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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,241
  • Oct 28, 2013 4:55pm Oct 28, 2013 4:55pm
Gold Want Go Up Again
First 1362 Then 1375 and maybe 1380

all there we will see Tomorrow(2013/10/29)
  • #27,242
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:05pm Oct 28, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi XTrade and friends, aw shucks... i really missed the ending diagonal blow-off by not heeding Ramses's advice to change my count. I was being over-exhuberant in my confidence that PA had turned down because I had 5 waves complete - and now look: Heavily short from the low 1350s and still 200 pips to go before i am in the green again. I almost pee'd in my sarong when that last wave 5 jumped the TL and just kept going! I guess in my favour is the fact that an ending diag is normally swiftly and completely retraced, so i should see profit...
Now here is something for DeMarkers' to ponder. Talk about going to the extreme target. 1st targets are usually a gimme. 2nd targets a maybe & 2rd targets very seldom. Gold has really extended this rally. Retracement time at last.......
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Money Makes Money
  • #27,243
  • Edited 5:43pm Oct 28, 2013 5:31pm | Edited 5:43pm
Here is the promised history of Gold from 1 July 1992 to the present. You may notice a trend, or not. Consider how long you have been using your analysis package and compare the data to this chart and see if your package stands up to the test of time. Some facts about this chart:

-Since Sept 11 attacks the value of gold has leapt up $1072.67 after retracing $568.18 from Sept 2011.
-Gold now trades at an average price currently 38 times more valuable since the turn of the millenium.
-At one point the greatest difference in price was nearly exactly 650 times between the lowest and highest price of the past fifth of a century.
-The current level of the USD:JPY was the same as 1995, yet gold has made a consistent upward strike until Aug 2011.
the first time we traded at this height was in Oct 2010 and we continue to trade gold at some of the highest prices in all of recorded history.
It is interesting to note that we have witnesed a continuous upswing since the west declared war on terrorism and began to decline in value since the announcement that that war was nearly expired in Oct 2011.

Everyone has trusted printed currencies less and less since Sept 11 attacks, but the lowest point was the week of 22 Aug 1999. To understand the context of this visit http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/august22nd.html and examine events for yourself. 3 months later gold was trading $87 higher. 2 months after the supposed millenium bug was to bite and exploded like a damp squib gold climbed up $47 and from then on declined until Sept 11 attacks and then gold shot for the moon.

Having advised for National and International finance level in government circles for nearly 12 years, there is clear reason that can be deduced for this behaviour: fear. Fear is the opposite of trust. This then means that the price of gold can probably be used to measure the level of fear in the world at almost any given time in global trading history. Severe natural disasters affect the value in a blip, but human rhetoric in political context is far more deadly than any natural disaster on currency and trade values. The enemy of consistent trade values is rumours and gossip. To this end we can sooner or later expect a crash in the value of gold or an exceptional climb if something terrible were to happen like a global-scale war or even a massive outbreak of fighting in the middle east (which is well overdue according to the markets). The highest volume of gold ever traded was in April 2013 with around a million ticks for that period.

So when someone asks where gold is going, the answer is almost always up. The best we can hope for is a return of trust in each other that the price retrace again to sensible levels, because this market says we are in global trouble which has little to do with the Great Recession. We have trust issues as nations, peoples and organisations.
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You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #27,244
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:46pm Oct 28, 2013 5:46pm
Hi everybody,

again, thanks for all your graphs and insite.

Do you guys think the Retail Sales will have a big impact on gold tomorrow in NY, or has it been factored into the price already?


Thanks again
  • #27,245
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:57pm Oct 28, 2013 5:57pm
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Now here is something for DeMarkers' to ponder. Talk about going to the extreme target. 1st targets are usually a gimme. 2nd targets a maybe & 2rd targets very seldom. Gold has really extended this rally. Retracement time at last....... {image}
Yes I think we are in for a deep correction.

http://i.imgur.com/Uunx5y9.jpg
  • #27,246
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:17pm Oct 28, 2013 6:17pm
Quoting morfasie
Hi everybody, again, thanks for all your graphs and insite. Do you guys think the Retail Sales will have a big impact on gold tomorrow in NY, or has it been factored into the price already? Thanks again
Personally, I would adopt a "wait-and-see" position from a hedge using breakout stops and sell stops/buy limits excluding TP whilst watching a 1 min chart and a tick chart. Minute-by-minute analysis is required really and you had better make sure you trade a tight stop at the lowest/highest point of the day until then...

I have never seen value of results factored into a commodity price unless it's in retail trade to a customer. Have I misunderstood your question?
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #27,247
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:44pm Oct 28, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting GqOrlando
{quote} Yes I think we are in for a deep correction. {image}
On your chart, look at the "correction" we are already "correcting" from.

It is slim at best.

A push across 1400 to 1420 at this point is warranted both by technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

Choose your entry, I can give you one if you ask.

In any case I think RamsesII said it best "watch out bears."
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,248
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:45pm Oct 28, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting morfasie
Hi everybody, again, thanks for all your graphs and insite. Do you guys think the Retail Sales will have a big impact on gold tomorrow in NY, or has it been factored into the price already? Thanks again
Not major - no. maybe a speed bump in the path. at best.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,249
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:49pm Oct 28, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} and the ED 5th alternate... {image}
The ultra-bullish count failed at that new push, so I'm favouring the ED 5th now that ive outlined earlier (be careful of possible d-e waves making new highs as ive shown it.) Am I going to short? Maybe... probably not and not for size, if at all. The upside looks better longer term still.
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #27,250
  • Oct 28, 2013 6:52pm Oct 28, 2013 6:52pm
Shoud note that ulra bullish count is actually still valid until a new below 1349..
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #27,251
  • Edited 7:46pm Oct 28, 2013 7:18pm | Edited 7:46pm
Ahh, a Lambo...
Not best suited for NYC streets.

Autobahn or bust.

In any case, it seems that there is a consideration that this move north is somewhat large?!
It is quite the opposite a small correction north at best until 1350 - 1375 and 1420 are tested - signed - sealed and delivered.
Then, the mid term target as I see it remains 1550 for "fair market value". Otherwise we will likely slide back to test
1330 after 1350 goes, subsequently, 1315, 1300..... for the "bearish view.

A post linked here I made OVER a month or so ago on what the "current" fair market price of GOLD per troy oz should be as if you were walking into a shop to buy one -
with charting back to 1885 I believe showing 3 Parabolic moves (some say four) of gold. - Many here have never held in hand an actual troy ounce of gold. I am sure many have. It is quite amazing how something so small, yet so beautiful, is worth so much money anywhere you go on this PLANET! --- NOT fiat currency! A tangible real asset/commodity you can use to trade, barter, get CA$H, almost anyone accepts Gold besides credit cards LOL!!! EVEN COMEX NOW!!! (to settle contracts)
IF this LONG UP term trend continues, the correction SOUTH we are in now is just a healthy part of any market reaction, especially in commodities.
With as you can see on the weekly only a slight move up. THUS FAR.

Now, if the last movement pushed into 1900, the next after the 1180 low - and taking into account 1050 has not been tested, we could easily move
with help from large cap specs, beyond 1550 - with a reaction high of perhaps 2500 to 3k per ozt.
But we shouldn't and will not get too far ahead of ourselves here. There is still another major DTL to break.

Gold is just now beginning to again gain attraction for multifaceted reasoning, ie: techs - Broken DTLs, - fundies - USDX crashing, no budget in the US, no clear
course of action, - as well, risk appetite has grown for gold in the past three to 5 years and there are specs that take large positions, Indian buying / wedding season,
Central Bank demand, etc.

Yet, as it is true and "beeb" had put something similar, when you are trading in high cap and have the potential to move markets, EVERYONE,
knows and can usually tell your orders just by looking at the price ladder. Thus, when a "Goldman Sachs" wants to get long/short gold for mid to long term,
they are forced to do it in sequence, placing semi- un-noticeable orders at inconspicuous times usually in dead market hours or the latter, a semi- large order in a HIGH volume session where no one will be any the wiser. While telling the lambs to "sell" they buy your loss.

Yet here we are now.

Notice how on the 3 day line the trend is suggestive and the price has a great tendency to move back to the past day's low as support.
Well any "candle" trader uses that analysis. Yet at the same "daily" trade, there are greater areas of support and resistance to take into account.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IF I was scalping I would have been filled just above 1350 for a long to see where the evening takes us.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,252
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:45pm Oct 28, 2013 7:45pm
Thanks a lot for the info Xtrade,

What does DTL mean?

Then, would our next resistance be the around 1364 with 1368/ 1375 in sight? When does the FOMC results come out, on Wednesday?
With my image, does that spinning top on the Daily for yesterday indicate that buyers have perhaps run out of steam?

Cheers everybody
Attached Image
  • #27,253
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:47pm Oct 28, 2013 7:47pm
Last post edited slightly to add the link I forgot and a few "wording" changes. With chart as well for 3 day current spot line, if it wasn't published already.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,254
  • Oct 28, 2013 7:57pm Oct 28, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting morfasie
Thanks a lot for the info Xtrade, What does DTL mean? Then, would our next resistance be the around 1364 with 1368/ 1375 in sight? When does the FOMC results come out, on Wednesday? With my image, does that spinning top on the Daily for yesterday indicate that buyers have perhaps run out of steam? Cheers everybody {image}

Hi and welcome, - anytime - Just my view -

DTL - Down Trend Line - UTL - UP Trend Line
these are more retail trader terms, I have used them with pro/institutional traders and some have no idea what I am talking about.
Just a simple acronym to make typing faster and easier. Another example is FIBER or FIBRE for EUR/USD - based off of "CABLE" for GBP/USD
because there was a sub atlantic "cable" put down in the ocean to telegraph prices back and forth between NYC and LDN back in the "day"
"Fibre" for the new Euro currency, or for Fiber Optics, became a "retail" term. Many don't use it or know it.

Weds the 30th of this week, see attached image or visit the Fx Factory calendar link at the top of the forums.

Don't see the fed funds rate going ANYwhere NEW, FOMC might heat the market up a bit, yet I am expecting the same BS out of them.
Usually, slim clues to a response such as "in the event of this economic matter the FED may decide to adjust rate by, xxx, yet if in the case we feel it is best
for the economic and fundamental stability of the nation the rate may remain unchanged"

Just for clues, then the actual number will print and I would almost bet my left arm it will remain the same.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,255
  • Oct 28, 2013 8:00pm Oct 28, 2013 8:00pm
Quoting morfasie
Thanks a lot for the info Xtrade, What does DTL mean? Then, would our next resistance be the around 1364 with 1368/ 1375 in sight? When does the FOMC results come out, on Wednesday? With my image, does that spinning top on the Daily for yesterday indicate that buyers have perhaps run out of steam? Cheers everybody {image}

Spinning tops can be two things, either "indecision" in the market or a decent enough battle at price between the bulls and the bears to print a low a high and
settle in the middle.

Usually, it means the price may drop/rise a bit, yet - if it does not and the trend is up or down, the leading force usually will use it as a clue that the opposing force is
running out of steam and will wait for higher prices to come back.

They can be very powerful on the weekly. But, at current I don't see much major movement until the Wednesday releases.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,256
  • Oct 28, 2013 9:02pm Oct 28, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Spinning tops can be two things, either \"indecision\" in the market or a decent enough battle at price between the bulls and the bears to print a low a high and settle in the middle. Usually, it means the price may drop/rise a bit, yet - if it does not and the trend is up or down, the leading force usually will use it as a clue that the opposing force is running out of steam and will wait for higher prices to come back. They can be very powerful on the weekly. But, at current I don't see much major movement until the Wednesday releases....
Thanks Xtrade
  • #27,257
  • Oct 28, 2013 9:21pm Oct 28, 2013 9:21pm
Seems like the gold price is shooting up right now. Phew, i thought i was going to lose a lot ... seems like going well right now.
Haha ... cheers, thanks xtrade for the explanations
  • #27,258
  • Oct 28, 2013 10:48pm Oct 28, 2013 10:48pm
I have closed all my short, and am now going long, start to thinking this impulse wave will brake 1375,before corrections made.
  • #27,259
  • Oct 29, 2013 12:07am Oct 29, 2013 12:07am
Quoting naser007
Gold Want Go Up Again First 1362 Then 1375 and maybe 1380 all there we will see Tomorrow(2013/10/29)

Dont Forget This Post
  • #27,260
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:42am Oct 29, 2013 2:42am
Quoting The Rhodie
{quote} Very nice and sedate. Unlike my taste, unfortunately. I very much enjoyed the Nissan GTR doing the 0-60 in 3.2 seconds out my gate. That was easily the best feeling of a supercharged twin-turbo jet sound I have heard. As much as I'd like a Ferrari I am unable to qualify paying THAT amount of money for insurance! I considered a Lambo, but Brit roads are decidedly not suitable for such a low-slung deck-skimmer. Ahh, we can all dream, but seriously think that this market in XAU is going to keep testing higher. As an example, I include a chart...
Agreed and I would have posted the F Type, but found that old pic first. Back then nothing could touch a well set up E Type..... Today's cars - especially your GTR are unbelievable and that must be the best "bang for your buck" available......for this island, I make do with a Golf GTI Turbo.

Thanks for that great post on the history of gold
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