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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #26,101
  • Oct 3, 2013 4:18am Oct 3, 2013 4:18am
Quoting MrketSniper
{quote} For gold, I am still trading with demo.
cool
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,102
  • Oct 3, 2013 4:35am Oct 3, 2013 4:35am
Quoting letscry
guys tomorrow there wont a nonfarm data right?
There's jobless claims tonight, I think that might just be the catalyst to bring this down below 1300 again, its looking weak now.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #26,103
  • Oct 3, 2013 9:50am Oct 3, 2013 9:50am
Yesterday long hit my targets at 1322 but with everything that´s been going on and the US the ISM NMPMI were expected to be worse than last month´s reading; I was planning to buy a dip on gold.

Great levels pre data were held, I entered the market and here´s where e are now.

http://prntscr.com/1v07dy

Current monthly high is 1337.16 and I´m looking for a test around that area; 1332 to be more accurate

stops at BE given though
  • #26,104
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:30am Oct 3, 2013 10:30am
big fight to take 1320...
  • #26,105
  • Oct 3, 2013 10:46am Oct 3, 2013 10:46am
Quoting GqOrlando
Yesterday long hit my targets at 1322 but with everything that´s been going on and the US the ISM NMPMI were expected to be worse than last month´s reading; I was planning to buy a dip on gold. Great levels pre data were held, I entered the market and here´s where e are now. http://prntscr.com/1v07dy Current monthly high is 1337.16 and I´m looking for a test around that area; 1332 to be more accurate stops at BE given though
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,106
  • Oct 3, 2013 11:08am Oct 3, 2013 11:08am
gold bulls will claim what is rightfully ours.. 1320 xD
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,107
  • Edited 11:51am Oct 3, 2013 11:41am | Edited 11:51am
the descending triangle did work .

i am setting my mind to zero .... and switching off for the day .
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  • #26,108
  • Edited 12:41pm Oct 3, 2013 11:49am | Edited 12:41pm
Quote
Scalptastic;7003875]{image}

had i seen ur chart earlier , i would have said its a bull flag

btw, what is the timeframe (1 hr,2hr, 4hr) ?
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  • #26,109
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:05pm Oct 3, 2013 1:05pm
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  • #26,110
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:07pm Oct 3, 2013 1:07pm
i feel a bit silly , but can't help it :

divergence again ?
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  • #26,111
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:50pm Oct 3, 2013 1:50pm
Quoting TheArcher
{image}
Interesting and telling linework mate!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,112
  • Oct 3, 2013 1:52pm Oct 3, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting TheArcher
{quote} had i seen ur chart earlier , i would have said its a bull flag btw, what is the timeframe (1 hr,2hr, 4hr) ? {image}

The bullflag is evident on H1 / H4 +

Yet, one would have expected completion today after the bounce off the low around 1300.

This is not to say it can't complete, yet the more time that drags on - the further the chart pattern pushes itself towards invalidity.

Let me take a look I think I charted it as well....
Good work.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,113
  • Oct 3, 2013 4:52pm Oct 3, 2013 4:52pm
Working on INV_H nd' S chart.

Will try to paint a quick bull flag projection as well.

Bull flag closer to negation as such that it is a smaller TF pattern.

INV daily H n' S pattern is pushing the boundaries at this point. We can still absorb this last dip into the right shoulder, yet, should another Lower LOW,
happen the pattern may be rendered invalid and thus, useless, to trade.

Stranger things have happened where a burst comes after negation, yet is this reallly pattern completion? Or just new price action?
We know that these patterns, especially the Head and Shoulders - reg or inverse - are usually far from "textbook" yet, there has to be a point where the
pattern is simply invalid.

Similar to a HUGE bullish cup and handle I was posting about here about a year and a half + ago. Then, in the end, the far from perfect,
although nicely formed pattern, simply "ranged out" rendering it useless and invalid.

Charts to follow....
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,114
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:10pm Oct 3, 2013 6:10pm
Prices pulled back from 1.272 fibonacci level up to .764 area. (1.322)

Last day i wrote that first R level is 1305 and then second i guess is 1320 area.

If 0.764 fibo level works (seems working for now) i guess prices would go to south down to 1.265 area.

On H4 chart, i see a shooting star,also touched 50 day ema on H4,200 day ema on H1.


For tomorrow if prices would fall, i wont expect it down to 1.265 area (1.618 fibo level), 1.270 area maybe.. i hope..
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  • #26,115
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:32pm Oct 3, 2013 6:32pm
I also see a push lower as the overall trend is down. Even though we´ve had some strong move up the upper trend line of the channel has held strongly (4th touch) and we are also at a heavy resistance level

1277 (2 month low), which is also the 61.8 of the entire move up was tested and rejected. Looking at the huge pressure we have up I think a retest of this level might be comming

http://prntscr.com/1v3svw
  • #26,116
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:41pm Oct 3, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting GqOrlando
I also see a push lower as the overall trend is down. Even though we´ve had some strong move up the upper trend line of the channel has held strongly (4th touch) and we are also at a heavy resistance level 1277 (2 month low), which is also the 61.8 of the entire move up was tested and rejected. Looking at the huge pressure we have up I think a retest of this level might be comming http://prntscr.com/1v3svw

And a RSI divergence on H4
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,117
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:44pm Oct 3, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting Mave
{quote} And a RSI divergence on H4
mild one but well spoted sir
  • #26,118
  • Oct 3, 2013 8:55pm Oct 3, 2013 8:55pm
Trading theory for today --

price action lately.. correct me if i'm wrong or thinking too much..


oct 1 - gaps up on open, 1250 test and huge fall to find support from long term bull 61.8 fibonacci retracement
oct 2 - finds support on 61.8 fibo and clears levels : 1300, 1305, 1309 ( the mid-point of big bear bar), 1315 and tests 1322 before closing the day over 1315
oct 3 - falls but failure to test 1300, finds support at 1309 & 1312 before testing 1322 to close above 1315

Pivot =1315 (lots of reactions) ?

3 prior weekly candles have support at 1325

I'll bet on a close over 1325 and possibly testing the 1350 level it did at the open of the week.. 1330 = level to watch on the up..
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A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,119
  • Oct 3, 2013 9:14pm Oct 3, 2013 9:14pm
Weekly pivot is 1342 and other than part of Monday all trading this week has been below it. Not bullish to me.

Wednesday's daily bar was an inside day and basically unchanged. Neither bullish or bearish like much of the PA lately.

But my opinion, nothing has happened to sway my overall bearish stance.
  • #26,120
  • Oct 3, 2013 9:50pm Oct 3, 2013 9:50pm
looks like maybe up in C of 4? kind of an oddball count i have though with the truncted v'th wave, but how else do you correlate i-ii with iii-iv size-wise?
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
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