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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,421
  • Oct 31, 2013 1:37am Oct 31, 2013 1:37am
Yes, unemployment, just took a snooze! I believe the board (News) from today and yesterday is below.

Quoting morfasie
{quote} Well unemployment claims are coming up Thursday, which would prob not be favourable for USD, so could Gold then bounce back up? It has also dipped below the 50% Fibb level, which could indicate with right PA that it will be heading down to 38.2% level
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,422
  • Oct 31, 2013 1:42am Oct 31, 2013 1:42am
Likely # 2 on this list helped push the price down in late afternoon on Wednesday.

 

  1. "By JON HILSENRATH
  2. The Federal Reserve emerged from its October meeting effectively in a wait-and-see mode on the economy and policy, making few substantive changes to its statement.


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/im...1009202605.jpg
Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve building in Washington.


Here are a few key takeaways:

–LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMY: The housing sector has “slowed somewhat,” the Fed said. That’s a downgrade from September when officials said it had been strengthening. The labor market had shown “some further improvement,” the Fed said, an ever-so-slight downgrade from the “further improvement” the Fed noted in September. On net, very little change in how officials see the economy performing.

–FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IMPROVING: The Fed dropped its reference to financial conditions having tightened in recent months, as it noted in September. That’s a nod of approval to rising stock prices and the recent drop in long-term interest rates. The Fed also removed a reference to its concern about higher mortgage rates, which have dropped since the last meeting.

–STILL AN EYE ON TAPERING: The Fed retained language it used in September which suggested officials had an eye on pulling back from their bond buying program if the economy improved. It noted “underlying strength” in the broader economy and said it chose to “await more evidence” on the economy’s performance before adjusting the bond-buying program.


Taken together, the Fed isn’t taking a December adjustment to the bond-buying program off the table. But that comes with the strong caveat that it depends on whether the economy is living up to its expectations. As part of that assessment, Fed officials will be updating their economic forecasts in December and will need to make a judgment about whether their projection of accelerating economic growth in 2014 is likely to be met. "
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,423
  • Oct 31, 2013 2:01am Oct 31, 2013 2:01am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I imagine it would have been pretty hard to find a dealer willing to sell either silver or gold at so far below what their cost must have been a few months ago. If silver breaks above I'd certainly consider buying more on a pullback to resistance turned support.

I have a jewelry / coin shop that I use and another simple buyer that always give fair on "buyback" or "you selling" to them.

Usually it's a couple bucks under spot on Gold considering:
- How much and
- What/ who the mint is. ie: for silver American Eagles or Canadian Maple leaf one ozt silver coins minted buy said governments the jewelry/coin shop will often take
"close to spot" instead of appx 1 USD less per ounce troy.

I wonder sometimes how they make money, yet the process is really quite simple.

- If the price is dropping and they have already got you for under spot they have created a difference straight away.
- They likely can call the smelter throughout the day to place orders to sell, likely using the London Fixes so they are not subject to minor intraday swings. -> Here I am just speculating though...../
- Also, they could (more advanced operations) be using a broker to hedge on certain days
- I know they usually sell everything to melt by days end, AND, a buck below spot on silver for generic bullion is pretty good
a lot of places will give far less on buyback to the unsuspecting seller, just trying to make end's

Usually on dips it is not hard to find a decent buyer online, which although may be decent, one still often incurs more charges - ie: feebay fee's
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,424
  • Oct 31, 2013 2:12am Oct 31, 2013 2:12am
As mentioned earlier on Wednesday by a bunch here, with no break sustained above 1360+ the price would be subject to slide back to 1333 area first on correction/selling pressure.

Here she is just above 1335 at current, London just opening so it will be interesting to see if they push it up, although I am likely not going to trade this session regardless.

Considering buying this dip, yet the price is a bit too close to either a fall or a bounce (say a few bucks) right now. Not really looking to buy a failed test of support!


Silver has slid back down from 23.xx thru 22.80 to appx. 22.40 area...

Still chance for the areas to hold - going to wait and see.....
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,425
  • Oct 31, 2013 2:18am Oct 31, 2013 2:18am
Quoting XTrade
Likely # 2 on this list helped push the price down in late afternoon on Wednesday.
"""""""""""""""by
Quote
Jim Wyckoff
P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Gold Sheds Modest Gains in Wake of Mildly Bearish FOMC Statement

Wednesday October 30, 2013 2:33 PM

(Kitco News) - Gold prices were trading modestly lower in afternoon dealings Wednesday, following the much-anticipated statement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee that was deemed a bit bearish by the raw commodity markets. December Comex gold was last down $4.70 at $1,340.70 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $3.30 at $1341.50. December Comex silver last traded up $0.078 at $22.57 an ounce.

As expected, the FOMC left its very accommodative U.S. monetary policy unchanged. However, many markets deemed a bit bearish the FOMC’s remark that the U.S. economy does not have as much downside risk as that seen in previous months. Traders and investors extrapolated this to suggest the Fed could start to “taper” its monthly bond-buying program (QE) a bit earlier than many now reckon. The sense of the market place had been that the Fed would not start to cut back on its monthly bond purchases until early next year—most likely the second quarter at the earliest. Still, the latest FOMC statement, overall, does not strongly suggest a major change in that thinking by the market place.

""""""""""""""""""""""""""
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,426
  • Edited 3:13am Oct 31, 2013 2:49am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting Mave
{quote} expecting a retrace to 1300/1290 (50/61.8).. reasons - high of 1351.91 (my broker only) intact thick purple line (can we call it intermediate pivot/trend line? 'm really confused) price respecting 78.6 fibo. Any advice on momentum will be helpful. trigger - two closes below 1341.50 on H1 or M15 watch out for consumer sentiment {image}
A region to watch.. (If and when)
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A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #27,427
  • Oct 31, 2013 3:29am Oct 31, 2013 3:29am
Quoting zumarikato
Silver Eagle Bullion Coin Sales Head For Annual Record Over 40 Million - InvestmentWatch http://investmentwatchblog.com/silve...ntWatchBlog%29

Interesting read. I like Silver American Eagles. The Kiwi One ozt silver coin is usually pretty cool too but more expensive and
Silver Britannias are Awesome - yet usually with a spot price @ 20 something they are around 50 USD a pop...

Let's see. below: Also below is the chart from the article in the quoted post for American Eagles.

One of my personal favorites is the Mexican Libertad one troy oz silver coin. In Mexico, you can walk into a bank like "Banamex" and walk out with silver libertads at spot!
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,428
  • Oct 31, 2013 3:50am Oct 31, 2013 3:50am
Quoting zumarikato
{quote} Posted my chart and link and then started reading back. We share the same view, my view basicly a double post now - my bad.
Yes I saw it now, good job.Fed screwed the gold longers !!! I can't imagine those people's face now who yelled " no stoploss no stoploss we re heading to 1400" yesterday ! No surprise, still holding shorts will exit and reverse at 1326 and 1320 targeting a quick jump back to 1335 -1340.Then sell again back to 1320.After that a nice long journey will kick in.
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  • #27,429
  • Oct 31, 2013 3:57am Oct 31, 2013 3:57am
I don't know who was saying don't use a stop loss in here, yet longs are still valid.
I am still long from sub 1300 and around 1310 and I will see about buying this dip should 1330 hold.

The FED overall outlook is bearish - as you can read in the articles I have posted.

The market "Gold" has been making highs and paring gains as of late, many of us here had already called the move to 1330 before the Fed even came out.

Just because the market swings 20 bucks or so in one direction doesn't mean that it's time to abandoned all trades and jump on the bandwagon.

In fact that is exactly how institutional traders game the market, by making people think it's going one way - then in turn buying back or selling at a better price.

This dip could easily be bought up by tomorrow, just the way the loss was completely erased the other day from London, then went on to add 20 bucks.

Quoting okanemici
{quote} Yes I saw it now, good job.Fed screwed the gold longers !!! I can't imagine those people's face now who yelled \" no stoploss no stoploss we re heading to 1400\" yesterday ! No surprise, still holding shorts will exit and reverse at 1326 and 1320 targeting a quick jump back to 1335 -1340.Then sell again back to 1320.After that a nice long journey will kick in. {image}
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,430
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:03am Oct 31, 2013 4:03am
The price reach 1330 and bounce up have to wait and see maybe it will retest again.
  • #27,431
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:22am Oct 31, 2013 4:22am
Quoting XTrade
I don't know who was saying don't use a stop loss in here, yet longs are still valid. I am still long from sub 1300 and around 1310 and I will see about buying this dip should 1330 hold. The FED overall outlook is bearish - as you can read in the articles I have posted. The market \"Gold\" has been making highs and paring gains as of late, many of us here had already called the move to 1330 before the Fed even came out. Just because the market swings 20 bucks or so in one direction doesn't mean that it's time to abandoned all trades and jump on...
Hi Xtrade,

so basically you are still bullish with the following support levels, 1300, 1310 and if 1330 holds you will then go long as well for the swing up? What about the H1 moving below the 200MA, or do we focus on the higher time frames for MA's? What impact will the unemployment have on Gold, I would say it should have a direct impact on the USD which would then affect the amount for gold?

Cheers
  • #27,432
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:23am Oct 31, 2013 4:23am
It could go either way today.

In essence the FOMC being bearish "dovish" should have helped the price of gold yet, the market reacted differently.

IMO the USD rising had more affect on gold than the FOMC.

Here's more commentary on the subject. Plus, there were real clues as to the "taper."

Quote
FOMC Statement Dovish But Gold Backs Down On Profit-Taking Since Outcome Expected
(Kitco News) - A statement from the Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday was described as dovish and thus overall constructive for gold, but the metal nevertheless backed down since the Fed did not offer more fuel for a rally beyond what the market had already factored...

"but the metal nevertheless backed down since the Fed did not offer more fuel for a rally beyond what the market had already factored into prices, analysts said.
The Fed voted 9-1 to continue its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases, saying that there is still an elevated unemployment rate and that Washington’s economic policies continue to hold back growth."
---------------------------------------
"“To no surprise, the FOMC statement maintained a dovish tilt, leaving the funds rate near zero, and putting off the tapering talk for another day,” said CIBC World Markets in a note to clients. “Recent growth is described as moderate, despite a slowing in housing, and inflation below target.”

As such, some suggested the pullback was “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact” activity, or profit-taking.

There was limited change in the Fed’s language, other said."


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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,433
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:32am Oct 31, 2013 4:32am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Interesting read. I like Silver American Eagles. The Kiwi One ozt silver coin is usually pretty cool too but more expensive and Silver Britannias are Awesome - yet usually with a spot price @ 20 something they are around 50 USD a pop... Let's see. below: Also below is the chart from the article in the quoted post for American Eagles. One of my personal favorites is the Mexican Libertad one troy oz silver coin. In Mexico, you can walk into a bank like \"Banamex\" and walk out with silver libertads at spot! {image} {image} {image}
Silver American Eagles will be a nice little add on, have you checked out KrugerRands? I posted the link more for a rationalisation to buy into gold (spot and physical) at these levels. Palladium I hear also looking attractive at these levels. . . .
  • #27,434
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:34am Oct 31, 2013 4:34am
After the crazed (dare I say, manipulative) reaction across the board FOREX-wise yesterday to the FOMC reiterating that nothing has changed and nothing will change, a few days of sanity needs to return to the markets for me to make reliable entries, but I placed a small buy-order at $1330 (prior support and resistance) which was just missed. Otherwise, I am waiting for better buy/sell signals.

Silver on the other hand has dropped below my "comfort" level and may be targeting the bottom of the channel I posted yesterday, though it is just as likely to travel sideways until channel support rises to meet price as $22 is strong support. I don't scalp silver so my only interest is buying opportunities and this wasn't enough of a move down to spark my interest.

Pundits are still talking about imaginary hawkish FOMC comments to explain what happened yesterday, the missed opportunity to "taper", and "when" tapering will take place. The reality is more stimulus will be needed in 2014 to keep the US economy from tanking since the real solution to increase corporate taxation or raise the minimum wage to $15/hour will never happen.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #27,435
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:44am Oct 31, 2013 4:44am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Yes I saw it now, good job.Fed screwed the gold longers !!! I can't imagine those people's face now who yelled \" no stoploss no stoploss we re heading to 1400\" yesterday ! No surprise, still holding shorts will exit and reverse at 1326 and 1320 targeting a quick jump back to 1335 -1340.Then sell again back to 1320.After that a nice long journey will kick in. {image}
Think it maybe screwed the gold scalpers and day trader, don't think it will have much of an effect for investors. I got out a bit earlier on my short just to play safe with the 1330. Think we will be down till the unemployment claims, currently 1330 won't line up with mtf rsi as valid buy for me. Still going to check my buy zone but will target 1390 for partial take profit. Will reevaluate my current view day by day though
  • #27,436
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:45am Oct 31, 2013 4:45am
Hello traders,

one of my view H4:

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Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #27,437
  • Oct 31, 2013 4:45am Oct 31, 2013 4:45am
GM - I bought at 1331.22 in the spike down to the 1330 area - the 1m pattern was the same as this 5m - a bullish harami, with positive TVI divergence. I added another unit after the S1 level held on a small retrace.

The next area for me is now ~the 1340 level as minor resistance....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #27,438
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:12am Oct 31, 2013 5:12am
I used to have a Krugerrand, but it had a few nicks in it so I swapped it out for other PMs (tiny gold bars and some silver) I was in my "picky" bullion phase then!

They are interesting coins, I don't remember what the exact gross weight of the coin is, but, they are made with one troy oz of Gold mixed with copper to add strength
and durability to the coin. That's why they have that sort of "dark" gold complexion, as opposed to other straight .999 or 24k gold coins.

I don't think they are minted in silver.

When I am buying for my personal stash I sometimes will spend the extra bucks for a nice Government minted or High End - ie: PAMP Suisse bullion.
The problem with the Government stuff is that the premiums are usually a good deal higher than just a regular silver round.
For instance : One site may sell Eagle's for 2.99 USD over spot whereas their silver rounds "generics" may be something like 1.20 / .99 over spot.

Sometimes, (like the jewelry / coin shop) I mentioned before, it pays to get them, because the buyer "MAY" give back more on purchase than regular bullion.
If I am buying to just re-sell, I shoot for the most Generic .999 fine stuff I can get for the money and something I won't want to keep when it comes time to sell!

Eagles actually have a face value of 1 USD on them. So if one was "silly" enough to use it as cash I believe by law it has to be treated as legal tender depending on the
circumstance you are trying to use it.

Here is a Krug and a Maple leaf, not the best pictures but you should be able to see the
"Copperish" tone it has in comparison to the Maples which are .9999 "four nines fine" gold.

Quoting zumarikato
{quote} Silver American Eagles will be a nice little add on, have you checked out KrugerRands? I posted the link more for a rationalisation to buy into gold (spot and physical) at these levels. Palladium I hear also looking attractive at these levels. . . .
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,439
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:13am Oct 31, 2013 5:13am
Good points/analysis here mate! Especially the part about the "solution." Maybe you should come to the USA and run for office!

Quoting KADC
After the crazed (dare I say, manipulative) reaction across the board FOREX-wise yesterday to the FOMC reiterating that nothing has changed and nothing will change, a few days of sanity needs to return to the markets for me to make reliable entries, but I placed a small buy-order at $1330 (prior support and resistance) which was just missed. Otherwise, I am waiting for better buy/sell signals. Silver on the other hand has dropped below my \"comfort\" level and may be targeting the bottom of the channel I posted yesterday, though it is just as likely...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,440
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:21am Oct 31, 2013 5:21am
This is some new bullion which I think is a Great Idea!!! Personally I wish I had thought of it! I mean come on "Silver Bullets!" It's Genius!
I believe the first one to produce it was Northwest Territorial Mint, in the pic below.

Now a guy copper & base metal bullion shop I know has them in Copper!!!! Below is the .45 round in copper also.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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