XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

it is tempting to say we have an ascending triangle ..... if not for the poor formation of the triangle and the divergence in the volume

curious to learn and know .... based on what did u come to this conclusion ? any indicators that shows this ?

Is this breakout in AG leading AU, or is it just a flash in the pan?
If the H&S in the AU daily fails, the 1350-1365 is overrun AND the fundis line up, I will be a buyer.

all in good

1334 is where I want to destroy that higher highs and short it

I'm sure that the gold price will fall at least until 1274.20 and go up like a jet. lol

phenomenal

Maybe they meant mahna mahna volume?

http://www.muppetsmahnamahna.com/

Meanwhile on the funnymental front:

Gold befuddles Bernanke as central banks’ losses at $545 billion

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/10/07...&t=commodities

Thanks for pointing this out.

Volume (buy or sell variety) if anything has been declining steadily and will probably continue to do so until a resolution one way or the other to the raising the debt level issue by Oct 17th has happened:

The US government is expected to reach its debt ceiling on October 17th. Congress may wait until October 16th at midnight ET before coming to an agreement. Raising the debt ceiling usually leads to a higher price in gold.


It all makes sense now. October 16th.........I will be looking to trade South for the next week. Then prepare for take off............http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_forum/i...ilies/cool.png

hurdle or reversal?

Mave, about your question re: Gold and inflation:

there is a longstanding belief that (over the longterm) Gold protects one's wealth against the ravages of inflation. Here are two links. The first just defines "Inflation Hedge" and the second discusses Gold in this role.

www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation-hedge.asp

http://www.gold.org/investment/why_a...and_inflation/

Inflation is defined as the rate at which prices for goods and services rises. It is better understood as an osmosis between "things" and "money" present in the economy: as more and more "money" circulates in the system, the price of "things" increase correspondingly.

So, "Don Quixote" is saying that when inflation expectations rise (in the US and also in the global economy) then one could also expect the value of Gold to increase as investors flock to it for protection. The Fed, of course, has an inflation target which is higher than where inflation is at present. But they are struggling to achieve it because the "recovery" (needed to increase inflation) is eluding them. The thinking is that if rates are kept low (easy money available via loans) and more people become employed then one could expect the inflation rate to rise, since there is more and more money in circulation and "things" become more and more expensive. If you look at this flow - of an increase in the "money" driving prices of "things" higher - then you can see that inflation, over time, decreases the value of the currency. For example: a burger costs $1.00 today but due to the effect of inflation, after one year it costs $1.25 - our $1 has lost purchasing power. The more money is added into circulation, the less valuable the money becomes. Eventually, every period of inflation ends and then the opposite starts to happen - there is less and less money in circulation and "things" get cheaper. By implication the smaller money base translates into a stronger (more valuable) currency.

If you had changed some of your money into Gold at the start of the inflationary period then (since Gold would have gradually risen in price throughout the period), once the inflationary period ends you convert your Gold back to currency and have 1) more money than if you had just kept cash and 2) the currency is now stronger, so the net effect is you have multiplied your wealth via the inflation hedge.

We are currently in a period where there is a belief that the global economy is improving and therefore we stand at the beginning of an inflationary period (low rates, easy money and low current inflation rate). But there is another view that we have only been in the eye of the recessionary storm and that the global economy is about to tank in a major way. There is another set of logic and theory about this scenario (that I won't delve into now) but the outcome is basically Deflation - where the money base shrinks and "things" become cheaper. "Things" literally means "everything": stocks, burger, house, Gold.

The core of the Deflationary argument is based around the fact that, in modern economics, debt is counted toward the "money" base in the inflationary equation. It follows that should the debt be written off (or defaulted on) then the money base will suddenly shrink. Consider that the $85bil worth of "money" being "printed" by the Fed every month, is not cash notes but DEBT.

We cannot anticipate when or where and the path we will go down remains to be seen. No sweat. Remain alert and open to change.

hi Archer,

I propose that XAU may be making a leading diagonal as seen in XAG back in July. It's the only fractal i can find that matches the current "triangle-but-not-a-triangle" pattern... My original expectation is that 1335 should be struck and then down to 1275 again before blast off, but this may well be the start of a longer term uptrend. If not we will soon (by Oct 17) find out!

http://ubuntuone.com/0UuytTIWkY5pSke24tDa8T

1323.75 is the pivotal area in my opinion, here´s what I´m looking at

http://i.imgur.com/4y7lnOr.jpg

Looks like a good place to short

Here is what I think.This month and november will be down , starting from december it will be an uptrend imho.

Watching reaction 1333 and 1343 area. I am a bit bearish because despite huge amount of uncertainty gold has failed to rally. 1318 is support area.

hi Scalptastic,

I also have that decending TL across the LHs and see it most people's charts. Thing is: it's been breached by the close and repopen above it. Confirmation of the breakout will no doubt come when the retest shows PA's intentions higher or lower.