XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Breakout ? or still intact?

Yeah! It's still just really a potential pattern but it has some pretty great characteristics shaping up.

I'm definitely leaning towards the potential scenario #2.

This move was really needed today, too much more time sideways and it would become invalid.

If this rally gets some real legs, the move up could begin to resemble the downward spike in April that created a further bearish period.

If the neck breaks which just at a glance now should be around 1415/20 we should be in for a nice ride up.

I'll have to make a new chart, keep in mind I'm posting it using the daily because it is a bit more clear but it has taken months to form.
so it could easily take a month or two to complete....

Weekly . Daily . 4h charts
shows a very good point
i think a break above 1375 will make the gold shine :-)

Too soon to tell, need to see how the rest of the week goes and closes out.

It managed to blow thru the 50 and 100 DMAs and I think the 100 is resting on or around 1350 right now, so if the area will offer support it should continue,
if 1350 and 1330 areas go, then we likely will go sideways to down.

But as someone mentioned in a prior post I'm not taking the short, when I saw that first 10 buck jump I took the risk before the fed and jumped in. Going to see how this one pans out.

It really needs to take out the line in this H4 chart. On can cut the top off one of the high points and the price is technically above the line, without the cut it is below.

This is what I mean, in pink, you can see when the price just hit it so far it's staying above.

Thanks xtrade, input is always helpful

Well we've closed above 1350 and seeing some week movement at the end of the day. Now looking for 1400 with possibly break of 1415/20. Well that's me done for today. See you at London open happy trading

ttayko to be fair you ban is lifted. so you can post again if you want to.

I noticed you have me on ignore so you will likely not see this. but the option is yours if you want it.

short from here,
volatility gone.

a slide from here is obvious,
XAG/USD only for now

(TP1: ~22.42)

TP2: ~21.90 (being conservative, FOMC action / PA seemed too extreme. reaction could lead XAG lower)

It's unfortunate that I exited all my Forex trades but better safe than sorry. Silver not falling further doesn't surprise me but a bit more of a drop in gold before the rise would have been technically constructive. RSI will be useless in all but the shortest and longest time frames so there's nothing to do now but wait and see where the markets level out at in a day or so.

I'm a bit disgusted with all the "Ben goes against consensus" articles trying to save face for their lazy reporting. Where did they derive this consensus? All news sources reprinted Goldman Sachs' nearly perfect record of making an obviously false claim without critiquing either their success rate or the glaring holes in their logic then wrote their own articles based on Goldman Sachs' propaganda then took polls from those who joined them in drinking their own Kool-Aid.

It's easy to be mislead when you're bombarded from all sides by the same opinion, but common sense after taking a casual look at the state of the US economy was against tapering off on easing. Even that comic team from Australia that I posted the video from a few days ago knew it wasn't going to happen. The Bloomberg article that came out last night with the "revised consensus" of $5B reduction in treasury purchases as a token gesture to prove that FED has faith in their nonsensical bullish long-term forecast and that they have the will to end easing at some point in the future at least took the reality of the current economic situation into consideration, but that's the sort of article that should have been out from the beginning.

That there was so much uncertainty that the markets came to a complete halt for hours before the FOMC minutes were released demonstrates how dependant the institutional traders are on inside information before they're willing to risk so much as a single penny. Even so, surely the banks knew that there was no way the FED would further destabilize an unstable market, not to mention that a central bank controlled by Goldman Sachs for 30 years was hardly going to stop giving free money to the banks. Where that the case they'd have recommended the government put the stimulus into building infrastructure where it would actually benefit the economy right from the get-go.

Anyway, that's all done with now. Those of you who stayed long, congratulations and lock in your profits. This move up was from the confirmation of the continuation of a pre-existing fundamental, not the implementation of a new one. If it weren't for the hours of dead calm prior to the FOMC minutes release I'd have more confidence that there will be a pull-back, but if the markets were so genuinely clueless there could very well be follow through in the Asian and European sessions. Regardless, it's always better to enter from a pull-back and I certainly don't buy when hourly RSI is at 80 so I will be waiting to see what happens.

Weekly RSI for gold is still under 50 which is technically bearish and has yet to hit resistance. Price has re-entered the descending bear channel which I'm tempted to refer to it as a descending resistance zone. Gold won't be truly bullish relative to this time frame until it breaks above the upper resistance line.




Daily RSI broke fractal resistance and is sitting at the pivot line at ~50, but a move down tomorrow would return it to bearish territory. Similarly, price is sitting just above the rising support line and needs to stay above it to maintain bullish momentum. Direction will certainly be clearer by Monday if there fails to be either a pull-back or follow through tonight.

I agree on your weekly analysis,
daily doesn't mean much to me these days, because the gold is "inbetween"...

Now I trade on shorter TF, news retrace / momentum scalps. (failed considerably today trying to scalp XAG, spreads were unbearable)

I will buy +10 lots if XAU goes all the way down to 1180-1220. (around ~1240, neckline)

its a really bad Morning for me B cz in gold trade i lost 700$ :'(

can we see the price above 1380 today ??

I really think it's going to break $1380 tonight and if the news tomorrow for Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless claims is higher than last month then be ready because it's going to go through $1400 very easily and it's going to test resistance at $1425 .... and if that breaks, $$$

"today" meaning what? Go by sessions here because it is we are scattered all over the globe. I am in NY.

My favorite trading sessions are

LondoNYC- or the London CROSS with NY so 8am - 12pm EST
secondly AusAsian or the Aussie Asia CROSS.

What session is "morning" for you?

NP & Yes next real resistance target is appx 1425 it's on the last chart I posted along with 1350 zone and lower the would be bearish target and support zone below a fail of 1300/10 area which resides appx 1275,
notice the larger S/R areas of interest are basically 75 USD apart.

1275+75= 1350 + 75 = 1425

I'm not just making these numbers up, the zones are clearly visible areas of interest on the h4/daily/weekly

me too (LondoNYC)
Today mean 19-9-2013 During All Sessions

sorry to hear that, since you have been so bold to share such a loss, would you mind telling us the trade parameters?

I respect your honesty. IF you don't want to share them I COMPLETELY understand, and there is no pressure.

If I may take a stab it sounds like you were on with to many lots or too much leverage short ahead of the FOMC, expected either failure or retracement.

I won't be surprised to see some pullback, yet I think the writing is on the wall now, especially concerning FX majors / minors.

a 60+ usd move is a good day, and like I mention it is always the stairs up and the elevator down. So in essence this was a few flights up on the elevator today.