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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #28,461
  • Nov 19, 2013 8:57am Nov 19, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Zacksama
Anyone here use demark trendline?
yes, there is one trader, oztrader i think is his pseudo
he seems to be away, the rest of us just marvel at the pretty colors he makes
  • #28,462
  • Nov 19, 2013 8:59am Nov 19, 2013 8:59am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} A 20 year view of gold. This is history in a chart. You must click on the image and have a close look at the fib levels. Very interesting. Very informative. Someone mentioned that we might remain rangebound until close of the year. Maybe. Market says otherwise. 80% chance we go down, 20% chance we go up. To go up requires some extremely interesting developments on the world staqge that will cause such fear and panic that we head back up like in 2011. There is an amazing parallel with global credit availability and that is the pink line that...
Hi mate, can you share with me the template for this chart???

Thanks on Advanced
  • #28,463
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:06am Nov 19, 2013 9:06am
Quoting JayPipin
{quote} yes, there is one trader, oztrader i think is his pseudo he seems to be away, the rest of us just marvel at the pretty colors he makes
thank jay.
still newbie regarding the indicator system.
  • #28,464
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:11am Nov 19, 2013 9:11am
Quoting bugsbunny110
{quote} Hi mate, can you share with me the template for this chart??? Thanks on Advanced

I will develop it further before I share it, if I decide to share it. May be legal issues there.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,465
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:41am Nov 19, 2013 9:41am
Gold is at a key level here and trapped between 2 opposing 0.382 fib levels. The question the markets are in dilemma over where to invest their profits. The markets have taken off upwards over the last ew yeras with the influence of the affluent chinese middle-class who have done nothing more than spend, spend, spend from their income earned from trade deficit with the whole planet. When China reigns in spending, then US will feel the pinch. The western markets will begin to shrink and then to combat the decline in global business, China will begin to cost more than in the past, but corporate profits will ultimately determine the future of global investments. The rich are getting filthy rich and there are new laws that should prevent people from holding too much wealth in one investment for too long.

Money needs to circulate. When it accumulates in one place it causes inflation and market stagnation. My experience with hyperinflation and advising governments has borne this truth out. gold changes in value because it needs to be invested in and divested out of too. Without that change, there is no gold market. With the divestment of gold, where does that money go? Money does not disappear, it can be diluted, but not destroyed. Deflation is concentration, and inflation is dilution of value. Price inflation occurs when demand exceeds supply rate. Price deflation occurs when supply exceeds demand and when demand changes product.

Have a look at Euro:JPY chart with the years showing level gold was at in comparison. I will post a chart showing USD:JPY at some point. comparing gold.

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You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,466
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:48am Nov 19, 2013 9:48am
A question for y'all.

If you look at the USD/YEN daily chart, the rise of the dollar for the last 12 months correlates closely with the falling gold price. The Yen chart has broken north out of a daily triangle (i.e. falling in value) and clearly has quite a way to travel, minimum target 107, currently 100.

My point is, this is a clear and highly reliable pattern that appears to be on course. I don't see how gold can bottom and start a fresh bull market in the face of this. I am aware of the shortcomings of intermarket correlations, but this nonetheless appears to be as plain as the proverbial nose on one's face. Can anyone produce a factual argument that the USD/Yen won't dominate gold for the next while?
  • #28,467
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:07am Nov 19, 2013 10:07am
A lot of money in equities tied up right now, not flowing in and out of gold.

Market remains in tight range.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,468
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:10am Nov 19, 2013 10:10am
Why would the USD/YEN dominate gold? The USDX fell yesterday and Gold fell as well, so if there are correlation breakdowns, they are better off swept aside.

The main correlation and push pull is between the dollar as a basket, HENCE, USDX value and Gold.

Sometimes they are inverse - sometimes converse - sometimes nonsense!


Quoting Smithy1
A question for y'all. If you look at the USD/YEN daily chart, the rise of the dollar for the last 12 months correlates closely with the falling gold price. The Yen chart has broken north out of a daily triangle (i.e. falling in value) and clearly has quite a way to travel, minimum target 107, currently 100. My point is, this is a clear and highly reliable pattern that appears to be on course. I don't see how gold can bottom and start a fresh bull market in the face of this. I am aware of the shortcomings of intermarket correlations, but this nonetheless...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,469
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:13am Nov 19, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Smithy1
A question for y'all. If you look at the USD/YEN daily chart, the rise of the dollar for the last 12 months correlates closely with the falling gold price. The Yen chart has broken north out of a daily triangle (i.e. falling in value) and clearly has quite a way to travel, minimum target 107, currently 100. My point is, this is a clear and highly reliable pattern that appears to be on course. I don't see how gold can bottom and start a fresh bull market in the face of this. I am aware of the shortcomings of intermarket correlations, but this nonetheless...
Yes, Flight from USD as reserve currency. Euro is a temporary flight and gold is not performing as well, so maybe a new reserve is going to kick in soon, relatively speaking.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,470
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:17am Nov 19, 2013 10:17am
basically what I'm trying to say is that you may at any point discover a correlation with Gold and another instruments, Dow, SP, DXY, Brent, Euro, etc.

Yet, at some point there will be a breakdown and indeed derail any trades you are taking based solely on correlation studies.

So it - again in my opinion - when valuing / forecasting gold it is necessary to look at the other driving factors that affect the metal on any given week.
Supply / Demand - New Mining - Central Bank Purchases / Sales, simple fundamentals, News releases USD especially related as GOld is settled in USD.
There are many factors. The correlations can be helpful but in recent years gold really has become it's own Beast.

Many times best not tethered to anything.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,471
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:23am Nov 19, 2013 10:23am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Yes, Flight from USD as reserve currency. Euro is a temporary flight and gold is not performing as well, so maybe a new reserve is going to kick in soon, relatively speaking.
I wrote in re: to one of your posts on this yesterday Rhodie then lost the whole damn things somehow,

This is a good topic, and there used to be a lot of buzz about the creation of an "Americas" currency - north / south and Canada - IF the Cads would ever go for it.
emerging markets like Mexico and Brazil would be extremely important in a creation of sorts.

I think it is YEARS away from inception if ever, yet if and when the USD does lose it's spot as the reserve - look out!

Also, what will happen when we run out of credit again OR rather NO want's what may become downgraded DEBT from the US!!!!

It will likely be Yellen who INKS the Press and sends the USD into inflation - printing away the problems, with the possibility of hyperinflation.

Here's a lil reminder - Not saying US notes are going this far, yet...
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,472
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:31am Nov 19, 2013 10:31am
Quoting Smithy1
A question for y'all. If you look at the USD/YEN daily chart, the rise of the dollar for the last 12 months correlates closely with the falling gold price. The Yen chart has broken north out of a daily triangle (i.e. falling in value) and clearly has quite a way to travel, minimum target 107, currently 100. My point is, this is a clear and highly reliable pattern that appears to be on course. I don't see how gold can bottom and start a fresh bull market in the face of this. I am aware of the shortcomings of intermarket correlations, but this nonetheless...

hi Smithy,

could you perhaps explain what you mean by UJ dominating Gold - do you mean UJ rising and Gold price falling?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,473
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:36am Nov 19, 2013 10:36am
regarding Brazil and Mexico and an "Americas currency": as far as I understand the BRICS countries are in the process of forming a BRICS bank with a common currency - not sure how such currency will be chosen or used (Rouble or Yuan?) - but that plan's implimentation is fairly imminent and would challenge the status of the Dollar as international reserve. Another thing: I believe the currency will be backed by Gold... perhaps why China is ramping up reserves?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,474
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:39am Nov 19, 2013 10:39am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Smithy, could you perhaps explain what you mean by UJ dominating Gold - do you mean UJ rising and Gold price falling?

Can I ask you a question but are you bullish or bearish on gold?

Thanks for the reply.
  • #28,475
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:47am Nov 19, 2013 10:47am
Quoting gerry73
{quote} Can I ask you a question but are you bullish or bearish on gold? Thanks for the reply.
hi gerry,


long term (next 2 years) bullish for $2250/oz.

medium term (next 2 months) bearish for $1100/oz

short term (today) bearish for 1250

for the next hour I expect XAU to hit near 1280 before coming down to 1250.

This is just my own notion of PA development over time. How about you?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,476
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:50am Nov 19, 2013 10:50am
The talk was of a unified currency of north south america and canada/ how central would fit in I don't remember. There is a name for it as welll.....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,477
  • Edited 11:02am Nov 19, 2013 10:50am | Edited 11:02am
connected to the earlier discussion about Bitcoin, another interesting development is that the bulk of Bitcoin transactions now originate from China, so in a sense, it does not matter what US regulators decree, since it appears Chinese authorities condone the crypto-currency, if they are not perhaps buying at institutional level.

source website: http://thegenesisblock.com/category/news/

Attached Image
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,478
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:52am Nov 19, 2013 10:52am
at NOON I am doubting anywhere near a move to 1250 at best 1265.

IMO,

Gotta run out see you fellas later.

XT-
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,479
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:53am Nov 19, 2013 10:53am
Sh!t Rhodie I found it.. Unfinished but you get the point.

This was a discussion on Bloomberg this AM.

At this point, and with all the past and really still current economic turmoil globally it is not too far fetched of a possibility.

If and when the US finally runs out of credit, which as you had already mentioned many countries are moving away from having the USD as their primary (or at least decreasing it's prevalence) in their FX holdings. What would occur? Well, likely Yellen would continue in the process of inking the press up and just printing their way
out of the problem. Which in turn would create inflation or possibly hyperinflation. This would send metals skyrocketing.

There are ways for the US to get out of this mess, yet nothing seems to be being put forth besides bandaids.

For instance the Government shutdown was a huge deal (and eye opener IMO) a few weeks ago. Now it is the last thing on the news and anyones mind.

YET the SAME! problem is going to come up shortly again. The debt ceiling.

The possibility of having a currency of the America's Ie: South (emerging markets especially, Brazil, Mexico etc, North and Canada (if the Cads would even consider it) may become again a very real possibility of moving forward and having more sound and global currency.
We'll see!



Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Actually, in order for the USD to fail, it would mean a global currency collapse for the whole planet. Economies would break and China would have a huge problem on it's hands. This kind of thing would likely lead to war breaking out and nobody to stop it. Metals would likely not mean anything as few could afford to buy it anyway. This is the big problm with US debt... They've borrowed from the future beyond their lifetimes and their great grandchildren's life times and there is no credit left to sell.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,480
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:54am Nov 19, 2013 10:54am
Hi XTrade!

Publish this GC 240 if you want:

http://www.screencast.com/t/UDNBOxvb2KB

As well as the Daily am watching support at the blue sliding parallel and maybe the lower parallel below. Note how price has moved from the median line of the blue fork to the lower parallel via the green trend lines.... It has stepped down in the red fork and am watching this for evidence of change of behaviour.....

Reminder that I am holding a free webinar on Wednesday – it will be recorded and registrants will be able to view it later if unable to attend. Register: http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7293

Ben

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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