XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread | Page 1413 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

Gold/USD, Silver/USD

Similar Threads

Gold futures & XAU 78 replies

GoldenEuro Cross (XAU/EUR) GoldenAussi Cross (XAU/AUD) 51 replies

Daytrade - XAU/USD & XAG/USD 14 replies

XAU/JPY & XAG/JPY 13 replies

Successful XAU/USD traders 7 replies

Attachments: XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
Exit Attachments

XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #28,241
  • Nov 16, 2013 1:44pm Nov 16, 2013 1:44pm
To Mr. Ranjeet,

you are basically flat on silver if I remember it was 20.80 yet have some gains on Gold.

Look at the Sunday Aussie/Asian session yet and if it looks like there is some follow through,

AND----- ONLY AND --> your account can hold it,
I would ride through London and into NY to see if 1300 gets cracked.

Also- you can set your Gold position to ENTRY + 3 USD or "BE" break even +3 for a small scalp if you cant ride the trades,
being that you are risking --- If I am not confusing you with someone else --- a large portion of your account,
no matter what happens, I would suggest taking some small profits ie: 3, 5 10 USD moves from your entry for gold,
and be wary of silver. Could have upside potential but is flat. Take a look at the Price Action on Friday.
below.

DEAD as a doornail.
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,242
  • Nov 16, 2013 3:43pm Nov 16, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting XTrade
To Mr. Ranjeet, you are basically flat on silver if I remember it was 20.80 yet have some gains on Gold. Look at the Sunday Aussie/Asian session yet and if it looks like there is some follow through, AND----- ONLY AND --> your account can hold it, I would ride through London and into NY to see if 1300 gets cracked. Also- you can set your Gold position to ENTRY + 3 USD or "BE" break even +3 for a small scalp if you cant ride the trades, being that you are risking --- If I am not confusing you with someone else --- a large portion of your account,...
Dear X-Trade,

You are awesome sir! Thanks for all the help and advice. I have this question since gold wasn't able to cross 1290 on friday and came down to 1287 and reverted back to close at 1290, doesn't that show bears still have momentum as bulls haven't been able to go through important resistance (92-95) even after Yellen remarks and weak US data pointing to lesser chances of QE? Also it had given up the important support levels easily in the past few weeks
  • #28,243
  • Nov 16, 2013 8:41pm Nov 16, 2013 8:41pm
OK may-be time for some charts... or at least by tomorrow night!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,244
  • Nov 16, 2013 8:58pm Nov 16, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting XTrade
Hey V buddy, same to you mate! Just quickly before I can make up any charts, why are you in question as to what the low for GOLD is? If you look at a candle chart, and just to round to nearest whole dollars, The wick was the only extension to hit 1180 (reaction low) The body, did indeed suggest and maintain a firm support in the 1200 (odd cause it's round) price point. So if you use a line chart, 1180 is actually not even represented. This is why I sometimes draw trend lines using the bodies and disregarding the wicks altogether especially on long...

hi XTrade,

I get what you are saying about the reaction low vs the nominal low for this year. Perhaps I didn't explain clearly what I was seeing from the charts:

There is an empirical rule that has been established in EW that, following an extended wave to the upside (such as we had in both Gold and Silver to their 2011 tops) PA will correct down to the level of the low of subwave 2 of that initial extended wave to the top. Now, the trick is only to correctly identify the 2nd subwave of the extension - and you have your low for the correction pre-determined. The 2nd subwave low in Silver can be placed with some confidence at 18.33 (in July 2010) and since Silver hit this same price earlier this year and bounced, we can assume with some confidence that Silver will not make an additional low and is already in the initial stages of its bull market.

In the Gold chart, however, the 2nd subwave of the extension is ambiguous. Looking back to 2010, it is not clear if the 2nd subwave low is located at January 2010 or perhaps July 2010 (or elsewhere, like 840). When I questioned if the Gold low is at 1180 or 1100 i was refering to the 2010 subwave 2 low - not this year's low! Now that I've clarified you can see what I was getting at in my post: Gold may already have struck the bottom of this correction and we are in the early stages of the bull market. No additional lows will print in this scenario. Alternatively if the subwave 2 low is nearer 1100 (or 840) then Gold will make another wave down (after a possible triangle has played out) and it should make this low without Silver.

Today I want to have a look at the potential triangle we have brewing and determine the options and constraints of this scenario.

http://ubuntuone.com/458ApjbGTO519nksQPkdiD
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,245
  • Nov 16, 2013 9:15pm Nov 16, 2013 9:15pm
OK --- HERE is the WEEKLY I am starting with and going to alter as much as I can before

We can see that all the minor DTLs present from the support failure at 1550 after the high and the range after the high from 1750 to 1550 are represented.
I suppose I could draw one more, yet It could be easily achieved and would be in fact stronger to use horizontal major S/R lines in this case.

ALSO, There is a larger much more interesting and trade-able pattern for both aggressive and safe traders that is already represented on this chart,
which is one of gold's favorites, the Symmetrical Triangle.

There are also MAJOR and OLD rising UTLs on the chart that go back a years, which I will try to chart before ending analysis tomorrow.

Going to start deleting some lines. Yet, notice again, of the MINOR DTLs WE are slightly stalled on the THIRD (I don't respect the fourth much anyway)
with a nice weekly bullish hammer candle close. Suggests, it's going to Crack and give us a potential high
At
the same old resistance levels of 1350 and appx 1370 -5 appx.

If the propulsion is strong enough, which I doubt with the end of year and quarter approaching, but, anything goes here, we could crack 1400.

Deletions will occur, will do some fibos, as well as possible bollinger band quick look and lastly some major S/R.

Basically price is winding down between the highest UTL not tested since the 1180 wick and repetitive cap around 1460 where the 200 SMA is residing.
200 SMA on daily and weekly always usually offers a median long term retracement point.

I also want to explore a line that CUTS OUT THE OLD RANGE of 1750 to 1550 making that area firm resistance at 1550 yet accommodates the old established TOP UTL as the triangle bottom, ONLY to make again, accommodate the tighter 1260 to 1350/60 range as of late.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 3.png Size: 236 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,246
  • Edited 9:47pm Nov 16, 2013 9:28pm | Edited 9:47pm
Reading now, looks like we were posting at the same time!

I have to say, I am not an EW trader, yet I do appreciate the analysis and am not opposed to learning it. PLEASE POST IT ANY TIME!!!
This actually, before your arrival to the thread is mainly due to an IN DEPTH and brief description of reasoning by FF member "infinitus"

My problems, before I finish reading are as such:
We as retail traders or independents like to try and keep any edge as well as basically I think as you had eluded, "do the opposite of what the banks, SAY, yet do what they do"

So - also someone mentioned banks, and "funds" trickling in positions and this is precisely what they do to NOT cause attention to themselves as to what their true motives and convictions are. I am not an institutional trader, but I know, that when one bank is selling, or buying any sort of derivative and gold has plenty,
it is as simple as a phone call, which IMO is faster than a trade at times.

- to make my point, when I look at multiple EW analysis charts from different traders they VARY greatly at times.
so I see it as being a more subjective mind/way of trading, with infinite possible outcomes. There is no respected MAJOR resistance or support that matches up on
many a three trader's charts. As well the counts don't always match. So it seems frustrating, complicated and time consuming to achieve for the most part the same results. Tying it all together, the banks/funds, know 1180 wick and 1200 respected candle round number support.

So ONE, can expect buying in said area - as well as an attempt for the bears to break the support.

I admire your commitment to your system. I in turn am learning about EW.


Quoting venzen
{quote} hi XTrade, I get what you are saying about the reaction low vs the nominal low for this year. Perhaps I didn't explain clearly what I was seeing from the charts: There is an empirical rule that has been established in EW that, following an extended wave to the upside (such as we had in both Gold and Silver to their 2011 tops) PA will correct down to the level of the low of subwave 2 of that initial extended wave to the top. Now, the trick is only to correctly identify the 2nd subwave of the extension - and you have your low for the correction...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,247
  • Nov 16, 2013 9:46pm Nov 16, 2013 9:46pm
SO, before I can make any more charts I want to point out that people:
notice with the low DTL on my last chart and the HIGH UTL we have a symmetrical triangle which I am now abbreviating
as done before in this thread a SYM-T.

Notice also, the 200 SMA, which is usually a guaranteed pullback point (how's that for banker talk "usually guaranteed" shit it's an oxymoron!!! )
Pullback point from highs of lows, or median price expectance area ---- IS CLOSING IN ON thE MIDDLE of said SYM-T.

While the price remains LOWish, the 200 drops, yet, makes it more achievable, more achievable = more breakable.

So there is really no doubt in my mind as the 50, 100, and 200 week SMAs converge the price will hit this area.

WHICH IN TIME, my absolute best estimation thus far is 1426.30 by an almost unreal push up soon OR RATHER by around late Jan, or early FEB 2014.

If you want to trade longer term and not have to worry about daily swings, you take offers at prices like 1265 and 1270 and silver's new one month low.
Then wait, let the trade ride. You're not losing if it moves over say at least ten, but a preferred 50 USD move before even considering taking a stop up above BE by 20 bucks... But that's how I trade. I assess the risk reward and leave the stop as a stop so that if I want to sleep and LONDON wants to swing, I don't lose a trade that NY may push up 25 bucks because I was being cheap and moving my stop to BE on every trade.

Moving stop to be or trailing is useful when well executed. Such as when gold is surging 50 buck swings in a day and you get in low and don't want to necessarily pick a TP but ride. BE - almost will always get hit and then move in your direction IF YOUR ENTRY IS WITHIN RANGE,
or as I have been discussing the "congestion" area.

Eventually after congestion what does the body do?
Quoting XTrade
OK --- Basically price is winding down between the highest UTL not tested since the 1180 wick and repetitive cap around 1460 where the 200 SMA is residing. 200 SMA on daily and weekly always usually offers a median long term retracement point. I also want to explore a line that CUTS OUT THE OLD RANGE of 1750 to 1550 making that area firm resistance at 1550 yet accommodates the old established TOP UTL as the triangle bottom, ONLY to make again, accommodate the tighter 1260 to 1350/60 range as of late. {image}
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,248
  • Nov 16, 2013 10:02pm Nov 16, 2013 10:02pm
venzen,

I have finished reading your post and now have a better understanding of what you were looking at.
I believe at this time I know what specific EW "subwaves" (can tell by looking at your counts, large wave/swings, then minor p/a bounces with the minor p/a and s/r bounces being the subwaves.

Just for fun though I will create another oxymoron! Just love English and say I have an "almost complete" understanding of subwaves.

In any case, I think you might have cashed out for the night and I am exhausted and smiling at the oxymorons!

Great analysis. Tomorrow afternoon we can resume SYM-T analysis and add the "tighter range" line I mentioned.

Here is a link for anyone to the definition of an OXYMORON.

To Quote one of George Carlin's best - "LIMITED LIFETIME WARRANTY" ROFL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxymoron

Quoting venzen
{quote} hi XTrade, I get what you are saying about the reaction low vs the nominal low for this year. Perhaps I didn't explain clearly what I was seeing from the charts: There is an empirical rule that has been established in EW that, following an extended wave to the upside (such as we had in both Gold and Silver to their 2011 tops) PA will correct down to the level of the low of subwave 2 of that initial extended wave to the top. Now, the trick is only to correctly identify the 2nd subwave of the extension - and you have your low for the correction...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,249
  • Nov 16, 2013 10:04pm Nov 16, 2013 10:04pm
$%^#% I am almost on the floor now with these and have to post some more OXYMORONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

  1. Dark light -- haha- WTF!!! I can't take it!
  2. Living dead
  3. Guest host (also: Permanent guest host) 2nd one better!!
  4. Little while ----------- I mean wtf is a LITTLE WHILE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hahahahah!!!
  5. Mad wisdom
  6. Mournful optimist
  7. Violent relaxation

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,250
  • Edited 10:28pm Nov 16, 2013 10:09pm | Edited 10:28pm
ALRIGHT I WAS JUST FLOORED I CAN'T TAKE IT!!!

I LOVE THESE - GEORGE CARLIN'S BEST ---- Here's 50!!!

(HEY it's in the rules to JOKE when the market is dead!)

Read a page back or tomorrow for in depth analysis while I am laughing at these!!!


50. Act naturally
49. Found missing
48. Resident alien
47. Advanced BASIC
46. Genuine imitation
45. Airline Food
44. Good grief
43. Same difference
42. Almost exactly
41. Government organization
40. Sanitary landfill
39. Alone together
38. Legally drunk
37. Silent scream
36. British fashion
35. Living dead
34. Small crowd
33. Business ethics
32. Soft rock
31. Butt Head
30. Military Intelligence
29. Software documentation
28. New York culture
27. New classic
26. Sweet sorrow
25. Childproof
24. "Now, then ..."
23. Synthetic natural gas ------- R O F L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
22. Christian Scientists
21. Passive aggression
20. Taped live
19. Clearly misunderstood
18. Peace force
17. Extinct Life
16. Temporary tax increase
15. Computer jock
14. Plastic glasses
13. Terribly pleased
12. Computer security
11. Political science
10. Tight slacks
9. Definite maybe
8. Pretty ugly
7. Twelve-ounce pound cake
6. Diet ice cream
5. Rap music
4. Working vacation
3. Exact estimate
2. Religious tolerance
1. Microsoft Works
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,251
  • Nov 16, 2013 10:29pm Nov 16, 2013 10:29pm
I CANNOT TAKE IT!!!
HERE LAUGH A BIT

http://www.oxymoronlist.com/
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,252
  • Nov 16, 2013 10:44pm Nov 16, 2013 10:44pm
Here are a few personal favorites.
BLACK GOLD
(for crude oil) #*&%^#(*& ROFL. Just think about it if you speak English.
another one on that topic
American English!
BORN DEAD!

Brief Speech!
CALCULATED ERROR!!!!!!!
CANNED FRESH
CERTAIN RISK!
CHEAP GAS!


%*#^%

I am floored.......................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,253
  • Nov 16, 2013 10:46pm Nov 16, 2013 10:46pm
I really hope someone is enjoying these as much as I am... Lady is passed out already.

I can't take it I have to read more....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,254
  • Nov 16, 2013 10:54pm Nov 16, 2013 10:54pm
MORE! -
CLEAN COAL!
COLD FEVER!
---------------> Don't think this one was mentioned but I use it often ALMOST THERE!

rofl: ALMOST PREGNANT! or SORT OF PREGNANT!!!!!!!! ^&*()
forgot AUTHENTIC REPLICA

These are great too but gonna save some!!

DOLLAR VALUE!

DOING NOTHING!
yikes!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,255
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:12pm Nov 16, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting XTrade
I really hope someone is enjoying these as much as I am... Lady is passed out already. I can't take it I have to read more....



enjoying these. It's just gone noon in Thailand, so on the 3rd cup of coffee and laughing with you: Microsoft Works! That's a favourite in the Linux community - i tell ya!

Was mapping out triangle scenarios while you were posting oxymorons, so i'll get to posting the possible triangles and later (this evening for me) we can correlate TA. When you're ready... no need to circumcise our watches!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,256
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:13pm Nov 16, 2013 11:13pm
Please feel free to interrupt my rant on the OXYMs with analysis anytime, yet, I figure laughter is better for the heart and soul as trading
will suck it out if you let it, so we do need some relief.
as I laugh for the first time in a month,

OMG..... MORE O X Y M O R O N S I far prefer the WIKI definition to the online dictionaries.

MAN CHILD!
minor CRISIS!
Running In Place!
RANDOM PATTERN!!!!!
ECONOMIC FORECAST! Damn you have to say these are funny
ELEVATED SUBWAY - Love this one cause it makes absolutely NO SENSE at all and being a NYorker, I know...
EVAPORATED MILK! <----------
EXTRA TIME
even ODDS
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,257
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:16pm Nov 16, 2013 11:16pm
talking about miltary intellgence, here's a philosophical braintwister that typifies the Bush era:

Donald Rumsfeld:

There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_known_knowns


deep thoughts for a Matrix Agent! He left out one though:

But the most mystical of them is the unknown knowns - things we know yet we don't know we know already!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,258
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:17pm Nov 16, 2013 11:17pm
Glad to see you laughing buddy!

Literally on the floor from some of these.

In any case, tomorrow for me at least is triangle analysis.

I am going to work it "two of one ways" another oxy and banker talk. LOL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Maybe you mean synchronizing??? Or just joking with my and my OXY's!?

Quoting venzen
{quote} enjoying these. It's just gone noon in Thailand, so on the 3rd cup of coffee and laughing with you: Microsoft Works! That's a favourite in the Linux community - i tell ya! Was mapping out triangle scenarios while you were posting oxymorons, so i'll get to posting the possible triangles and later (this evening for me) we can correlate TA. When you're ready... no need to circumcise our watches!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,259
  • Edited 11:29pm Nov 16, 2013 11:18pm | Edited 11:29pm
synchronizing and circumcising are two different things.
No watch heads getting......... here anyway the market goes.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #28,260
  • Nov 16, 2013 11:25pm Nov 16, 2013 11:25pm
In any case a SYM-T is definite at this point (again I am abbreviating SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE with SYM-T for the noobs or whoever) no matter.
So I decrease my typing. Going to also add a list of simple retail abbrvs as well as pair names in the FIRST POST so we can ALLL
say refer to post ONE for details.



I don't want to give my year end exact forecast just yet, but will do so before the American holiday of Thanksgiving.
Which, mind you manned desks will only get a day off.

so I will remind all before the day.
then we have Kwwanza (sorry if SPd) Hanukah, Christmas, ---------> and NEW YEAR'S EVE and DAY!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
157 traders viewing now