You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #28,022
- Nov 13, 2013 7:58pm Nov 13, 2013 7:58pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2013 | 2,500 Posts
{quote} Good analysis from where I sit. I have two targets for this pullback. Bear in mind it is only a pullback. My ultimate target is around 1100. This pullback will probably consist of an ABC with A going to about 1284 & C going to about 1310. The 15m chart shows wave A & the 4H chart shows wave C. These targets also coincide with the 23% & 50% Fibs.........Of course it may top out at the 1st target...... Probably best to TP at the 1st target & reenter on confirmation of a move to the 2nd target. {image} {image}
Well now that worked out pretty much to plan so far. We got an abc To make wave A. Now we are in wave B which looks to be going to land on the daily Pivot. We should then get another abc to make wave C to the target which now appears to be 1306..............
Wave A hit the 38% Fib' & wave C at 1306 will be at the 68% Fib'........DeMark lines, Fibs' & EW(basic) all working in unison.........
So far So good.
Money Makes Money
- #28,023
- Nov 13, 2013 8:34pm Nov 13, 2013 8:34pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
{quote} Well now that worked out pretty much to plan so far. We got an abc To make wave A. Now we are in wave B which looks to be going to land on the daily Pivot. We should then get another abc to make wave C to the target which now appears to be 1306..............
this is playing out nicely now.
EW - basic or not - helps us map where we are and what options remain. I'll post my updated count in a few hours.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #28,024
- Nov 13, 2013 9:12pm Nov 13, 2013 9:12pm
{quote} Well now that worked out pretty much to plan so far. We got an abc To make wave A. Now we are in wave B which looks to be going to land on the daily Pivot. We should then get another abc to make wave C to the target which now appears to be 1306..............
Hi thanks for the valuable info, how far do you think the pullback will be for wave b, back to 23% fib level?
- #28,025
- Nov 13, 2013 9:16pm Nov 13, 2013 9:16pm
{quote} Well now that worked out pretty much to plan so far. We got an abc To make wave A. Now we are in wave B which looks to be going to land on the daily Pivot. We should then get another abc to make wave C to the target which now appears to be 1306..............
Sorry another question, how do we know which high to use? The one you used that was on the 7th of Noveber, or the other one that was on the 30th of Oct
- #28,026
- Edited Nov 14, 2013 12:00am Nov 13, 2013 11:08pm | Edited Nov 14, 2013 12:00am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
PA has moved on a bit since I compiled these so the wave 4 / wave 5 border may have been crossed already...
Recap: Gold PA is going up in a correction to the larger trend which is down. Current PA is the last leg of an ABC to the upside before a 3rd wave down takes hold.
Firstly, an update to the count I posted yesterday: More time and more subwaves give a clearer picture. I'm failing to see large ABC subdivisions in the PA going up, so I am assuming this is a vanilla impulse (12345) going up. The wave 1 / 2 relationship is confirmed by a retrace of exactly 62% of wave 1 by wave 2. We now also have a clear wave 3 (steep angle) confirmed by a MACD extreme. PA could go on to create an even larger wave with a bigger MACD value, in which case my wave 3 label would move. The Fib projected target seems to be in the 1306 vicinity.
Here is an H1 chart showing the context of current PA. Notice the way Gold makes B waves lower than the start of wave A. This is not that rare a phenomenon in the market but Gold just does it very consistently and in a particular form. It is possible to call the B wave low the "print low" but to project Fibs one has to use the start of wave A - else you get non-sensical results. This has been mentioned by XTrade in relation to drawing S/R levels on candle body lows (as opposed to wick lows) and it makes sense in relation to the Gold B wave over-throw.
Notice that there is a red alternate count on the chart. Any count is only as good as the next wave that confirms it and a current count that survives in the same form as it was initially conceived is a rare phenomenon. By labeling an alternative I am anticipating what would be the implication if PA just kept going past 1310. The count would have to be redone from scratch. I have also included wave degree labels for anyone interested in this aspect of EW.
Next - the bigger picture on H8. Notice again that B-wave hook (wave 3 -> 4). The bottom is not that far away and we are in the advanced stages of decline. PA is (according to my count and wave degree allocation) in the last minor wave [5]. The charts above show our location in subwave 3 of this wave [5]. The question is just how far will the drop go... wave 3's are fairly destructive and additionally commodities tend to extend the 5th wave, so we could be going very low very quickly. I would prefer that PA surrupticiously print a fairly unimpressive price like say $1,103.11 and then mundanely head up in what the majority will call a correction after a new yearly low. The media should be in full gloom mode and the web analysts shaking their heads like a plumber looking under the kitchen sink... and before everyone knows it PA will be back above 1200 then 1300 and the Cycle degree bull market would have started without the majority of sheeple! When they jump in, wave 3 will do it's epic work and we will be sure to draw benefit from that.
But first wait for the low... there are destructive types who are drooling to see sub-1000 PA - who knows for what joy (broker bonus?) or on what technical basis - but never-the-less, we should avoid calling a bottom (pre-maturely) and focus on looking for confirmation of impulsive advance at that time.
Recap: Gold PA is going up in a correction to the larger trend which is down. Current PA is the last leg of an ABC to the upside before a 3rd wave down takes hold.
Firstly, an update to the count I posted yesterday: More time and more subwaves give a clearer picture. I'm failing to see large ABC subdivisions in the PA going up, so I am assuming this is a vanilla impulse (12345) going up. The wave 1 / 2 relationship is confirmed by a retrace of exactly 62% of wave 1 by wave 2. We now also have a clear wave 3 (steep angle) confirmed by a MACD extreme. PA could go on to create an even larger wave with a bigger MACD value, in which case my wave 3 label would move. The Fib projected target seems to be in the 1306 vicinity.
Here is an H1 chart showing the context of current PA. Notice the way Gold makes B waves lower than the start of wave A. This is not that rare a phenomenon in the market but Gold just does it very consistently and in a particular form. It is possible to call the B wave low the "print low" but to project Fibs one has to use the start of wave A - else you get non-sensical results. This has been mentioned by XTrade in relation to drawing S/R levels on candle body lows (as opposed to wick lows) and it makes sense in relation to the Gold B wave over-throw.
Notice that there is a red alternate count on the chart. Any count is only as good as the next wave that confirms it and a current count that survives in the same form as it was initially conceived is a rare phenomenon. By labeling an alternative I am anticipating what would be the implication if PA just kept going past 1310. The count would have to be redone from scratch. I have also included wave degree labels for anyone interested in this aspect of EW.
Next - the bigger picture on H8. Notice again that B-wave hook (wave 3 -> 4). The bottom is not that far away and we are in the advanced stages of decline. PA is (according to my count and wave degree allocation) in the last minor wave [5]. The charts above show our location in subwave 3 of this wave [5]. The question is just how far will the drop go... wave 3's are fairly destructive and additionally commodities tend to extend the 5th wave, so we could be going very low very quickly. I would prefer that PA surrupticiously print a fairly unimpressive price like say $1,103.11 and then mundanely head up in what the majority will call a correction after a new yearly low. The media should be in full gloom mode and the web analysts shaking their heads like a plumber looking under the kitchen sink... and before everyone knows it PA will be back above 1200 then 1300 and the Cycle degree bull market would have started without the majority of sheeple! When they jump in, wave 3 will do it's epic work and we will be sure to draw benefit from that.
But first wait for the low... there are destructive types who are drooling to see sub-1000 PA - who knows for what joy (broker bonus?) or on what technical basis - but never-the-less, we should avoid calling a bottom (pre-maturely) and focus on looking for confirmation of impulsive advance at that time.
cryptocurrency everytime
- #28,027
- Nov 13, 2013 11:25pm Nov 13, 2013 11:25pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,029
- Nov 13, 2013 11:29pm Nov 13, 2013 11:29pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,030
- Nov 13, 2013 11:31pm Nov 13, 2013 11:31pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,032
- Nov 14, 2013 12:03am Nov 14, 2013 12:03am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,033
- Nov 14, 2013 12:05am Nov 14, 2013 12:05am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,034
- Nov 14, 2013 12:05am Nov 14, 2013 12:05am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,035
- Nov 14, 2013 12:09am Nov 14, 2013 12:09am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #28,036
- Nov 14, 2013 12:13am Nov 14, 2013 12:13am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,037
- Nov 14, 2013 12:17am Nov 14, 2013 12:17am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,038
- Nov 14, 2013 12:40am Nov 14, 2013 12:40am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,039
- Nov 14, 2013 12:46am Nov 14, 2013 12:46am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
venzen,
Great advice,
thanks for sharing.
Night!
Great advice,
thanks for sharing.
Night!
{quote} hi fellow archer! i see your chart and what you're questioning. I would advise, because of the small wave degree of this advance, that you also look at M15 where you will see the divergence more clearly. H1 will continue diverging as we approach 1300 (or higher) and will signal the end of the uptrend. M15 shows strong divergence right now, after a small downward correction (in wave 4) PA should engage in an ending diagonal to the upside which will be clear on M5 and help you enter short at the optimal moment if you draw channel TLs on that...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #28,040
- Edited 2:08am Nov 14, 2013 1:30am | Edited 2:08am
- | Joined Oct 2013 | Status: You missed it. So what! Try again. | 625 Posts
My daily Analysis
Remember that this is opinion. Trade what you see, not what you believe. If you can't see it, you can't trade it.
Tuesday saw a smackdown in gold at the long-term rise to 0.886 level from 28th October. It immediately moved up and has continued to rally to 1288.3 where it has now fallen over. That rise has produced a bearish AB=CD pattern which has held. Until this market hits 1293.2 it would remain bearish. The next change in direction from the current down-leg can be expected reasonably from as early as 1281.9 which is the interday swing level of a 0.236 fib level. Today's daily low is currently @1280.75 and we are witnessing another session AB=CD pattern form in the Euro session that is slightly bullish @07h30gmt 1282.3. With the announcements today we could see more volatility today and there is great hope that we can trade sensibly today, unlike yesterday's shark-infested waters.
When the current leg tests the LoD then we would normally go long for the leg up. Until London Open, I am holding off on any positions. The market has not shown it's hand yet, being rangebound in a $7.63 candle so far. Yesterday was an $18.41 candle. Those of you wondering why my candles are different: the trading day begins with [Sydney+Asian] 01h00 open after NYC closes at 22h00 Gmt and there is a roll-over period seperating the trading days.
@1283 the market has settled into Market Consideration and looks like it may rally from here a little but it is terribly low volume, so I'm inclined to wait. Everything is looking bearish. 1400 and 800 are both looking like potential candidates long-term from here.
If the LoD around 1280 is broken, market is really bearish for the day.
0757 gmt: Just noticed that we have bounced off the 0.146 fib from 2011 high to June's low and have begun tracking lower. If this breaks down we could expect market to break lower than 1178.93 some time next year. It's possible that it happens over a month period, but not likely.
Remember that this is opinion. Trade what you see, not what you believe. If you can't see it, you can't trade it.
Tuesday saw a smackdown in gold at the long-term rise to 0.886 level from 28th October. It immediately moved up and has continued to rally to 1288.3 where it has now fallen over. That rise has produced a bearish AB=CD pattern which has held. Until this market hits 1293.2 it would remain bearish. The next change in direction from the current down-leg can be expected reasonably from as early as 1281.9 which is the interday swing level of a 0.236 fib level. Today's daily low is currently @1280.75 and we are witnessing another session AB=CD pattern form in the Euro session that is slightly bullish @07h30gmt 1282.3. With the announcements today we could see more volatility today and there is great hope that we can trade sensibly today, unlike yesterday's shark-infested waters.
When the current leg tests the LoD then we would normally go long for the leg up. Until London Open, I am holding off on any positions. The market has not shown it's hand yet, being rangebound in a $7.63 candle so far. Yesterday was an $18.41 candle. Those of you wondering why my candles are different: the trading day begins with [Sydney+Asian] 01h00 open after NYC closes at 22h00 Gmt and there is a roll-over period seperating the trading days.
@1283 the market has settled into Market Consideration and looks like it may rally from here a little but it is terribly low volume, so I'm inclined to wait. Everything is looking bearish. 1400 and 800 are both looking like potential candidates long-term from here.
If the LoD around 1280 is broken, market is really bearish for the day.
0757 gmt: Just noticed that we have bounced off the 0.146 fib from 2011 high to June's low and have begun tracking lower. If this breaks down we could expect market to break lower than 1178.93 some time next year. It's possible that it happens over a month period, but not likely.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.