Dislikedhey XAU people I have big picture of Gold of last rough 12 months with my thoughts and predictions... ok. this chart is H12, Heiken, XAU/USD and 200 EMA. As you can see Gold has been in general downtrend, starting from 1684 on January 23rd. - so far there painted 3 major consolidation zones 1>2>3 with break-outs in-between. - all 3 zones are part of the 'holy downtrend' - the August break between 2nd and 3rd zones was major but it still got trend back under EMA now current consolidation which as you can see broke recently around 1317 (it has left...Ignored
Interesting presentation of the facts.
I try to only take longer term views on direction when PA provides the confirmation and right now Gold is not being forthcoming with its intention. Up or down - don't know. Would like to, but cannot be sure yet.
Regarding the fundamentals, I wonder if there is any proven correlation between fundamentals and PA? What I know for sure is that it is the participants' reaction to fundamentals that cause them to buy and sell. So what may be good news one day and cause investors, traders, etc to bid the price up can equally be considered bad news (or irrelevant) a few months later and cause a sell-off or no reaction at all. To illustrate my point another way: If fundamentals truly moved PA then the EurUsd should have been at 0.01 during the darkest days of the Eurozone crisis. Yet, at that time it shot to new highs - on dismall bad news and fundamentals so shocking that people anticipated a breakup of the EU. Logic dictates that fundamentals therefore play a part but do not move price in themselves. It can more accurately be said that 'Hope' and 'Fear' do.
As for the future, it is evident from history that any kind of equities sell-off is USD positive (because of money flowing out of paper into cash). This then implies a drop in the Gold price. However, during shock events we sometimes see equities being sold off (flight to safety) and Gold rallying (flight to safety) at the same time. What I see discussed a lot recently is the idea that, should equities crash violently or for a long time, there could be a major sell-off in Gold as investors shed hard portfolio assets to fund their broker/investment bank account shortfall. There are also the charges of manipulation, etc, as well as the fact that central banks are hoarding. So the vectors acting on the price of Gold are many - too many to definitively know and compute at the same time.
In my view it's truly one day at a time.
cryptocurrency everytime