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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #26,021
  • Oct 2, 2013 8:31am Oct 2, 2013 8:31am
Quoting XTrade
Yes, his RSI analysis is great. It looks like they are just what I thought and he said, just trend lines on the RSI indicator. You cannot draw them on your software? {quote}

my window
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A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,022
  • Oct 2, 2013 8:42am Oct 2, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Mave
{quote} my window
Your RSI appears to be set at 2 which is far too reactive. Having played around with different settings, I find 14, the industry "default" setting works best.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #26,023
  • Oct 2, 2013 8:51am Oct 2, 2013 8:51am
Quoting KADC
{quote} Your RSI appears to be set at 2 which is far too reactive. Having played around with different settings, I find 14, the industry "default" setting works best.

oh yeah ! I saw the (2) on your chart and

Thanks
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,024
  • Oct 2, 2013 8:58am Oct 2, 2013 8:58am
I believe I called this last week, not trying to toot my own horn at all, just want people to be aware, the break of 80 is upon us.

Now, in the high .70's I would have expected this dip to give gold a bit more than +14 USD to the spot price, yet the day is still young.... and I suppose we were already in the low .80s before hand anyway so perhaps it is on par.

DXY plunge chart VVV
Attached Image
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,025
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:03am Oct 2, 2013 9:03am
Quoting Mave
{quote} http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1380709795 the trendline KADC was referring to in this post.. i dont know what it is but has relevance ! since you are here.. lemme ask you.. in the chart GqOrlando ● had posted showing the relation between DXY and Gold prices, there was a possible buy/sell signal when the prices cross.. what do you think?

It's tough to say. KADC, SunTrader and Myself have posted slews of these correlation studies and in the long term ( say 10 years) the price action does appear to be inverse.

Yet it is NOT always the case that the two GOLD (AU) and the USD are inverse.

So, in essence sure you could divulge a system using the correlation to take trades, yet you would need to study at least a few days or weeks of price action (depending on time frame of trade)
and correlation to see basically what degree the two are inverse if you were to use it to short one and long the other.

But, in retrospect, If you just analyze them loosely and see that the correlation has been either inverse or converse and simply - if inverse - short the USD when in other pairs while going Long XAU/USD, which essentially you are already shorting the USD.

I like to use USD/CHF when shorting Greenbacks because It usually respects support and resistance (major levels) and almost mirrors the USDX.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,026
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:10am Oct 2, 2013 9:10am
Quoting GqOrlando
166k down to 159k revised for employment change expected was 180 from 159k last month. finally
Keep in mind the government report on Friday probably won't be released ......... on Friday.

Thanks to gubmint shutdown.
  • #26,027
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:13am Oct 2, 2013 9:13am
Gold seems to be in path to take out the first minor potential resistance area where it is now @1307/08

Next it needs to clear 1315.

Yet, in the larger picture, it really needs to clear and sustain 1350 / 1360 and 1375 in an attempt to retake 1400 to switch the chart bias and midterm bearish
trend to bullish.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,028
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:16am Oct 2, 2013 9:16am
Might have been incorrect when I said a day or two ago that the first fib zone (1288-1269) might not be the bottom of wave 5 of Wave 1 or A. It appears it is:
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  • #26,029
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:21am Oct 2, 2013 9:21am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Keep in mind the government report on Friday probably won't be released ......... on Friday. Thanks to gubmint shutdown.

yeah I know, thanks for the heads up. This is the accelerator I was waiting for to play this harm cycle
http://prntscr.com/1ut24w
  • #26,030
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:27am Oct 2, 2013 9:27am
Quoting GqOrlando
{quote} yeah I know, thanks for the heads up. This is the accelerator I was waiting for to play this harm cycle http://prntscr.com/1ut24w
Greek to me.
  • #26,031
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:41am Oct 2, 2013 9:41am
Gold and Silver moving along nicely, on the way to erasing yesterday's LOSS... (correction)

Let's see if they can pull it off!!!! Not even 11 AM - EST yet.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #26,032
  • Edited 10:25am Oct 2, 2013 9:42am | Edited 10:25am
Silver has broken through the bottom of its prior consolidation zone. Breaking above upper resistance at ~$20.50 would be a strong indicator of reversal of trend. Gold has further to go with bottom of its consolidation channel being around $1,330 and a break above $1,350 being necessary to confirm reversal of trend, but daily RSI has now broken resistance (needs to be confirmed by tomorrow's candle) so I would keep a close eye on any shorts from wherever gold stops today.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #26,033
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:49am Oct 2, 2013 9:49am
Quoting hbkarakas
Hi all, prices just touched my descending middle trend line, and i bought same lots to lock my pips.. What are your comments for the next moves ? 1.305 is the first resistance i guess and second one is 1.320 area. If bulls have the power to push it up... I dont wait anymore way to south before some retracement to north... {image}

I am really happy to see that !

Let's see if 1320 resistance works .. ?

1320-2 area is also 764 fibo level..
  • #26,034
  • Oct 2, 2013 9:50am Oct 2, 2013 9:50am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} It's tough to say. KADC, SunTrader and Myself have posted slews of these correlation studies and in the long term ( say 10 years) the price action does appear to be inverse. Yet it is NOT always the case that the two GOLD (AU) and the USD are inverse. So, in essence sure you could divulge a system using the correlation to take trades, yet you would need to study at least a few days or weeks of price action (depending on time frame of trade) and correlation to see basically what degree the two are inverse if you were to use it to short one...

Okay. Got your point that its not that simple and i'd like to study the correlation because the cross defines the long term in the small time period that is in the image and lot of interesting things I would like to study. So, how do i get both charts on the same graph?
USD/CHF because CHF is very stable?

in the meantime GOLD takes out 1305, 1312 (close before the FOMC announcement) , lingering around 1219.. next levels 1226 and 1234..
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A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,035
  • Oct 2, 2013 10:05am Oct 2, 2013 10:05am
How much does it look silly guys ?

1250 area?
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  • #26,036
  • Oct 2, 2013 10:08am Oct 2, 2013 10:08am
Quoting hbkarakas
How much does it look silly guys ? 1250 area? {image}

a lot but ben speaks today so ...
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,037
  • Oct 2, 2013 10:14am Oct 2, 2013 10:14am
Quoting GqOrlando
{quote} yeah I know, thanks for the heads up. This is the accelerator I was waiting for to play this harm cycle http://prntscr.com/1ut24w

Are we talking a breakout from the channel ?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #26,038
  • Oct 2, 2013 10:30am Oct 2, 2013 10:30am
My last view on gold market
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More on my Blog...
  • #26,039
  • Oct 2, 2013 10:48am Oct 2, 2013 10:48am
Quoting mv6
My last view on gold market {image}
That chart is even less useful now than it was two weeks ago. Respect here is earned on the merit of your posts not the success of blind calls.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #26,040
  • Oct 2, 2013 10:56am Oct 2, 2013 10:56am
silver solid resistance at 22ish... let see if it can take out the resistance.. 22.50 might be the target... fibs also acting as a good support already cover yesterday losses
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Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
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