulted in PA making an almost exponential curve to the upside - and of course this will register in the indicators as a true maximum. But I'll come back to this after considering our most immediate question: "Where is the bottom and what happens next?"

XTrade and I had a discussion here (about a week ago) about the minimum for this correction in Gold. Trying to find the location of subwave 2 of the extension was my objective, since we know from EW that this is time-and-again the low of any correction following 5th wave extension. But it's hard to pinpoint. My best guesses were 1180 or 1100 for the low. That assumes that we're in a Cycle degree move to the upside and that this is a subwave (of Primary degree) correcting that high to the 2011 top. That high and the wave that made it best fit a Primary degree 3rd wave - so you can see now why that RSI reading is so extreme on the top. After this current wave down from the 2011 top completes (Primary wave 4) We have another blast up in Primary wave 5 (and a lower low on the RSI). Does that make sense so far?

Looking at Gold's chart over the past 40 years there is no other count that "looks right" or locks the degree turnings as well as the count I described above. Hence, I rule out the option that PA is going much lower than 1180 or 1100. At the same time, the Primary wave 4 that we are in is incomplete. My best guess is that we either go down to new lows now, or more likely, go up and down between 1200 and 1400 for a few months to draw out a triangle - which is a typical structure in the 4th wave position.

Positioning 1180-1100 area is a BIG catch Venzen, beware the almighty FED, keep out! I suggest. Gold will lose balance and the catch could hurt some. 1000$ could be a year low, we can laugh, but when Gold hit 2000 mark, it was in matter of days or even a week. The mark stood for nearly a week when started to plunge.

Keep selling copper I think. A good signal for when Gold starts to rise... 3.2x on copper, Gold will rise!

Green always.