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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #28,481
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:54am Nov 19, 2013 10:54am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi gerry, long term (next 2 years) bullish for $2250/oz. medium term (next 2 months) bearish for $1100/oz short term (today) bearish for 1250 for the next hour I expect XAU to hit near 1280 before coming down to 1250. This is just my own notion of PA development over time. How about you?

I unfortunately I do carried away by emotions and I can not figure out anything more, I could use some good advice from those like you who has so much experience. Otherwise risk of doing nothing but trouble and nothing else.

Thanks anyway sometimes bother you!
  • #28,482
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:09am Nov 19, 2013 11:09am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} I wrote in re: to one of your posts on this yesterday Rhodie then lost the whole damn things somehow, This is a good topic, and there used to be a lot of buzz about the creation of an "Americas" currency - north / south and Canada - IF the Cads would ever go for it. emerging markets like Mexico and Brazil would be extremely important in a creation of sorts. I think it is YEARS away from inception if ever, yet if and when the USD does lose it's spot as the reserve - look out! Also, what will happen when we run out of credit again OR rather...
Well, who would have thought that this was the currency of my homeland??? Rhode: Rhodesian: Zimbabwe... et al. I was advising their Gov. on the effects of stagnantion. They refused to listen and now they have no currency at all. Theirs is to trade on USD, Rand, and GBP concurrently. The Reserve Bank of Nothing is what they have now. The priniting presses silent and inkless. USD will cause global destabilisation if they continue to ignore their sovereign debt policies beyond Feb 28th next year. Flight from USD to Euro will cause the Chinese to become more respected and then comes economic takedown of US and other western nation's' policies to subdue Euro strength and begin global implementation of new currencies and consolidation.

A thought.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,483
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:23am Nov 19, 2013 11:23am
Quoting gerry73
{quote} I unfortunately I do carried away by emotions and I can not figure out anything more, I could use some good advice from those like you who has so much experience. Otherwise risk of doing nothing but trouble and nothing else. Thanks anyway sometimes bother you!

Best advice is:

  1. To trade on what you see in front of you. The market tells you what it has done, is doing, but not what it is going to do.
  2. There is no future in trading, only the present moment exists.
  3. You will lose money. It is part of trading. You decide how much you lose through cleverness or stupidity.
  4. Every trader has opposing views to other traders. Opinion means nothing.
  5. Never change your mind halfway through a trade. Be patient. It takes hours to see the market hit the top or bottom of the day. You must watch and wait for that moment.
  6. Never try to guess the future. You will probably be wrong 80% of the time.
  7. When you get a good trade, leave it to work for the whole day if possible without moving your stop more than 15 pips ($1.50) away from your entry. If you stop out, you were wrong. Try again after waiting for a better chance.
  8. When you're stopped out, you're wrong in your assesment of that time. May not be wrong the next time. Be patient.
  9. More advice than you can afford to read is here.
  10. Don't listen to everything, it'll confuse you even more.
  11. Read nothing except the market you want to trade. Forget everything else.

You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,484
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:34am Nov 19, 2013 11:34am
Quoting gerry73
{quote} I unfortunately I do carried away by emotions and I can not figure out anything more, I could use some good advice from those like you who has so much experience. Otherwise risk of doing nothing but trouble and nothing else. Thanks anyway sometimes bother you!

gerry,

no bother - this is what forums are for - especially a trader's forum!

Thing is, as much as I talk and chart confidently, I am nowhere near as experienced as XTrade and some others here. But regarding emotion and getting up to no-good in your trades, here is my advice:

1) Firstly, stop trading right now and think about this: you (and any trader) will lose money while they are learning. So the rational thing to do is to put small amounts of money into your trading account and make the inevitable mistakes with a small amount like $50 or $100. Once you have developed a trading method and style (with rules and a money/risk management system) that show results, only then up the money. But I always say even putting more money in your account won't be necessary if your method and money/risk system is good.

2) You should not trade for a while. Watch the charts and mentally rehearse your orders, SL, TL as well as exits. Note them on paper and see the pattern that emerges after a few days. You will be surprised!

3) Emotion is bypassed when you have a mechanical method. There is no shame in having emotions in the market. Sometimes, from either fear or sheer adrenaline, I shake after opening a trade. But don't let the emotion prompt you to open orders. Open an order only when you have ticked off a checklist of prerequisites justifying the trade: eg. Price at a Resistance level - check, Stochastic at overbought - check, RSI has diverged - check, etc. @mrmalik posted an excellent list of rules a few hours ago.

4) study a new method before trading again. have a rule set and have a money and risk management strategy document to guide you. Study and research these things if you don't know what they are exactly. write in a journal every day.

trading is methodical and meant to be a boring job, enjoy your research and your wins, feel your losses and learn from them. read this doc by an anonymous trader:

http://ubuntuone.com/6dDZAOb15bNXhAM4xWt1dN
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,485
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:44am Nov 19, 2013 11:44am
Quoting gerry73
{quote} I unfortunately I do carried away by emotions and I can not figure out anything more, I could use some good advice from those like you who has so much experience. Otherwise risk of doing nothing but trouble and nothing else. Thanks anyway sometimes bother you!

apologies for double posting, but just to add: you mention emotion as the culprit, but bear in mind that (as XTrade regularly point out) this is Gold. Gold is a monster instrument and will rock your account and trading confidence if you are not familiar with it and you don't have a money management strategy. Also the past 2 weeks has seen some irratic PA due to Gold entering a contention zone where there is lots of indecision and strange behaviour - between 1250 and 1350 - it is evident from earlier this year's PA at these levels as well as back in 2010.
!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,486
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:55am Nov 19, 2013 11:55am
When you get emotional, get a dog leash and find a dog to walk in the park for a couple hours. The dog will love it, your trading account will enjoiy a break from the bashing and you woun't lose any more on your trades while you are gone if you hae set up the correct side of the market move.

Trends change. you will too. don't let fear of change be your downfall. Fear is good. It's what makes you do the wrong thing, so get scared and get in. Losing is a part of life. If you don't lose, you can't win. If you don't win, you can try again next time.

Remember this:

Some are winners all the time. Some are losers all the time. Most are are winners and loser all the time.

2.2% are winners all the time. 50% are losers all the time. 47.8% are are winners and losers all the time.

This means that 26.1% are winners and 73.9% are losers leaving a median average of 47.8% traders not making a profit at all and just breaking even on average.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,487
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:18pm Nov 19, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} To trade on what you see in front of you. The market tells you what it has done, is doing, but not what it is going to do. More advice than you can afford to read is here. Read nothing except the market you want to trade. Forget everything else.
The Mother of all Questions is :

HOW do u know WHAT the market is telling you , what it has done and what it is not going to do ?

HOW to read the market ?

if the Holy Grail answer is known to the above Questions , then only the above 11 point advice makes sense .... which is purely common sense !
  • #28,488
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:20pm Nov 19, 2013 12:20pm
for fun .... testing ...testing ...
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  • #28,489
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:33pm Nov 19, 2013 12:33pm
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  • #28,490
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:41pm Nov 19, 2013 12:41pm
very neat chart
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  • #28,491
  • Edited 1:59pm Nov 19, 2013 12:50pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting TheArcher
{quote} The Mother of all Questions is : HOW do u know WHAT the market is telling you , what it has done and what it is not going to do ? HOW to read the market ? if the Holy Grail answer is known to the above Questions , then only the above 11 point advice makes sense .... which is purely common sense !
Archer,

exactly. I don't believe the market tells anyone what it wants to do. That's, IMO, an idea people get after a successful trade - next trade they end up perplexed: "but just before the market was talking to me! now i got stopped out... why?".

I think what that wisdom is saying is: when you are in PA behaviour that you're familiar with you will sense the next move and should trade that. This is my experience anyway. There are certain PA patterns that repeat and when I identify them I trade with confidence. But trade a piece of action I haven't seen many times before (or don't recognise or mistake for "familiar PA") I end up stopping out.

I've encountered people here at FF who claim to trade "pure PA" (PPA they call it) - part of the belief system is that you can't predict what PA is going to do the next second so no point in trying to predict - well, anyway, i don't know what that's all about because at some point in your trading day you have identify to your moment and commit to a direction (predict up or down for profit) and pull the trigger.

I'm not a tennis fan or a Federer fan but I heard him say once: "you've got to play your percentages" and i thought about that and it's true: to win you have to study your opponent's game and identify the gaps where you can play to your advantage. So i spend 90% of my trading time with Gold and I study it and number crunch it and peer at the chart looking for patterns. I can't say i've "mastered" and maybe will never but there are patterns and impulsive downside has different patterning than corrective downside, for example.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,492
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:55pm Nov 19, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting TheArcher
{quote} The Mother of all Questions is : HOW do u know WHAT the market is telling you , what it has done and what it is not going to do ? HOW to read the market ? if the Holy Grail answer is known to the above Questions , then only the above 11 point advice makes sense .... which is purely common sense !
I have a system. A serious system. There is nothing else like it on the planet. You cannot buy it. It has not been sold (yet). It may be leased in the future for about $500 a week per user. It cost the developer over £2 million from money it earned (them, cannot say if male or female) in a 6 year span. The entire thing runs on MT4. I am learning how to use it properly before it coes commercial as I am the future tech support for the system. The system shows what the market is doing from 1 minute to 1 week charts. I run 6 monitors with 10 charts showing different markets and collate the data into a winning trade. currently I'm trying to work out how to use that trade explorer thing, so then I caould post my trades up on the forums too.

Today Eur:Jpy said to buy at it said to buy @134.74 and It's still going strong with 81 pips profit. Imagine a trade with £1100... but it's only £11. Built in recognition systems and data extapolation that shows convergences and historical theoreticals. It is based loosely on quantum mechanics theory.

"Schrödinger's cat is a thought experiment, sometimes described as a paradox, devised by Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger in 1935. It illustrates what he saw as the problem of the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics applied to everyday objects. The scenario presents a cat that may be both alive and dead, depending on an earlier random event. Although the original "experiment" was imaginary, similar principles have been researched and used in practical applications. The thought experiment is also often featured in theoretical discussions of the interpretations of quantum mechanics. In the course of developing this experiment, Schrödinger coined the term Verschränkung (entanglement)."

Reworded and applied to this:

Schrödinger's cat is a thought experiment, sometimes described as a paradox, devised by Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger in 1935. It illustrates what he saw as the problem of the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum mechanics applied to trading markets. The scenario presents a market that may be both bull and bear, depending on an earlier random event. Although the original "experiment" was imaginary, similar principles have been researched and used in practical applications. The thought experiment is also often featured in theoretical discussions of the interpretations of quantum mechanics. In the course of developing this experiment, Schrödinger coined the term Verschränkung (entanglement).

Now we see the sense of the program...
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,493
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:37pm Nov 19, 2013 1:37pm
sounds like a great piece of software, Rhodie. Best wishes for its success.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,494
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:39pm Nov 19, 2013 1:39pm
today's PA reminds me of that move "Avatar" where the guy spends months in a cryogenic sleep-tank. When i got up to get some coffee just now my legs wouldn't work!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,495
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:57pm Nov 19, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} I have a system. A serious system. There is nothing else like it on the planet. You cannot buy it. It has not been sold (yet). It may be leased in the future for about $500 a week per user. It cost the developer over £2 million from money it earned (them, cannot say if male or female) in a 6 year span. The entire thing runs on MT4. I am learning how to use it properly before it coes commercial as I am the future tech support for the system. The system shows what the market is doing from 1 minute to 1 week charts. I run 6 monitors with 10...
Seems interesting system. Will you plz tell us what the system predicts for gold?
Thanks

BTW, immediately after today's fall to 1269, I got another long position from 1270. This is because I FEEL the market is going down, and I REASON it's going up. wanted to go against my feeling this time.
  • #28,496
  • Nov 19, 2013 2:07pm Nov 19, 2013 2:07pm
Hi Venzen,

I am trying to make a simple EW count for the fall from 1350s. I don't know if PA has already completed a 5-W down movement, as shown in the 4H chart below.
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  • #28,497
  • Edited 2:28pm Nov 19, 2013 2:15pm | Edited 2:28pm
Quoting Gold-lover
Hi Venzen, I am trying to make a simple EW count for the fall from 1350s. I don't know if PA has already completed a 5-W down movement, as shown in the 4H chart below. {image}

you're getting the idea but should check the Rules for an Impulse: wave 3 is never the shortest wave.

I'm not sure what the count is coming down, I'm waiting for tomorrow and Thursday's PA to print before I could try a count.

I'm not saying the following chart is correct but the counting is by the rules!

edit: what makes Gold tricky is that motive (trending) waves sometimes unfold as "diagonal" waves - they are impulses (12345) but each of those 5 waves subdivide into 3 subwaves (labeled abc), so: wave 1 = a (3 or 5 subwaves) + b (3 subwaves) + c (always 5 subwaves), and then the same for the remaining waves 2, 3, 4 and 5.

edit: I just replaced the previous chart with my own for legal reasons

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,498
  • Nov 19, 2013 2:42pm Nov 19, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting Gold-lover
Hi Venzen, I am trying to make a simple EW count for the fall from 1350s. I don't know if PA has already completed a 5-W down movement, as shown in the 4H chart below. {image}

on your chart, i believe that apex made by the 2 TLs you have drawn is significant. In time, it roughly coincides with the time of Benjamin Bernanke's speech later. You can also see PA is working it's way into that apex... it's usually the case that those apexes cause PA to thrust in one direction or the other. I don't know which direction and won't try to guess but let's see what happens.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,499
  • Nov 19, 2013 2:58pm Nov 19, 2013 2:58pm
Micro B in your chart should have already taken place, I guess. But I believe it truly makes sense. A down movement now should be preceded by some retracement to 1300, or thereabout.

The apex in my chart is like a pressured Cola bottle, waiting to blow up in either direction. I think this is going to be the point where surprises are lurking behind, for the next day is pregnant with a number of motives.

Already placed stop for my long position at exactly the same buying price 1270. Hope Bernanke will not make it hit again !!
  • #28,500
  • Nov 19, 2013 2:59pm Nov 19, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting seaman2
proudly waiting at 1288 to fill my shorts. then, lets hope for new lows :nerd:
no action.

step back & rethink.
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