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  • #28,041
  • Nov 14, 2013 1:59am Nov 14, 2013 1:59am
Quoting morfasie
{quote} Sorry another question, how do we know which high to use? The one you used that was on the 7th of Noveber, or the other one that was on the 30th of Oct
Sorry. Wife carted me off to the shopping center. Just got back to find wave A has put in another minor wave & we are finally in wave wave B. Being a very basic EW person I forgot each wave in an ABC has a minor abc in it & each minor abc has a mini minor abc. Jeez that's confused the hell out of me Lol.
Ew experts have other labels such as xyz not to mention OfK.
Once I get a confirmation Of wave A. I am able to determine the final target Of wave C. Up 'till then it is, let's say, educated speculation..........
Wave B is always a mystery. Perhaps "Venzen" can determine that better that I. I will read his posts now. I do expect it to go back to at least the daily pivot at 1277. Yes. (23% Fib')

As for the 2nd question. That goes back to moves long past & does not apply to the current pullback. On Nov' 7 I warned of a "Possible" spike pullback to 1325 & that's exactly what it did. Oct' 30th post gave possibilities to be aware of. Don't confuse wave possibilities with wave projections.
Money Makes Money
  • #28,042
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:06am Nov 14, 2013 2:06am
Do you clever guys thing we have started the down wave B from your earlier analysis on Gold?
  • #28,043
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:14am Nov 14, 2013 2:14am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} wouldn't say so much down as opposed to bobbing between the aforementioned 100 USD range we are in. Widening will only help the day trader's and scalpers. Which I am very much considering solely scalping until 2014.
you could be right about this, but my weekly chart says the range will be situated more likely mostly to the downside. Weekly charts are just quite annoing to really base much trading on though from a practical point of view. I prefer 4H trades myself, since I got a sick and tired of spending my time glued in front of a pc screen, but to each his own. looking back I wouldn't consider it time wasted. My last trade happend to be on the daily and most of the time I even find that timeframe too high to catch nice ongoing moves. It turned out profitable, but a bit frustrating to see I only caught so little of a big range. Hindsight is 20/20 though an a profitable trade is better than no trade at all (which would have been the case if I would have only watched my 4H charts).
  • #28,044
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:26am Nov 14, 2013 2:26am
STOCK MARKET CRASH: Here Are The Warning Signs That The Bubble Will Burst
http://www.businessinsider.com/stock...-signs-2013-11

Could be good for gold?


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Beware The Looming "Wave Of Disaster" From Home Equity Payment Resets
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/13/2013 - 23:13
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...1/upside_0.jpgOf all the screwed up, misallocated parts of the U.S. economy, the housing market continues to be one of the biggest potential train wrecks. While the extent of the insanity in residential real estate should be clear following the peak insanity yesterday, there are other potential problems just on the horizon. One of these was written about over the weekend in the LA Times. In a nutshell, the next several years will start to see principal payments added to interest only payments on a large amount of second mortgages taken out during the boom years. The estimate is that $30 billion in home equity lines will reset next year, $53 billion in 2015, and then ultimately soaring to $111 billion in 2018 - a looming “wave of disaster” because large numbers of borrowers will be unable to handle the higher payments. This will force banks to either foreclose, refinance the borrower or modify their loans.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,045
  • Edited 3:08am Nov 14, 2013 2:31am | Edited 3:08am
Quoting morfasie
Do you clever guys thing we have started the down wave B from your earlier analysis on Gold?

Since none of the clever guys are answering you, i guess my opinion will just have to do:

I have us in wave 4 now and that means a drawn out retracement. Could go deep to 1277 or keep shallow above 1280. Following that we should have one more leg up toward 1300. However, don't take my word for it... I'm wondering if the move up may not complete sooner or is perhaps over already. I'll be on M5, M15 and H1, watching RSI for when reverse divergence terminates and MACD for a final divergence on whatever HH may follow.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,046
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:39am Nov 14, 2013 2:39am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Since none of the clever guys are answering you, i guess my opinion will just have to do: I have us in wave 4 now and that means a drawn out retracement. Could go deep to 1277 or keep shallow above 1280. Following that we should have on more leg up toward 1300. However, don't take my word for it... I'm wondering if the move up may not complete sooner or is perhaps over already. I'll be on M5, M15 and H1, watching RSI for when reverse divergence terminates and MACD for a final divergence on whatever HH may follow.

Thanks a lot Venzen, for RSI do you use standard 14 and for MACD the standard 12,26,9? You guys amaze me, wish I could learn/know so much about the waves etc...
  • #28,047
  • Edited 3:13am Nov 14, 2013 2:45am | Edited 3:13am
Rhodie,

I am often amused by the doomsayers. I enjoy ZeroHedge and they are certainly defiant in their reporting and opinions. Good reading and vital info. But their tendency to sensationalize the "Coming Mother of All Crashes" is not believable. Why? From an Elliott Wave perspective the onset of a stock market crash is imminent, but it cannot be that big because the Cycle wave degree low has a floor that is not the same distance away as in 1929 or even 2000. For a really big crash we have to wait till the late 2020's when the degree floor has a good drop down that can properly make people soil themselves. But this crash now is just a Primary degree crash. I guess the QE and "New Normal" is not going away for another decade!

Having been a one-time Gold bug and foaming-at-the-moath contrarian-permabear in previous years, I can tell you this from experience: 1) the stock market is NOT going to crash predictably or with anyone's pre-knowledge; 2) Gold will NOT go to $2,250 the short route and when it gets there it is coming down lower (due to degree floor again) than the imminent low now in 2013. As for the Gold $5000 prophets I hear out there - technically and fundamentally impossible. 3) If anything is going to dizzy heights and crashing to absurd lows - repeatedly - I nominate Bitcoin!

edit: BTW, nothing personal, just chewing the cud. Believe me, I'm all for a planet-wide purge of systemic clog and man's inhumanity to man, but the pending crash promises no more than a 10% academic correction... sigh..
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,048
  • Edited 3:35am Nov 14, 2013 2:54am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting morfasie
{quote} Thanks a lot Venzen, for RSI do you use standard 14 and for MACD the standard 12,26,9? You guys amaze me, wish I could learn/know so much about the waves etc...

The defaults are good but you may want to tweak.

I change MACD to 9,12,5 for it to give a faster reading on wave amplitude - but it requires more interpretation... if you need this then change it, else 12,26,9 is good.

RSI is the most bestest indicator ever invented, but the originator Welles-Wilder was applying it to day charts in the stock market where a 14 period was suitable. But forex and commodities swing hard so I shorten the period to 9 (or even 5) and push the overbought/oversold bands wider to 80/20. With this faster setting you will also start seeing RSI hit 0 and 100 which helps with signal interpretation. Funny thing about 14 period is - there are few (if any) examples in price history of 14 successive up or down days. People use 14 because, well, everyone else does - it works but is not optimal.. Study RSI - it's logic and it's insides: it says 99% more than just "overbought" and "oversold"!

Try Stochasticised RSI - I use that more frequently because it exaggerates the RSI amplitude yet preserves divergence and reverse ("hidden") divergence signals. That I set to 14, to counteract the wild oscillating effect of wrapping it in a Stochastic formula.

As for learning - it's up to you - if you are thirsty enough for knowledge it is at your finger tips - devour anything and everything: read, read, read and ask questions - your mind will do the rest while you are sleeping.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,049
  • Nov 14, 2013 2:58am Nov 14, 2013 2:58am
Quoting kirkland
{quote} Hope you won't mind if I ask what is your outlook for next few hours?
just seeing this now ... I have to sleep too . The most easy answer is I hardly trade below the 4H anymore; if so I wouldn't really post it in my blog since you need too much flexibility for that kinda game. One thing is certain though: I never trade the Asian session intraday: almost 100% guaranteed to be uneventfull and painfully boring. At this moment I am looking for some kinda long signal on the 4H Allready had one at 1381.40; but I still was short in my trade on the daily tf's and I don't really like to mix timeframes up, probably a mistake looking backwards but there is only so much my mind can hanle properly lol So hoping I get some kinda second chance to let me in on this train.
  • #28,050
  • Nov 14, 2013 3:23am Nov 14, 2013 3:23am
While extremely late on this: let's still try to correct my lateness and try to catch some of this upmove anyhow ... no sure I am actually going to get a chance to get in, but sure worth the try: http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...t-of-this.html
  • #28,051
  • Nov 14, 2013 3:26am Nov 14, 2013 3:26am
Quoting morfasie
{quote} Thanks a lot Venzen, for RSI do you use standard 14 and for MACD the standard 12,26,9? You guys amaze me, wish I could learn/know so much about the waves etc...

about the waves... it's a highly subjective TA method (much like fundamental analysis), and it is not exact. People with good pattern recognition skills can excel at it but most wave counters are mediocre and don't experience the blinding light of insight into the Fib ratios that govern all manifestation needed to "count waves". I myself am only correct with EW as a predictive tool around 40% of the time - but luckily that 40% is sufficient for overall profitability - my entry method being the saving grace!

If you're interested, grab a copy of Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter and commit it to memory. Even better, read the works of Ralph N Elliott - who discovered the principle of Fibs in PA back in the 30's.

EW seems daunting at first because of the labeling but it has only a handful of rules and a few pages of guidelines, so easy to learn but takes long to come to grips with. As long as you get on the ladder, you will not regret it, guaranteed.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,052
  • Nov 14, 2013 3:29am Nov 14, 2013 3:29am
Quoting cvds16
While extremely late on this: let's still try to correct my lateness and try to catch some of this upmove anyhow ... no sure I am actually going to get a chance to get in, but sure worth the try: http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...t-of-this.html

wait for a drop like the one that preceded the strong move up yesterday. Lookout for the "hook down" - that's the best entry point - but don't try to call it's end... wait for PA to move decisively away from the low
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,053
  • Nov 14, 2013 3:31am Nov 14, 2013 3:31am
I am actually short at this moment intraday, but like I said, I am not posting these kinda trades in my blog ... it would confuse too many people most likely. I try to stick to more kinda swingtrades there ...
  • #28,054
  • Edited 4:23am Nov 14, 2013 4:01am | Edited 4:23am
For those interested, I'm looking to short somewhere near 1287 in the next couple hours or so. What I'm waiting for is a gentle move up to around 1286-88 then expect a sharp fall off to test or break the LoD sub 1281. If this fails I then expect a continued bull run. I may be wrong on the time frame, but the 13h30 gmt announcements will probably have an impact on my decisions. When the London Turn (12h30 - 13h15) arrives, we shall know for sure what to position for...

It looks like a glass ceiling @1285.27 for now. Wonder why?

This is a screen shot of my 60" multi-monitor setup (without the data from my proprietry system). I find that a 6 screen setup is really useful for pinpointing the turns in the markets and a huge time saver also. Does anyone else use multi-screen arrays?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 406 KB
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,055
  • Nov 14, 2013 4:03am Nov 14, 2013 4:03am
Will gold gone touch 1290 mark in another 2 hours???
  • #28,056
  • Nov 14, 2013 4:07am Nov 14, 2013 4:07am
Quoting jitu.ahuja
Will gold gone touch 1290 mark in another 2 hours???
If I knew the future, I would be super rich and the world bankrupt. You know as much as we do.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,057
  • Nov 14, 2013 4:10am Nov 14, 2013 4:10am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} If I knew the future, I would be super rich and the world bankrupt. You know as much as we do.
I know Rhodie. However, i was just asking as it is stuck around 1284
  • #28,058
  • Edited 4:53am Nov 14, 2013 4:27am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting jitu.ahuja
{quote} I know Rhodie. However, i was just asking as it is stuck around 1284
It looks like something is due to happen. Don't know what exactly, but it will. This is acumulation and usually happens before a decisive move like on Tuesday. This is looks like the highs getting lower and the lows breaking lower. Very bearish. Now is LBMA fix.

10h52: Taking a break till 12h30. Nothing spectacular expected, so don't try anything silly now, like getting into the market.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #28,059
  • Nov 14, 2013 4:58am Nov 14, 2013 4:58am
Quoting The Rhodie
.... Does anyone else use multi-screen arrays?
I used to have a 4-screen setup in the city and it was great. Having every information source in a dedicated screen location and being able to scan going's on was so convenient. My current location and resource constraints don't allow such a setup, but I definitely miss it and will build one as soon as circumstances permit.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #28,060
  • Nov 14, 2013 5:07am Nov 14, 2013 5:07am
bearish ? gold ? come on fellas look at the charts again
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