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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #27,061
  • Oct 23, 2013 6:24pm Oct 23, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting XTrade
I have to commend you for the way you answer people’s questions, offer advice and help newbies. I am also amazed at what you put up with – the recent arrogant incursion by some know-it-all who tried to hijack your thread and make demands of you was ridiculous. People who don’t show respect for you and the work that you have put in do not deserve the knowledge and insights that you make available for free on the thread...
I second the comment. Anyone can see the professional way this thread is handled by XTrade and many contributions from strong participants are great. It is my hope that this remains a professional thread where due respect is shown.
All's fair in love and trading
  • #27,062
  • Oct 23, 2013 6:50pm Oct 23, 2013 6:50pm
Quoting XTrade
From my buddy and one of the BEST traders I know. \"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\" XTrade As a “commercial member” I can’t post on your thread but I do keep an eye on it. I have to commend you for the way you answer people’s questions, offer advice and help newbies. I am also amazed at what you put up with – the recent arrogant incursion by some know-it-all who tried to hijack your thread and make demands of you was ridiculous. People who don’t show respect for you and the work that you have put in do not deserve the knowledge...
Very clear Point & Figure Chart
Thanks XTrade for posting it

DRT
  • #27,063
  • Oct 23, 2013 9:11pm Oct 23, 2013 9:11pm
XTrade, here is my big view analysis for Gold.

Gold since 2011-09-06 (1920.01) until 2013-06-28 (1179.72) still in forming a down wave. At this down wave gold already made one Consensus Area (1522.37 to 1795.85) before gold continuing down wave. And finally on 2013-06-28 Gold made lower price at 1179.72. Since that lower price was formed Gold is moving up and down above 1179.72.

In my view, i called it that Gold is in forming a new Consensus Area after 'market' reject to move price below 1179.72. So, I assume the new Consensus Area will be formed between 1179.72 and 1522.37 (Previous Lower Consensus Area).Actually, i dont know where Gold is going but i use simple math to measure it. Middle levels that i use on chart help me to determine it.

So if price stay above 1342.62, i assume gold will try moving up to 1433.70, 1487.81 or 1522.37 i dont lnow ejactly where gold where to go buat at least i can assume the target.

And if price stay below 1306.93, i assume gold will try moving down continuing down wave, target could be 1251.58, 1179.72 or lower.

And if gold stuck between 1306.93 to 1342.62, i assume gold in crazy sideway hehehehehehe.

That's how i analyze our lovely gold. Please correct me.


DRT


http://i40.tinypic.com/29oqre0.png
  • #27,064
  • Oct 23, 2013 9:44pm Oct 23, 2013 9:44pm
Quoting Markmania
{quote} I second the comment. Anyone can see the professional way this thread is handled by XTrade and many contributions from strong participants are great. It is my hope that this remains a professional thread where due respect is shown.

Thank you, I try to be fair and just to all, especially the new Gold/Silver traders.

I am only here to give back and I will always engage in an enlightening DISCUSSION with any willing participant.

However - There comes a point where I need to draw the line, whether it is towards me or towards another member.

This is the reason I created rules instead of a voucher limit, because I believe every one deserves a fair shot or I actually give 3,

In any case I appreciate your response.

The rules are very simple and strategic at the same time, I really don't think they are too much to ask.
They are in POST ONE and all regular Fx Factory rules apply.

Due to the fact that this thread is non commercial and free, we do have the liberty to joke around, discuss other FX pairs and certainly commodities like brent, WTI, copper, etc.

However on a major news day and at that a major TRADE day, I will no longer tolerate disruption to the some 70 people that were viewing at the moment.

Again, my kind thanks.
XT-
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,065
  • Oct 23, 2013 9:44pm Oct 23, 2013 9:44pm
Quoting Drentaga
{quote} Very clear Point & Figure Chart Thanks XTrade for posting it DRT
No Problem.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,066
  • Oct 23, 2013 9:45pm Oct 23, 2013 9:45pm
Looking now.

Quoting Drentaga
XTrade, here is my big view analysis for Gold. Gold------------- That's how i analyze our lovely gold. Please correct me. DRT {image}
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,067
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:12pm Oct 23, 2013 10:12pm
DRT,

I really don't even need to review your chart I can simply go off the words and levels you have put forth.
First, I don't believe YOU need any correction here.

Second, I agree- in this sense. There was a huge - too huge in my view in April on the daily where gold slid 200 USD in two days. Not normal.
Now, that being said, the end result here was a reaction low of 1180, should one look at the wicks or a simple line chart it is CLEAR,
that support was strong at 1200.00
and the price moved back above. Since then we have had some swings into the 1450 area and some swing lows into the 1250 area, never again
testing 1200 or let alone the high 1100's.

So, After the last test and new low @ say 1250 to keep things round, gold has not come close to re-entry of the 1100s.
Thus, there has been a range of support now created between the two price points.

Gold is at this point poised to make a great and LARGE move upwards, way past 1450,
YET there is strong resistance @ 1350/1353

This level will indeed need to be crossed to maintain further upwards momentum,
Yet, as I said before. 1180 is now a sealed support level or 1200,
On the best and the latest tests downwards we have not come close to 1200.

On the sideways note, YES, gold especially with all the factors that weigh in on the price could easily move sideways in a range for a bit
of time, until the next release.

However, After trading FX for some years now, reading and researching what "FIAT CURRENCY" is, as well as the "race to debase"
it is beneficial and detrimental for a country to have too high or too low of a currency for various fundamentals / such as import export / etc.
So all countries take measures wether exposed - like intervention by a central bank - or unexposed, like trading without releasing any knowledge of such.
In a sense they are both forms of manipulation of the currency rate. Some countries PEG their currency so it can only float so much.

In any case we are dealing with a finite (at any given day) commodity that acts as a GLOBAL currency,
Thus,
again at this point - the fundamentals and the techs LOOK GOOD for further price increase,
However, with all the multifaceted "reasons" that affect GOLD we can never be too sure.

Trade smart and use proper RR and leverage. Gold Likes horizontal support and resistance more so than even a TL that has been in effect for
5 years, cause - it's just there - on the charts, it will range right through.

Gold Likes, fear, NEWS, greed and rumors as well. Yet there is always a way to trade it technically if you open up your charts to the daily and weekly.

XT


Quoting Drentaga
XTrade, here is my big view analysis for Gold. Gold since 2011-09-06 (1920.01) until 2013-06-28 (1179.72) still in forming a down wave. At this down wave gold already made one Consensus Area (1522.37 to 1795.85) before gold continuing down wave. And finally on 2013-06-28 Gold made lower price at 1179.72. Since that lower price was formed Gold is moving up and down above 1179.72. In my view, i called it that Gold is in forming a new Consensus Area after 'market' reject to move price below 1179.72. So, I assume the new Consensus Area will be formed...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,068
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:21pm Oct 23, 2013 10:21pm
My humble study of 4 hour chart with Heiken Ashi candles and 100 and 360 Bollinger Bands. Wrong time to enter any trades. Better wait till something develops

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  • #27,069
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:25pm Oct 23, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting XTrade
DRT, I really don't even need to review your chart I can simply go off the words and levels you have put forth. ...........Gold Likes, fear, NEWS, greed and rumors as well. Yet there is always a way to trade it technically if you open up your charts to the daily and weekly. XT {quote}
Thanks XT, always love your comment...

DRT
  • #27,070
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:55pm Oct 23, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting RabbitWolf
My humble study of 4 hour chart with Heiken Ashi candles and 100 and 360 Bollinger Bands. Wrong time to enter any trades. Better wait till something develops {image}

Not always the wrong time, keep an eye on the simple price action - and the NEWS..

Since you are using an H4 I assume you are looking for at least a 25 to 50 USD MOVE in GOLD.

If the range keeps sideways, the gains are further pared and thus, I would make a simple range using horizontal S/R,
buy the bottom - use a tightish - stop depending on the prior day's lows and see what happens..
You have nothing to lose but much to gain,

Likewise, if you feel the price will break range support south - sell the top with the same parameters set forth.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,071
  • Oct 23, 2013 10:55pm Oct 23, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting Drentaga
{quote} Thanks XT, always love your comment... DRT
Anytime my friend - Welcome to the thread!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,072
  • Edited Oct 24, 2013 12:16am Oct 23, 2013 11:35pm | Edited Oct 24, 2013 12:16am
divergence ?

desending triangle ?

where is the staircase leading to ..?
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Attached Image
  • #27,073
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:09am Oct 24, 2013 12:09am
KiwiOz ,

can u post a very recent close-up shot of ur Magnetic Line (aka improved DeMark) 4H chart , please ?

i am unable to visualize it in my 4H chart .
Attached Image
  • #27,074
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:12am Oct 24, 2013 12:12am
Quoting TheArcher
where is the staircase leading to ..? divergence ? desending triangle ? {image} {image}
Archer, It keeps climbing just the way you have outlined until the second support breaks, then we have to question it.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,075
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:15am Oct 24, 2013 12:15am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Archer, It keeps climbing just the way you have outlined until the second support breaks, then we have to question it.
These are the "stairs" up, we always need to be wary of the "elevator ride" down.

Should 1350 break and get flipped we can easily see 1450.

Yet, we NEED TO TAKE OUT 1350 and flip and Seal it as support. FIRST,
next once the price starts to test closer to 1500 large cap specs will come in again for a nice ride likely on their return 1800 will test and go.
IMO
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #27,076
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:43am Oct 24, 2013 12:43am
Just playing tick-tack in a small consensus area during this sideway phase.
And watching the levels.

DRT

http://i42.tinypic.com/9sysdh.png
  • #27,077
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:33am Oct 24, 2013 1:33am
in my charts monthly pivot is 1345, if we break and stay above it it can re open way to 1375 area, i am still waiting 1325 to short this.
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  • #27,078
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:46am Oct 24, 2013 2:46am
My bias for gold is to look for a long positions from 1325 area.
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  • #27,079
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:12am Oct 24, 2013 3:12am
Quoting venzen
{quote} very nice analysis and forecast. looking at that stochastic it seems the upside has already begun - just seems the stoch won't allow the additional downside shown - although the reverse divergence in RSI might... thanks for the headsup R2R, we have plenty of time to enter trades on that rally!
no problem.

im not sure if we will see that last low or not. its a hard call to make.

id rather keep my long though incase it doesnt come. it would be nice to buy in the $17s.

if hits BE that is fine, ill look to buy again
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #27,080
  • Oct 24, 2013 6:18am Oct 24, 2013 6:18am
I often post these 3 day line charts and find them helpful to look at the "broader" term for the week at hand.

Here we can see the last move up and how as of yet, the sideways movement has gone.

With today, 2 days left until weeks close, yet, we are over the hump and it would seem as of now Gold & Silver are on track to paring the gains for this week,

with mind you a real possibility now of making another high.

It's a bit early yet with NY not open, yet the Asian London cross session has seemed to keep the momentum going.

Seems noteworthy to mention silver has finally broken out of the "cell" that 21 had seemed to become and appears to be on track for an almost 2 USD gain.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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