There's only one way out Goldilocks & One of 'dem Bears is gonna sprinkle you on his porridge..........{image}
Money Makes Money
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #27,482
- Edited 5:12pm Oct 31, 2013 4:57pm | Edited 5:12pm
Daily gold shows a potential to reverse here with Fibonacci and RSI trend line support (blue). Any move up would also pull up RSI maintaining inflection point 50, but gold hasn't broken RSI resistance in any mid-term time frame (except for a minor hourly breach yesterday) and it has yet to reach bull (blue) or fractal bull (light blue) support in price which I'd like to see hit first so I'm looking at continuing to the downside in the near term.
The "September move" (green Fibonacci and circles) extended down 27% as is often the case. Continuing downwards within the bear channel (red in both price and RSI), the "Sep-Oct move" (black Fibonacci and diamonds) 27% extension aligns with the the 61% extension of the "September move" at $1200 somewhere near the end of November if the bear channel is maintained. Keep an eye on "main" RSI support (purple) if price does continue downwards as this should be considered strong support and it will be very bearish if it is broken.
Alternately, should bear resistance be broken in price and RSI, a 27% move up has longer term targets of $1,473 or $1,483.
Note: NetDania shows a move down at the NY 5:15 p.m. EST trading break to the 12:30 p.m. EST low of $1,319 whereas my broker shows the 1:30/2:00 p.m. EST commodity/FOREX close price of $1,323 being maintained. In five minutes we'll see if last minute order was indeed put through and not picked up by my broker or if it's another NetDania data aberration.
Update: It was a NetDania data aberration, but I wonder if it's an actual data feed issue in which case I further wonder if any brokers are using this feed and thus if any orders were affected?
Addendum: The $1,319 low today is the 61.8% extension of yesterday's full range.
The "September move" (green Fibonacci and circles) extended down 27% as is often the case. Continuing downwards within the bear channel (red in both price and RSI), the "Sep-Oct move" (black Fibonacci and diamonds) 27% extension aligns with the the 61% extension of the "September move" at $1200 somewhere near the end of November if the bear channel is maintained. Keep an eye on "main" RSI support (purple) if price does continue downwards as this should be considered strong support and it will be very bearish if it is broken.
Alternately, should bear resistance be broken in price and RSI, a 27% move up has longer term targets of $1,473 or $1,483.
Note: NetDania shows a move down at the NY 5:15 p.m. EST trading break to the 12:30 p.m. EST low of $1,319 whereas my broker shows the 1:30/2:00 p.m. EST commodity/FOREX close price of $1,323 being maintained. In five minutes we'll see if last minute order was indeed put through and not picked up by my broker or if it's another NetDania data aberration.
Update: It was a NetDania data aberration, but I wonder if it's an actual data feed issue in which case I further wonder if any brokers are using this feed and thus if any orders were affected?
Addendum: The $1,319 low today is the 61.8% extension of yesterday's full range.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #27,484
- Oct 31, 2013 6:58pm Oct 31, 2013 6:58pm
{image} Just my 0.02c worth
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #27,486
- Oct 31, 2013 8:39pm Oct 31, 2013 8:39pm
{quote} The only Bollinger I know is a Champagne. After the day selling off so rapidly, I am amazed that I only lost $2 off my $5k balance yesterday. I guess that we shall see some movers and shakers talking up a storm today. W&C, there are a load of supports for the metal and it looks like there is something happening with the Euro again to make it look worth trading short???
As for the Euro, EUR/USD having failed to hold 1.365, the next target down is 1.3475 and I am relatively comfortable shorting all Euro crosses at this point though I am keeping an eye on the US Dollar Index as the move up past 80 was pure manipulation with no fundamental basis. The real test will be resistance at 80.60 where, without another concerted effort to move it up, it will return to support at 79 which in turn means a shift back to a bullish Euro. A break below 79 will see non-US pairs breaking new highs. Until then, all US crosses are essentially range-bound.
---
Gold has re-entered the descending RSI channel in the 2-hour chart and broken RSI resistance in the 1-hour chart but is still well below 50 with no supporting trend line so it is anything but bullish; however, very near term 5-minute scalping does show gold in a workable bull channel both price and RSI-wise. 27% extension targets are $1,317.50 and $1,327.50 giving us the typical $10 gold consolidation range.
As I wrote that, silver broke below the $21.91 closing price and gold broke both RSI and price channel support but is holding (for the moment) at the daily close of $1,323.
Note: The spike down at 5:15 p.m. EST is some kind of data glitch and should be ignored.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
The reason behind the Gold Price plunge ... 
Article: http://rt.com/op-edge/us-debt-gold-price-threats-481/
Cartoon posted by TimTamMad
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post7056255
Article: http://rt.com/op-edge/us-debt-gold-price-threats-481/
Cartoon posted by TimTamMad
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post7056255
- #27,489
- Oct 31, 2013 10:07pm Oct 31, 2013 10:07pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
I'd say that looks like a loser to me!
The reason behind the Gold Price plunge ...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #27,490
- Oct 31, 2013 10:24pm Oct 31, 2013 10:24pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #27,491
- Oct 31, 2013 11:28pm Oct 31, 2013 11:28pm
I really just posted that chart with ref. to the Andrews Pitchfork. In other words I would need to see a break out over $1450 to consider reversing my bearish opinion. Shorting the breaks above the top bollinger on the 4 hr chart with 300 point stops and waiting for the move down below $1200 is my theory at this stage, but opinions r like ass holes, everybodies got one
A major collapse of the over cooked Dow would change my opinion in a heart beat but!!
A major collapse of the over cooked Dow would change my opinion in a heart beat but!!
- #27,495
- Edited 3:53am Nov 1, 2013 1:58am | Edited 3:53am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: good | 4,295 Posts
cryptocurrency everytime
- #27,496
- Nov 1, 2013 2:05am Nov 1, 2013 2:05am
Current bull fractal range updated. I would expect the range to become invalidated once the upper 27% extension is reached. Time-wise it looks like it will happen near London open which, coincidentally, being the largest gold market in the world, is when you would expect something to happen.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #27,497
- Nov 1, 2013 3:19am Nov 1, 2013 3:19am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
$1280 was tested on the 2nd of last month and 1260 on the 16th, so semm like as reasonable supports as anything esle to me?, but I'm a pretty simple guy
I like to keep it simple as well! -
Those two lows also could be a potential double bottom in place. Although they are not exact, they are close enough on a daily or even
weekly to be easily identified.
Could be something to look back on in a few months when the price is 1550 and say damn! Why'd I close those longs!
Also one last thing to keep in mind. The prior low of lows was 1180 reaction low, and even on a break past 1280 to 1260 we still never came close to 1180.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #27,499
- Nov 1, 2013 4:20am Nov 1, 2013 4:20am
I located $1,310. It's consolidation support following the prior move up and the base of the current move up. It's also a 100% extension down from the base of this current consolidation zone now that the range has been broken and we can take it's full measure. $1,251 is obviously referencing a 100% retracement of the full move up from the September low. It looks like BoA has a rather simplistic approach of looking to prior highs and lows for choosing their targets which is often the best approach. I will try to remember to follow up at a later date and see if they got it right.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
