XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

economic forecast! funny because it's true (especially us traders)

how about "Fighting for Peace"

oh Buddha, I just thought of this one that plagues us all: "Trading for Profit"...

thinking of Ghandi: "Satchiagranda" - "Passive Resistance"

kind of like "Passive Aggressive" !

HAHAHAHAH!

Have a bunch of those I thought we could enjoy either tomorrow or next weekend!!!

Glad you got a kick out of it.

In any case- the SYM-T is definite at this point, especially due to year's end.

I am keeping tight trades, and holding my 1267 cause I may not see it again.

If and when I do, honestly, I could care less if the price hits 1180 again, unless it closes below I will either TP on half of my trade on a high or take a loss and buy back lower... Then, as you are forecasting, we can go up.

Yet, after some definitive Gold and Silver analysis combined with the low in (as of now) for silver, I am forecasting breaks north on both
GOLD and SILVER for 2014....

So, when is the time to get long? When the triangle breaks? off monthly lows? off support? or stay bearish.

I tend to be aggressive and take the low I think, and only I think might get hit, subsequently for not being in a fill area or what I like to call the
"congestion" area where the line on the 3 day meets up, my entry was TOO CHEAP, and I had r to market order a fill 1267 10 USD higher a move.

Not the best trading on my part, yet I am willing to risk what I have set out to so I don't care anymore.
Need to have detachment from charts and MONEY.

Always the more patient I am with a well planned trade I end up in profit.
When I don't plan as well, well, I either take a minor loss by moving my stop - which BTW I AM SOOOOOO AGAINST.
Then the market usually moves my direction..

This is precisely the reason I URGE NOOBS to LOWER LEVERAGE AND LOT SIZE if you want to trade Gold/Silver.
This market can wipe you out faster than GBP/JPY - without proper stops and use of RR - trade placement, as well as TPs.

Patience and Trust in yourself.

They are all sort of OXYs --- Sort of ridiculous huh?

I mean I even called myself out on saying the 200SMA is "almost guaranteed" - WTF does that mean!!!
I know what I believe it to mean, but there is no SUCH thing as an "almost guarantee" yet, in a trader's mind it does make kind of sense.

Meaning really, "Usually on Higher Time Frame charts the price will retest the sma200"

What would sell better is the phrase "almost guaranteed" in the right terminology.

But the one I like best from your quote is "KNOWN UNKNOWS" I mean WTF is going on there?!!>? It simply CANNOT be both.
Thus, I love reading these.

Till' morrow'
XT

SORRY! I had too. JUST 2 GOOD.

RANDOM ORDER!!!!!!!!!!!

RECENT HISTORY!

ROARING SILENCE!

LOVE this ONE

GOOD MORNING!!! &*(*&^ all trader's should like that!

and for the metal and golf fans.

GRAPHITE IRONS!!!!!!!!!!

LOL
Good,nite,morning, all.....

thanks for those!

'Night XT and see you later.

Right, Gold in a triangle. Let's go...

There is not enough evidence (for my analysis) to say that Gold is definitely in a triangle chart formation. If this is the early stages of triangle development then we can extrapolate what the potential structure and outcomes may be, as well as the points of failure that will invalidate the idea. Firstly, an updated diagram showing the two types of structures that make a contracting "wedge" shape on our charts:

http://ubuntuone.com/0ASDxDXVgX2wCO1J276y0d

We know the structure in question is not a diagonal because a diagonal advances the existing trend with each subwave. This is not what we're seeing - instead we are seeing a horizontal contraction that is not making new lows with each push. So altho' not conclusive, that is some evidence for a triangle.

Note with a triangle that its function is to consolidate PA before continuing in the direction of trend. This means that the triangle we are expecting will breakout to the downside at the conclusion of subwave "e". Also note that a triangle count starts with the first reactionary wave (opposite to overall trend). In the downtrend example above, Wave "A" (uppercase) is not included in the triangle structure: we start counting 5 zigzagging waves with the reactionary subwave "a" (lowercase). The endpoint of wave "A" may or MAY NOT co-incide with the triangle TLs.

Here are two scenarios for a triangle structure in Gold. I'll discuss each below.

http://ubuntuone.com/77RFl1RvotetScR8k6k9JG

Scenario 1 is what I am seeing a lot of people drawing on their charts - this is feasible but I have two technical concerns with this scenario.

1) the initial subwave [a] (to the upside) is puny compared to the rest of the subsequent subwaves. So whatorry for you if that's your misconception, but wave degree is real ? some may say, and my answer requires some EW background: a triangle's subwaves are always all of the same degree. Degree discussion loses a lot of people because it seems arcane and like too much hard work. Well, suffice to say that degree is simply evidenced by the fractal nature of PA. So a wave has subwaves of different self-similar degrees, but a triangle being a wave structure that consists of 5 subwaves - each subwave (a,b,c,d and e) must be of the same degree. Had the triangle been of the "expanding" variety we would expect to see each subwave grow in size (though retaining similar degree) but in this case we have a small subwave [a] followed by two larger subwaves [b] and [c] and then smaller subwaves again. That is just atypical of what i know about triangles. In the first scenario, subwave [a] just represents a technical anomaly in the context of subsequent waves.

2) subwave (b) of subwave [d] has breached the lower TL. This is not a punishable offence but casts doubts on the validity of that TL. Typically the last subwave [e] is the one that does the "breaching" before it thrusts through the triangle and out the other side in the breakout.

So for me scenario 1 is unlikely and technically unsatisfying.

Scenario 2 involves altering the count by moving the end of wave 3 to the 2013 low. Subsequent PA is then in a recognisable triangle formation and the TLs show a more familiar picture. According to this scenario we are in the final subwave [e] of the triangle. We can expect it to breach the upper TL to complete the triangle (wave 4) before dropping stone-like to new lows in the ultimate wave of decline, wave 5. Triangle theory also tells us that the low will be struck around the end of subwaves [b] and [c] and then smaller subwaves again. That is just atypical of what i know about triangles. In the first scenario, subwave [a] just represents a technical anomaly in the context of subsequent waves.

2) subwave (b) of subwave [d] has breached the lower TL. This is not a punishable offence but casts doubts on the validity of that TL. Typically the last subwave [e] is the one that does the "breaching" before it thrusts through the triangle and out the other side in the breakout.

So for me scenario 1 is unlikely and technically unsatisfying.

Scenario 2 involves altering the count by moving the end of wave 3 to the 2013 low. Subsequent PA is then in a recognisable triangle formation and the TLs show a more familiar picture. According to this scenario we are in the final subwave [e] of the triangle. We can expect it to breach the upper TL to complete the triangle (wave 4) before dropping stone-like to new lows in the ultimate wave of decline, wave 5. Triangle theory also tells us that the low will be struck around the end of December or beginning Jan 2014 where the triangle TLs form an apex in time.

Scenario 2 is technically sound and contextually plausible but my one concern about it is that it is too simple. Where is the catch? The market, by it's nature, will seek to fool the majority almost every time. Granted, we have not heard that "Gold is in a triangle" from the mainstream analysts, so it may be that the simplicity is the catch! Perhaps most people are simply overlooking it?

Warning: Before you open positions based on the above analysis, be careful of the tendency of triangles to permutate over time. The triangle in scenario 2 looks straight forward but it can easily form another triangle inside this triangle to "buy time" or even break lower and re-establish the lower TL boundaries. I would not trade current triangle PA but rather its breakout.[/b][/b]

Gold in a triangle (part II)

If Gold is in a triangle then we need more confirmation. There are also likely invalidating factors if:

1) PA breaks below the lower TL and does not return...

2) PA breaks too far above the upper TL without reversing violently to the downside...

3) PA does not make 5 clear touchpoints on alternating sides of the triangle TLs.

This could easily be an ABC structure that just looks like a triangle because PA is respecting the descending TL (red) from the previous high way over on the top left of the chart. However, it's better to explore our options and be ready if triangle is, in fact, the game. I'll repeat again that this is extrapolation and not prediction - I do not intend (or advise) to trade any of these scenarios except at the moment of the "money-shot" - when subwave [e] crosses the TL and abruptly reverses into a thrust in the opposite direction AND the unfolding wave is impulsive. If the supposed subwave [e] carries on going without reversing then I will reconsider my count as i do every few days.

Here are two more scenarios - the last one (scenario 4) turns the triangle on it's head and shows how it may result in a thrust to the upside. Only considering one side of a scenario in any situation is a good way to fund your broker!

Some comments are posted below the charts.

http://ubuntuone.com/7QnOAfveswjqOznTsxOSf8

Scenario 3 draws out the triangle development. This is possible given the uneasy "new normal" dominating markets, the winding-down time of year as well as ongoing tussle between bulls and bears.

I like scenario 4 because it explains a lot of the recent mess in PA. This scenario proposes that the previous decline is over and that we are in the early stages of the new bull market already. The tussling around current levels is a result of the bears still having some conviction left over from their previous dominance. Yet the tide is turning and the .618 retracement of the 1st wave up is acting as a support floor. The retracement target of 62% was reached months ago but the rassling & indecision for new direction is resulting in sideways consolidation - typical conditions for triangle formation. The resulting structure is an expanding traingle where the last subwave [e] usually does not reach the target TL before reversing suddenly in the opposite direction.

I would love to see this happen because it will go a long way to clarifying where we are in the bigger picture of the past few years' decline ! However, this is pure speculation as there is no conclusive evidence confirming this scenario yet. Confirmation will only come with a sharp reversal and PA heading above 1350 in an impulsive manner.

this is not a prediction but: if this happens (full line) then I will get short and hope for (dotted line).

chart is 4 hour wave c prediction and daily abcde triangle prediction,please check.
after all it is just a prediction, might be all wrong, will continue check pa, Thanks.

I agree silver can sometimes boost a lot of money but it is not as stable as gold thats why I quit trading silver and doubled the gold trading, I still check silver chart as it help me to determine gold's direction sometimes.

hi fxjay,

glad to see you're learning the EW!

wave C always has 5 waves, except when it's in a triangle where it has 3 waves. So up to your first label "5" would be wave C and then you have a correction and another 5 waves. So effectively you have wave C and then wave D and then wave E.

All this is valid but the count would have to be changed to 1-2-3-4-5 (instead of a-b-c-d-e). Such a-b-c-d-e labels are always reserved for triangles (such as outlined in my previous 2 posts). However, depending on wave development, I might drop the idea of this being wave C and switch to a regular impulse count (1-2-3-4-5). Remember that whenever you reach the end of 5 you have to give the whole sequence a higher degree label (such as C or 1 or wherever wave development is at the bigger timeframes)

edit: it helps to start at the biggest TF (like weekly) and count and label that; then work down to daily, H4, etc since you'll have an idea of the bigger picture to help you determine what wave the smaller TFs are in and what they're working toward.

Hi XT,

Sorry for the late reply as I am resting for the week ahead! (I realized how resting is VERY important)

Thank you so much for this explanation about the GSR. Now I have a better understanding on why sometimes Silver chart "leads" the gold (or vice versa) based on the push and pull you just explained.

Back to resting for now. Will be posting tomorrow

Good night all!
-dric

Are there any markets available online where gold is traded during weekend so that one can forecast what will happen on Monday?

Every thing is closed.
IMHO, the nearest thing to do is play the opening gap, if any.

hi Muntu & jimmij,

well, you could try the "digital Gold" - Bitcoin - it trades all weekend and has reached the dizzy bubble high of $500/BTC a few minutes ago!

a gap up would be good - it's usually what happens when a contention level (like 1290.x) get's in the way - so if the open can pop Gold over 1300 we're in for a good week what with Wednesday and Thurs being critical data overload on the calendar!

Good Luck for the week.

Is anyone here Short Sliver / Gold early November? ...

No, thanks, I do not understand this virtual "currency". Why should I buy bitcoin and not jimcoin or vencoin?