XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

1180 is now at risk, the bottom will fall out if that fails.

Around Comex open, but nowhere near London am or pm fix time.

yes.
i am just curious where it goes...although sentiment data are bad, no movement of USD index.

Fund managers are dumping gold, they have been paring their ETP holdings in recent months.

risk is on, fear is on what else is there to buy? gold will raise soon or later and it's October already. fund managers will keep gold unless they went busted. 1180 is nonsense.

You mean fear "was" on, the fear gauge (vix) is down again today, it hit 20 a few days ago when there was fear.

Its unfortunate that gold did not track fear higher, I guess the fund managers who were holding gold must be disappointed.

This is interesting. A push down at 3:30 p.m. EST yesterday afternoon to non-technical level $1,282, just shy of the target $1,277 to ensure no take-profit or buy orders were hit would be exactly where I'd want to place the price of gold if I wanted to break through $1,277 as I'd need the price to be close enough to $1,277 that a single push could drive it down far enough to trigger the stop losses for the buy orders at that level. Sure enough, at U.S. pre-market open a sell order for ~2 million ounces (~$2.6 billion) in U.S. gold futures was placed to do exactly that. That's a ballsy move using actual futures which will be scrutinized for trade-code violations, but then again nothing will be done about it in the U.S. anyway (worst case scenario is relatively minor fines) whereas there seems to be a growing threat of actual prosecutions in Europe so perhaps that was the most sensible move. I haven't looked into the options orders as yet.

What's interesting is the lack of follow through from the rest of the market at U.S. open. Silver's similar plunge has already made a 50% recovery (though that seems to be giving away slightly) whereas the volume for gold trading has exceeded the level that pushed it down without moving it in either direction. This indicates strong resistance from the market for gold to move lower but gold would need to return to $1,300ish in order to erase this current move. It's more likely, and therefore just a matter of time, before we see the next push down because no-one spends $2.6 billion without a plan to follow through.

Timing-wise, there seems to be strong opposition to further downward movement so it might make sense to wait until after London closes like yesterday if the market doesn't give in on its own. The problem with that being that the Chinese could unravel all the bearish gains plus we're going into a North American holiday weekend so the next push down might not happen until next week.

Regardless, if price drifts up to $1,277, thus indicating a return to technical movement, I'd be willing to short with a stop just on the other side, otherwise a break below today's opening-range low of $1,262 targets $1,240 (see prior daily charts). Taking a long position at this point isn't something I'm interested in doing.

KADC, thanks for sharing your view. Sounds logic,no one sells so much without a plan. Next week is going to be interesting, but I risked and took a long position. I just could not help it)

What about this?

http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-...-event-2013-10

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101106134?__s...medium=twitter

That is very interesting and it explains the lack of follow-through after the stop orders were taken out. I suspect that someone, somewhere, is getting reprimanded for not taking that into consideration.

I did as well based on the assumption that there would be a bounce at $1,277. When I got home early this morning and saw the 3:30 p.m. EST drop to $1,282 without breaking back above $1,300 I knew $1,277 wouldn't hold but I was far too tired to place a sell order and cancel my buy order.

I went to bed with the full knowledge that I was going to wake up four digits in the hole -- lesson learned, paid for, and duly noted if the situation repeats itself in either direction in the future.

Closed my XAUCHF 1196 short and went long at 1159. Missed entry at 1151 but what can I do ?

have been buying today due to this, also strong support in 1260 area on the daily

Sorry , Being new here . Just wanted to ask a question .

If gold drop below to 1260 so will it meet with previous low as 1177 ? .

If i was not wrong strong resistant at 1260 . ?

* Correct me if i am wrong thanks *

I not that much experienced to comment during these noisy times..

What are your comments for gold? Seems like going to north at first like a retracement and then way down.


Why retracement?

-Bullish divergence on H1
-1.260 area "can" be strong support, trend seems oversold.


Looks logical ?

I am new in gold too .

But I did go for long .

Try figuring should hold my long or cancel my long

Look forward on 1260 . * looks strong support there *

-Looking on H1 chart and H4 oversold has been done
-USD currency looks weaken .
* worrying about next week trend anyway * .

what is a strong support when there someone who can sell 5000 gold futures at once? however, price should have dropped further down. Central banks can sell paper to buy real gold for peanuts which leads you to a very relative concept of strength of a support. however, judging by recent events, 1250ish is probably the threshold where paper meets real gold. I place my two cents there. 1180 is not at reach in this particular time of the year IMHO. Probably end of year.

I was just sent this link to a Kingsworld interview with Andrew Maguire who shares similar views about the timing and direction the market is headed with regard to announcements by entities such as Goldman Sachs. (AKA: The Vampire Squid)

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ld_Market.html