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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #26,041
  • Oct 2, 2013 11:00am Oct 2, 2013 11:00am
Curious what all the "manipulators" will say if gubmint comes to an agreement shortly (day or two or three) and Gold drops once again.
  • #26,042
  • Oct 2, 2013 11:08am Oct 2, 2013 11:08am
Quoting KADC
Silver has broken through the bottom of its prior consolidation zone. Breaking above upper resistance at ~$20.50 would be a strong indicator of reversal of trend. Gold has further to go with bottom of its consolidation channel being around $1,330 and a break above $1,350 being necessary to confirm reversal of trend, but daily RSI has now broken resistance (needs to be confirmed by tomorrow's candle) so I would keep a close eye on any shorts from wherever gold stops today.
With anticipation of retracement today on yesterday's awkward and somewhat price action I took longs (prior ones got TP'd on Sunday open- I guess I'm lucky in a sense cause I was going to adjust the TP higher...) Although my entry is slightly worse I am still sub 1300 and going to wait and see how tomorrow pans out, if overnight holds.
above 1315 area.

Not holding anything in either direction for too long until this "trend" sorts itself out.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,043
  • Oct 2, 2013 11:10am Oct 2, 2013 11:10am
Quoting SunTrader
Curious what all the "manipulators" will say if gubmint comes to an agreement shortly (day or two or three) and Gold drops once again.

It likely will come to some type of agreement in a rather short period of time unless they really want to create a sh--tstorm.
today is basically a natural reaction to yesterdays drop. Perhaps with a little added steam.

Yet I don't see this as being an inflated price due to the "GubberMint" - if we were at 1450 then welp, It would be.. IMO.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,044
  • Oct 2, 2013 11:13am Oct 2, 2013 11:13am
Are you suggesting that there is no manipulation in this market?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,045
  • Oct 2, 2013 11:35am Oct 2, 2013 11:35am
Quoting XTrade
Are you suggesting that there is no manipulation in this market?
There always has and always will be manipulation. But not to the extent many believe it is.

The way the word is thrown around here I think it is used mainly by some who guess wrong on what else; an upmove that doesn't materialize.

Not my fault, dog ate my homework thing.
  • #26,046
  • Oct 2, 2013 11:40am Oct 2, 2013 11:40am
Take yesterday for instance, why are the manipulators allowing it to rise today.

Oh yeah because now they were long after the drop.

Never fails in explaining moves up (they got in when it dropped), moves down (they got in when it rose).

They wanted it to go up, they wanted it to go down.

Yes you too can be a manipulator, just send $19.95 + S&H to Acme Manipulators Inc 123 Wall Street, NY NY 10101

And if you act now .....

  • #26,047
  • Edited 12:01pm Oct 2, 2013 11:46am | Edited 12:01pm
tweezers (double) bottom ? lets see how the candle closes .

EDIT : looks like KADC had touched on this a few posts back .
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  • #26,048
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:15pm Oct 2, 2013 12:15pm
My chart for today

support 1312/1311
resistance 1330.. then the upper trendline
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A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,049
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:19pm Oct 2, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting SunTrader
Take yesterday for instance, why are the manipulators allowing it to rise today. Oh yeah because now they were long after the drop. Never fails in explaining moves up (they got in when it dropped), moves down (they got in when it rose). They wanted it to go up, they wanted it to go down. Yes you too can be a manipulator, just send $19.95 + S&H to Acme Manipulators Inc 123 Wall Street, NY NY 10101 And if you act now .....

Gold traders have returned from the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) conference yesterday where 700 delegates saw gold at 1,405 an ounce by November 2014. The lack of liquidity from so many absent traders also helps to explain the sharp move yesterday where sell stops struggled to find buyers.
We have now bounced strongly from the lows which could indicate a return to neutral from a very nervous position yesterday.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,050
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:28pm Oct 2, 2013 12:28pm
it must do a pennat to breakout the resistance . but also notice the overbought level of RSI.
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  • #26,051
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:28pm Oct 2, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting SunTrader
Take yesterday for instance, why are the manipulators allowing it to rise today. Oh yeah because now they were long after the drop. Never fails in explaining moves up (they got in when it dropped), moves down (they got in when it rose). They wanted it to go up, they wanted it to go down. Yes you too can be a manipulator, just send $19.95 + S&H to Acme Manipulators Inc 123 Wall Street, NY NY 10101 And if you act now .....
I think all markets have some manipulation in it, but the "relatively" small size of silver and gold markets allow the manipulators to move prices quickly.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #26,052
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:31pm Oct 2, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting TheArcher
it must do a pennat to breakout the resistance . but also notice the overbought level of RSI. {image}

do you think that upper trendline would have been tested during the previous rally?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,053
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:32pm Oct 2, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting Mave
{quote} Gold traders have returned from the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) conference yesterday where 700 delegates saw gold at 1,405 an ounce by November 2014. The lack of liquidity from so many absent traders also helps to explain the sharp move yesterday where sell stops struggled to find buyers. We have now bounced strongly from the lows which could indicate a return to neutral from a very nervous position yesterday.

one year from now ? such a long time : what happens in between now and then ?
  • #26,054
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:35pm Oct 2, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
Take yesterday for instance, why are the manipulators allowing it to rise today. Oh yeah because now they were long after the drop. Never fails in explaining moves up (they got in when it dropped), moves down (they got in when it rose). They wanted it to go up, they wanted it to go down. Yes you too can be a manipulator, just send $19.95 + S&H to Acme Manipulators Inc 123 Wall Street, NY NY 10101 And if you act now .....

They could just send it to me or you directly and I will in turn manipulate the market as they see fit!

Yes, it is an easy card to pull, yet, I didn't hear it yesterday.

I usually only pull the manipulation card when a degree of time and a complete lack of any correlation between price and techs, fundies or news, or all three at once,
breaks down and the market is in complete BS land. Either underpriced or overpriced.

Usually, there are more long traders than short in commodities like Gold and Oil for the longer term, so it is more likely to hear it on moves down,
which mind you are, always steeper in their exaggeration than those manipulated upwards.

It is funny how when the "call miss" game is played, well it must be manipulation comes out- granted.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,055
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:38pm Oct 2, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting TheArcher
{quote} one year from now ? such a long time : what happens in between now and then ?
Yeah that's a weeeeee bit long viewed in my opinion especially if they see the price returning to neutral which would be anywhere from 50 to 75 bucks below 1405,
we could make that break in two nice days north.

However, perhaps the "suggestion" here is that the price will decline again, then return to this level.

Either way I won't put too much stock in anything a bunch of London "manipulators" say!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YIKES!!!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,056
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:39pm Oct 2, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting andan
{quote} hi, Zappa... i'm with you
This one's turning out good so far.

To get in on the manipulation debate. I used to think it was obvious that manipulation was present. Now, not so much. The market is so perfect--all the time, and in virtually all markets--at going to where the stops should be, that I'm starting to believe it really just is supply and demand. George Soros said, and I paraphrase, "Traders always think there is somebody manipulating markets. They just can't believe it is supply and demand."
  • #26,057
  • Edited 1:09pm Oct 2, 2013 12:43pm | Edited 1:09pm
That was intended to be half funny.... but.

Here is their page for inquiring minds who want to know.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm
"

The London Market

London is the focus of the international Over-the-Counter (OTC) market for gold and silver, with a client base that includes the majority of the central banks that hold gold, plus producers, refiners, fabricators and other traders throughout the world.

Members of the London bullion market typically trade with each other and with their clients on a principal-to-principal basis, which means that all risks, including those of credit, are between the two counterparts to a transaction. This is known as an ‘Over the Counter’ (OTC) market, as opposed to an exchange traded environment.

The London bullion market is a wholesale market, where minimum traded amounts for clients are generally 1,000 ounces of gold and 50,000 ounces of silver.

Unlike a futures exchange – where trading is based around standard contract units, settlement dates and delivery specifications – the OTC market allows flexibility. It also provides confidentiality, as transactions are conducted between the two principals involved."

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,058
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:49pm Oct 2, 2013 12:49pm
Yes, it is and it isn't. It depends on the way one looks at it.

If we think of Gold in terms of sheer supply and demand, the demand, at this point, although it is not based solely in large cap specs, should outstrip the supply driving the price higher.

However, the only time we or "it" gets written about in terms of "being pushed around" or manipulated is when large cap specs, or hedge funds get involved.

Central banks buy and sell gold all the time, yet this is not constituted most of the time as "manipulation" when in fact, central banks, and the IMF, have more power over the market than a single hedge fund does. Not due to the monetary supply, due to the restrictions put on non Gubbermint funds, like GOLDman sachs.

If said fund wanted to purchase all the open long contracts on the comex for the front month, they could likely do so in money, yet, this is not allowed,
here is where the bullion market or OTC or Spot market comes in.

Quoting Zappa
{quote} This one's turning out good so far. To get in on the manipulation debate. I used to think it was obvious that manipulation was present. Now, not so much. The market is so perfect--all the time, and in virtually all markets--at going to where the stops should be, that I'm starting to believe it really just is supply and demand. George Soros said, and I paraphrase, "Traders always think there is somebody manipulating markets. They just can't believe it is supply and demand."
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,059
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:54pm Oct 2, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} This one's turning out good so far. To get in on the manipulation debate. I used to think it was obvious that manipulation was present. Now, not so much. The market is so perfect--all the time, and in virtually all markets--at going to where the stops should be, that I'm starting to believe it really just is supply and demand. George Soros said, and I paraphrase, "Traders always think there is somebody manipulating markets. They just can't believe it is supply and demand."
You realise that's coming from one of the few people who actually went to jail for insider trading and who's equally well known for manipulating the Pound to the point that he nearly broke the Bank of England, right?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #26,060
  • Oct 2, 2013 12:59pm Oct 2, 2013 12:59pm
Furthermore, Silver is wholeheartedly manipulated and has been for quite some time.

And yes, for the naysayers, look into the facts and you will find just as I had mentioned JPmorgan is the largest manipulator of silver price.
Why? They hold the largest net shorts.

When silver hit 50 not toooo long ago, it was brought right back down to surprisingly a price above appx 20 USD per ozt, NOT without dipping below said handle quite a few times.

If and when the time comes, and it will, that more people and investors, realize the potential in silver, other countries and large caps, begin to take delivery as the COMEX shrinks, there will be a blowout on JPM.

There is far more recycled and mined gold supply above ground than there is silver.


As silver gains more and more investment potential, DDay get's closer. If humans can split the atom and create controlled nuclear fission to make power, sometimes resulting in huge disasters - IE: FUKUSHIMA -

I am certain that the Industrial applications of Silver can be copied by an alloy of two or three metals.

Silver will likely outperform gold as a trade. Where we stand now you might not think so. Give it some more time and the investment demand for
"the poor man's gold" (when it is actually the smart man's gold) will come and outstrip supply driving prices well above 100 per ozt.
No this will not be tomorrow, by any means.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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