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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #25,341
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:40pm Sep 17, 2013 8:40pm
It seems that the link in POST ONE is faulty to this, EXTREMELY LONG - No Pun intended, Post. Thus,
I am quoting it for anyone who wants to read and re-linking to post ONE.

It is about the price chronology of gold with fundamentals and techs to find a decisive fair price for today 09/17/13 and for those across the pond 17/09/13

Quoting XTrade
{quote} Basically what I wanted to add was this: For many years, the price of gold was basically stagnant and the yellow metal was really just seen as, a hedge (mainly from the USD, yet other majors and minors like U/Cad, Aussie (especially due to their large production output) maybe kiwi on occasion... Yet FX was not nearly as accessible a market EVEN for institutional trader's / hedger's / investors.... For example, before the Euro say you were a car importer specializing in German Autos, so your buys maybe are a couple Porches a bunch of Mercedes...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,342
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:41pm Sep 17, 2013 8:41pm
Quoting XTrade
He doesn't respond straight away --- give him till' tomorrow or consider it I suppose moot....
I answered above.

Posts crossed.
  • #25,343
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:57pm Sep 17, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting SunTrader
Hate to bring up ancient history from the bull market from long ago, but anyone see manipulation in this chart? {image}
OK so here to me, you are suggesting UPPER PRICE manipulation,

Yet how in your Bear view do you explain to me properly TWO / 3 NOW NOTED in this thread,
Parabolic movements in GOLD either 20x or 7.68x the value and

SUPPRESSION over a 20 year period! No wonder Gold went to 1920,
once the banksters, the SUPER RICH and the hedge funds, got in as LARGE CAP specs, it broke the seal,

There is an underlying lie here.. I think you agree with this point.

What do you really think would happen if the net longs and net naked shorts on COMEX had a massive "TAKING DELIVERY" FUED.
who would win?

But now you will say I am defensive, YET all I am TRYING TO DO is educate noobs that want to trade GOLD/SILVER and have "brainy / speculative" discussions with highly vouched traders.

BTW. KADC thanks for all your work, if I could double vouch you I would.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,344
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:02pm Sep 17, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} He doesn't respond straight away --- give him till' tomorrow or consider it I suppose moot. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Although I would like a response as I tend to agree that 1275 is STRONG support and any retest of 1180 "reaction low" with truer support at 1200 will certainly be rejected. EVEN IN SUCH CASE that we make a new REACTION LOW, like 1150 or lower, it doesn't take long for a daily bar to pin, besides patience. . . It doesn't...
Thanks Xtrade, I appreciate other views. I am also saying that now 1200 is very unlikely as that level implies that participants are selling their whole lots of gold which is inconceivable in this particular time of the year as gold is needed for hedging risk until December at least. 1200 is the avarage cost to produce one ounce of gold, so only those who don't deal with the real asset (but use paper gold) may try to sell it for less than 1200 but they will be all stopped at one point as they will be unable to fulfil all contracts i.e. selling Ferraris as if they were Smart cars. Hence 1250-75 will be a very strong support.
  • #25,345
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:17pm Sep 17, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} OK so here to me, you are suggesting UPPER PRICE manipulation, Yet how in your Bear view do you explain to me properly TWO / 3 NOW NOTED in this thread, Parabolic movements in GOLD either 20x or 7.68x the value and SUPPRESSION over a 20 year period! No wonder Gold went to 1920, once the banksters, the SUPER RICH and the hedge funds, got in as LARGE CAP specs, it broke the seal, There is an underlying lie here.. I think you agree with this point. What do you really think would happen if the net longs and net naked shorts on COMEX had a massive...
Have it your way. It is your thread.

My own opinion, which you know I am not bashful in giving, is that maaanipulation talk is a total freakin' waste of time.

Most especially to novice beginners.

They need to learn fundamentals and/or technicals.

My question, as it has always been as far as manipulation, is why it is never talked about when price goes up.

The reason is most traders only think long and believe that is where price should be and therefore is a big reason why most lose worrying about things they have no control of.

As far as Comex and short squeezes. The house always wins.

I'm happy to make me little chump change at the end of the day.

And let the gold bloggers write what they write. That is how they make theirs.
  • #25,346
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:19pm Sep 17, 2013 9:19pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} Thanks Xtrade, I appreciate other views. I am also saying that now 1200 is very unlikely as that level implies that participants are selling their whole lots of gold which is inconceivable in this particular time of the year as gold is needed for hedging risk until December at least. 1200 is the avarage cost to produce one ounce of gold, so only those who don't deal with the real asset (but use paper gold) may try to sell it for less than 1200 but they will be all stopped at one point as they will be unable to fulfil all contracts i.e. selling...
I have position sell at 1315 and 1300..
I think gold before FOMC will keep down because no news for gold to up.. My target at 1280.xx..

If i see,sentiment in gold market many people want see gold down before up..
I read quotes and article from xtrade too.

Oyeah how about your prediction about tappering??
My prediction not tappering.. Because target of inflation and unemployment not achieve targeted by the FED.. and have high risk if tappering..
Thats my prediction.. But many rumors FED will tappering @@

If FED tappering me add open position for sell gold
  • #25,347
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:22pm Sep 17, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting cg uno
{quote} for non Americans, what is a semester? thanks
Not us either. We Americans use that expression with schools only. As far as I know anyway.
  • #25,348
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:39pm Sep 17, 2013 9:39pm
Very much like the "foreign car" part, but, also in agreement, as to the paper or "synthetic gold" market.
I have researched this for YEARS and it ALWAYS fails me to make a reasonable explanation.

There are downloadable supposed "bar chart stamp/ lot #charts" as to the GLD which I have reviewed and COMEX - supposed inventory.
After analyzation the conclusion I have come to is that the THEY JUST DON"T ADD UP!

Even at market lows GOLD demand, is outlying current supply.


Quoting Greener
{quote} Thanks Xtrade, I appreciate other views. I am also saying that now 1200 is very unlikely as that level implies that participants are selling their whole lots of gold which is inconceivable in this particular time of the year as gold is needed for hedging risk until December at least. 1200 is the avarage cost to produce one ounce of gold, so only those who don't deal with the real asset (but use paper gold) may try to sell it for less than 1200 but they will be all stopped at one point as they will be unable to fulfil all contracts i.e. selling...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,349
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:45pm Sep 17, 2013 9:45pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Not us either. We Americans use that expression with schools only. As far as I know anyway.
Correct and a "semester" is not 6 months.

College works as this if they offer EVERYTHING time wise which they ALL DO NOT.

Fall Semester, SPRING BREAK / Summer Semester if they have it / Spring semester / winter semester if they have it.

Main two are SPRING/ FALL for only appx 3 months at a clip.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,350
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:03pm Sep 17, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Correct and a "semester" is not 6 months. College works as this if they offer EVERYTHING time wise which they ALL DO NOT. Fall Semester, SPRING BREAK / Summer Semester if they have it / Spring semester / winter semester if they have it. Main two are SPRING/ FALL for only appx 3 months at a clip.
Thank you for all explanations. I will check your charts and Comex. Thank you for that. Semester is actually from Latin (semestris) and means exactly six months (I studied Latin for 5 years). It's used in schools but not only. Ok next time I will avoid Latin, I will try ancient Greek perhaps.
  • #25,351
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:33pm Sep 17, 2013 10:33pm
Gold made a matching move down in the hourly charts. Fibonacci confluence is the next target down at $1,283 before my bottom target in the $1,275 area. I'm exiting all my shorts at $1,277.50 and will wait for confirmation of break or support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Silver is sitting on a support box. A break of the top targets ~$20.50 which is roughly the next Fibonacci down. As I do not scalp silver, sitting in the midpoint of a bear and bull channel on the daily chart is not a place from where I'd like to enter a position without confirmation that the top support has been broken with accompanying momentum to carry it to the bottom.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,352
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:57pm Sep 17, 2013 11:57pm
To the gentlemen arguing bull/bear semantics: Bias, like fundamentals, is largely academic. Discussions of manipulation are also academic, but I think there's room for both academic and technical discussions here provided we all remember to respect other people's opinions and not get personal. Do not misconstrue someone disagreeing with your position as a personal attack, and even when there is no other way to interpret a post, be the better man and respond as if offence wasn't intended or ignore said post entirely.

As a rule of thumb, may I respectfully suggest that a chart and/or an article to support your supposition is probably a sufficient response to any individual post, and similarly, if you don't have anything constructive to add there is no need to respond, particularly when you have already posted your opinion.

Personally, I think it's just as beneficial, albeit not necessarily profitable, to discuss what will happen when the supplies that back paper transactions are revealed to be fraudulent as it is to discuss technical levels. Will spot prices soar because actual supply is a fraction of what it is supposed to be while commodity prices simultaneously plummet because confidence is eroded?

As far as actual trading is concerned, ignore the academic discussions and remember to buy at support and sell upon confirmation of breach of support (even breakaway strategies require confirmation) and vice versa for resistance and you're more likely to be profitable than not.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #25,353
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:58pm Sep 17, 2013 11:58pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} gold touched 1180 at the end of first semester 2013. You need an end of a year or a semester to touch those levels. At this point time whoever owns gold i.e. asset management companies, financial institutions etc. will keep it until the end of the year as a means to hedge risk. 1250-75 is the lowest that I can see at this point. 1300 support should hold strong. The cost to produce one ounce of gold equals to 1200 so selling it at 1180 is not a great deal unless you need to sell a great quantity quickly. This can only happen at the end of...
Said it right!
Per aspera ad astra
  • #25,354
  • Edited 2:12am Sep 18, 2013 12:44am | Edited 2:12am
Quoting Greener
{quote} Thank you for all explanations. I will check your charts and Comex. Thank you for that. Semester is actually from Latin (semestris) and means exactly six months (I studied Latin for 5 years). It's used in schools but not only. Ok next time I will avoid Latin, I will try ancient Greek perhaps.

Well, this is just here in the US, feel free to use Latin of any relation to Ancient Rome or Preferred by just me Greek Mythology and Gods.
I have studied both, but find the Greek Myths, tragedies, the rare Satyr, very much related to GLOBAL beliefs, or RATHER, real life scenarios,
although dramatic, the points addressed are not only historic but classic and tune into real life to this day.

Yes, COLLEGE of I would imagine in Latin something like collegitcus is usually broken in the two normal semesters Fall and Spring depending on school and programme both about 3/4 months, with a winter and summer and spring break.

I have been out of college for many years now, so if there is a youngster, who would like to add to the day to day or rather month to month aspects of a semester, please do so! We could just internet search it, yet that's not going to be much fun now is it!

FOMC tomorrow will be fun.!!!

IF anyone want's to HEDGE please try to do a MORE REAL TYPE OF HEDGE IE:
USD/CHF SELL would mean you are buying CHF and SELLING USD - Long obviously means buying the base so LONG USD / SHORT CHF.
SO instead of Going Long and short or short and long the BUCK against GOLD, if you need to try and hedge use a Pair that closely follows the movement of the
USDX - IMO Swissy is No. 1 - Perhaps U/J is No 2- Yet Both are semi safe haven bets, if you want to attach more risk,
If you are going LONG GOLD and want a potential riskier Hedge, try selling Kiwi, Aussie or Cable, These are very tough trades though and I don't suggest managing
them to any budding gold trader,

You are better off just using Swissy as it is the Closest to the USDX rise and fall, the BOJ constantly intervenes and announces it usually. Being the neutrality of the Swiss GVMT, the currency is not only a safe haven for large cap investors, yet, other "Darker side" large cap investors, the "stereotypical" "Swiss or Caribbean / off shore account where the super rich hide money from taxes in the US" not like i'm turning over stones here...

So Short Gold/USD hedge could b buying U/CHF thus you are SHORT GOLD AND LONG USD -yet only against CHF not GOLD- See where there is more potential?
Long Gold/USD Hedge could be selling USD/CHF. SO you are Long Gold while shorting USD only against CHF. = LONG CHF short USD & Long Gold.
Just simple alternatives to trying to buy and sell the same pair, not only do MOST ESPECIALLY MT4 brokers, rip you off drastically for doing so,
which when I called three of them I got a long, drawn out "LEGALIZE" response that made absolutely NO SENSE,

Not only do you pay the spread twice yet, while you think you are "Hedging" your trade by a term called a STRADDLE in OPTIONS / Futures,
Anyone using an MT4 or other certain brokers solely does not have the ability to "hedge" by buying spot and selling futures or vice versa.
This is why I am trying to explain what your truer options are, because these terms stem from "options" / futures trading as is and this is a mostly
"spot" discussion I think it is important that the newbies learn what the "deal is." and it's a rough one when trying to sell and buy the same pair at the same
time, almost always, and surely, you lock in a loss, don't believe me call your broker and ask them how your "same pair hedging" works and for a list of
the profit, loss, entries and exits, of the said trades, which you should have written down in a book. I guarantee, you will never use this "strategy" again with a
retail forex broker - even if you are trading @ 100:1 leverage, which no noob should be. Most institutions top out @ 50:1 leverage, +25:1 leverage. It saves your money. Brokers, make money on foolish investors that think this is a casino or a get rich quick game, when every institutional FX TRADER, I have ever met,
some with 15 years say, "This market blows my mind on a weekly if not daily basis, I do my best, but I am still learning, Luckily the money I trade is not mine."

If you don't know what a STRADDLE OR STRANGLE IS I Strongly suggest you read these links I am posting before you "think" you are "hedging."
but you are also LOCKING IN A DEFINITE LOSS, yes, the price that you ie: "Buy/Sell" at and the difference already less the spread is usually by most MT4 brokers especially already locked in as a LOSS Unless you can Actually "HEDGE in the same TICK or Minute, Which YOU CANNOT, thus you are locking in more of a loss,
every time you try to "HEDGE"

EDIT: CONFUSION OF POST ATTEMPTED TO BE AMENDED AND MADE MORE SIMPLE TO UNDERSTAND!!!! YIKES!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,355
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:03am Sep 18, 2013 1:03am
Well, in terms of great posts I think you have hit the trifecta (in FX hours) or the hat trick in (Ice Hockey terms) in the last 24 hrs.
This is an eloquently phrased post and I could not agree more. You are not providing any bias towards any side just simply stating how things should be
done around this part of town.

I bolded some great words here yet I think it will still cut my quoting short so I stopped, In any case the post is on this page as of yet.

Quoting KADC
To the gentlemen arguing bull/bear semantics: Bias, like fundamentals, is largely academic. Discussions of manipulation are also academic, ----- remember to respect other people's opinions -not get personal. Do not misconstrue someone disagreeing with your position as a personal attack, --no other way to interpret a post, [b]be the better man and respond as if offence wasn't intended or ignore said post entirely. As a rule of thumb, may I respectfully suggest that a chart and/or an article to support your supposition is probably...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,356
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:19am Sep 18, 2013 1:19am
In agreement, yet RSI levels would suggest a flip in price "soon" as I think you are looking at.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are already low, I can deal with a test of 1180 if necessary and my only trigger for a short would be a rejection on a breach of 1275 on retest of said breach.
Yet, what do I get out of this less than a 100 USD move and a far more risky trade than a nice long on tested support.
So it's not my favorite option, yet if necessary it will be explored.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After all the years I have spent, watching dailies, weeklies and yearlies, - buying / selling physical metal, then trading synthetic metal and learning FX,
I have to say, I have learned patience as one of the best tools in my belt, although it had to be RE-LEARNED, after the initial RUSH if you will of live trading FX,
Sometimes, the hard way is the ONLY way.
Yet, I also learned had to re - learn a simple acronym in design KISS. Keep it Simple Stupid!
I like some indicators and love the basics, S/R, P/A, T/Ls, and SMAs. Yet I don't even need to flood my charts with all of them at once! I think I have used or tried EVERY indicator of popularity and on MT4 + and come to the conclusion that they all signal after the fact. Price Action to me and SOME, not all, candlestick analysis is useful, I love a great chart pattern, fibos are great at times to reinforce my own S/R levels set forth but I have to say at this point, Most of the ten year is already
in memory just from the sheer time spent watching years go by, planning trades, and taking profits.
Plan your Work and Work your Plan!


XT-

Quoting KADC
Gold made a matching move down in the hourly charts. Fibonacci confluence is the next target down at $1,283 before my bottom target in the $1,275 area. I'm exiting all my shorts at $1,277.50 and will wait for confirmation of break or support. {image} Silver is sitting on a support box. A break of the top targets ~$20.50 which is roughly the next Fibonacci down. As I do not scalp silver, sitting in the midpoint of a bear and bull channel on the daily chart is not a place from where I'd like to enter a position without confirmation that the top support...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,357
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:42am Sep 18, 2013 1:42am
Getting at bit low here ahead of FOMC. But looks like a small bounce starting.....

I could go either way here prior yet I will wait for the first BOUNCE if and when it comes tomorrow,
If not, and 1300 or sub 1300 looks healthy as support especially 1275 I will be in for a ride up.
As aforementioned, should 1300/further rejection at say 1280 occur, a short will likely be taken to see,
if, there is even a possibility of retesting 1180/1150. I don't see a C-Note falling off in a days time, especially with the
clear distress the USD is under, so 1050 is out of the question for me right now and would ONLY be suggested as of late on a
strong breach of 1100. Likewise, I really don't in the most BEARISH Scenario see 1k BREAKING and being sustained.
Just the opinion of the OP.
ThX.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,358
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:22am Sep 18, 2013 2:22am
Quoting Scalptastic
Medium term : Blue support zone remains key level for gold If we break through it then I think we will go lower than previous low. Short term watching price action on 1310-1305 zone. {image}

Took a small long position from 1292. Stop loss is 1285 (trailing it higher). My first target is 1.3320.
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  • #25,359
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:00am Sep 18, 2013 5:00am
hourly snap shot
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  • #25,360
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:54am Sep 18, 2013 5:54am
To help keep you occupied instead of gambling on the FOMC outcome, watch Mike Maloney examine the Shiller Housing Index measured in gold, the DOW measured in gold, and the gold/silver ratio to determine where in the price cycle we are. His presentation (part 1 of 6) is rather slow at getting to the point so, spoiler alert, he believes we're near enough to the bottom of the pull-back to buy physical gold and silver and that there is significant upside. This will not be interesting or informative to those who are only interested in trading.

Also, here is an article he wrote about how the Hunt brothers (who at one time owned more than half the total global silver supply) caused the cap and subsequent crash in the silver market.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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