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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #25,241
  • Edited 10:32pm Sep 13, 2013 10:22pm | Edited 10:32pm
Quoting XTrade
Finally we have broken the the past weeks range!!! We have now broken the upper trendline of the downward channel present on XAU/USD daily chart. Returned risk appetite and Euro (although trapped in range) recovery from sub .3000 have helped add to the flame! Taken a few days off XAU while focusing on cable besides one long TP hit. Now, with some ease on Cable on Fibre I will be watching this area closely and looking to get long on pullback. Or just hop on and ride. If breakout sustains I will look to target 1150/60 area next Currently we are paused...

This is what and how Gold reacted the last time it made a new ALL TIME HIGH... I even pulled the chart for you all.

Notice the Low of lows is sub 1000 and the high is +1200s.

So I ask anyone who throws out a call like: these are just a few.
@ 1425 "gold will hit 1100 tomorrow"
@ 1050 "we are going to 400 within the next sessions" Then we hit 1900+ lol.
@ 1380 recently "we will see sub 800 soon" ok well hows that working so far?
@ 1900 "we will see sub 1050 soon" - never happened. Not even sub 1100 yet.

BTW: anything sub 1050 is a buy hand over fist. Learn how to trade the weekly,
and yes "ST" their are people that trade the weekly that are not "investors"

In a matter of a SLOW (10 years) time in the scheme of financial instruments Gold has over x 5d itself in value PLUS, before pullback,
has the DOW or THe S&P or the USDX or any market besides silver done so?

NO. The answer remains NO. And it doesn't matter if you are a trader or an investor, you need to be savvy and pinch pennies when they need to be,
the rich don't get richer by spending all their money every day, they hoard it. Reinvest it, and prosper, then clench their fists.
You don't need to be rich to be a good or great trader.
Just need to know yourself and how to identify movements that will make YOU profit in a timely and special manner.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,242
  • Sep 13, 2013 11:27pm Sep 13, 2013 11:27pm
Somewhat of a bullish hammer or HIGH spinning top on the daily close....
Below the UTL and Below the DMAS...

Gold has some ground to make up next week. Otherwise we will likely test 1300 and on breach the next trade is to 1275.

On the upside we want to test 1350 and retake it and at least one of the DMAs before re-entering the H4 channel.

Perhaps the H4 channel was a bit too steep for the Daily and thus, correction noted, yet, all is not awry yet.

Much more chart damage will need to be inflicted before a question of 1100s.

Two Red Cents.
when they were actually 90% copper! LOL.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,243
  • Sep 14, 2013 5:51am Sep 14, 2013 5:51am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Why is your chart going positive as the price is "suggested" by you to drop further by your lines????
it is an inverted scale
but donīt take this chart too serious. Itīs just a possibility based on bollinger bounce.
just do it
  • #25,244
  • Sep 14, 2013 5:53am Sep 14, 2013 5:53am
Quoting XTrade
Somewhat of a bullish hammer or HIGH spinning top on the daily close.... Below the UTL and Below the DMAS... Gold has some ground to make up next week. Otherwise we will likely test 1300 and on breach the next trade is to 1275. On the upside we want to test 1350 and retake it and at least one of the DMAs before re-entering the H4 channel. Perhaps the H4 channel was a bit too steep for the Daily and thus, correction noted, yet, all is not awry yet. Much more chart damage will need to be inflicted before a question of 1100s. Two Red Cents. when they...
I am sorry for posting this br0ker related question.

I scalp gold on a 1 minute chart using Bob Volman's set-ups.

The br0ker I use has a really good spread of 20 points (2 pips), however they have atrocious slippage (on StopLoss only of course!).

Can anyone please recommend a br0ker with similar spread but better habits.

You can PM me if you like.
  • #25,245
  • Sep 14, 2013 6:21am Sep 14, 2013 6:21am
Quoting XTrade
..... watch out bears, you didn't break 1310 or 1300 or 1275 yet so...
No but 1343 was broken cleanly, i.e. closed below, and that was the big one for me. Confirms to me that correction is over (see chart).

1310 was broken, if you hadn't noticed Friday's intraday low was 1305, but closing prices are what matter most so it hasn't as yet closed below that number. 1300 as far as I can see is just a BRN and I don't give them much thought. Is there some previous S/R level there that I am missing though besides the retailers watching it?

1275 is an important swing low but if I am right that correction is over this level and 1181 will give - just a matter of time.

A good chance will get an indication one way or the other after FOMC this week coming up.
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  • #25,246
  • Sep 14, 2013 6:27am Sep 14, 2013 6:27am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} No but 1343 was broken cleanly, i.e. closed below, and that was the big one for me. Confirms to me that correction is over (see chart). 1310 was broken, if you hadn't noticed Friday's intraday low was 1305, but closing prices are what matter most so it hasn't as yet closed below that number. 1300 as far as I can see is just a BRN and I don't give them much thought. Is there some previous S/R level there that I am missing though besides the retailers watching it? 1275 is an important swing low but if I am right that correction is over this...

Hi SunTrader,

I like your chart, it reminds me of mine. Some areas of interest for bounce.

Scott
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,247
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:21am Sep 14, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi SunTrader, I like your chart, it reminds me of mine. Some areas of interest for bounce. Scott {image}
Kinda except about the only thing I see that is similar is the amount of bars shown.

RSI vs Stoch, bars vs candles, a couple of fibs vs tons of them, EW counts vs crab or bat or gartley or whatever that is considered.

But yeah other than that looks the same.

Though you and others might be looking for a bounce area to go long I would be watching those areas to go short once bounce completes.
  • #25,248
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:26am Sep 14, 2013 7:26am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Kinda except about the only thing I see that is similar is the amount of bars shown. RSI vs Stoch, bars vs candles, a couple of fibs vs tons of them, EW counts vs crab or bat or gartley or whatever that is considered. But yeah other than that looks the same. Though you and others might be looking for a bounce area to go long I would be watching those areas to go short once bounce completes.
Sorry was not clear. Posted bounce levels, other chart is same. (not posted) Looking for short.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,249
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:47am Sep 14, 2013 7:47am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Kinda except about the only thing I see that is similar is the amount of bars shown. RSI vs Stoch, bars vs candles, a couple of fibs vs tons of them, EW counts vs crab or bat or gartley or whatever that is considered. But yeah other than that looks the same. Though you and others might be looking for a bounce area to go long I would be watching those areas to go short once bounce completes.
Yes, gold has a downside bias, as of late, YET, the possibility to ride a long for a longer and more profitable trade than a perfectly timed in and out short remains to the upside.

The yellow metal may not have attracted much of the "risk" appetite as it did on the way to 1900, yet this was never it's vehicle to begin with.
Just an added bonus.

I don't waver to heavily on either side for mid term,
Long term it is clear the chart remains bullish.
Short term, changes every day,
Mid term we are looking a bit south, with potential for reversal at a discount or a test of low enough support.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,250
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:48am Sep 14, 2013 7:48am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Sorry was not clear. Posted bounce levels, other chart is same. (not posted) Looking for short.
Ok, that's different.
  • #25,251
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:58am Sep 14, 2013 7:58am
Quoting XTrade
Yes, gold has a downside bias, as of late, YET, the possibility to ride a long for a longer and more profitable trade than a perfectly timed in and out short remains to the upside.....
A couple of weeks ago I posted a series of spread charts XAU/DXY, XAU/SPX, XAU/XAG and even I think London PM daily fix for dollar, euro and pound.

They had trendlines on price and spread indicator. Showing trend and then a reversal off June 28th lows. since then all trendlines have been broken the last few days into the other (previous) direction. That along with EW count gives me the confidence in saying I believe new lows are ahead. As always I can be wrong.
  • #25,252
  • Edited 8:29am Sep 14, 2013 8:00am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} No but 1343 was broken cleanly, i.e. closed below, and that was the big one for me. Confirms to me that correction is over (see chart). 1310 was broken, if you hadn't noticed Friday's intraday low was 1305, but closing prices are what matter most so it hasn't as yet closed below that number. 1300 as far as I can see is just a BRN and I don't give them much thought. Is there some previous S/R level there that I am missing though besides the retailers watching it? 1275 is an important swing low but if I am right that correction is over this...
Yes, agreed here.

no I don't pay much mind to reaction lows or highs and often like to view gold as a LINE chart. I should start posting those again.
This way we can clearly see areas of interest for support, resistance, stops and price action.

1300 is purely psych just as most if not all of the other BRNs. Precisely why the price usually stops 10 to 20 USD below one of them ie: 1200 = 1180 support.

1275 is huge potential support. I wouldn't underestimate it.

However if you seem as certain as you are, why not just short the next intraday high and hold it for a few weeks? Instead of trying to outsmart the chart on a daily basis?

I know you think this is "investing" yet to me it is just longer term trading without the headache of worrying about every intraday swing.

Ie: the Kiwi chart I posted last night. A long at the swing low was a Highly profitable trade on the daily without much thinking besides an accommodating stop for the daily chart and really just watching the chart with a target in the range of the last swing high.

Sure one could say well a short at the swing high almost as profitable too, yet, where did that end? on a low Rising UTL.
The long ended with a new monthly high breaking resistance. The buck may be the "global fiat currency" yet a high buck is not liked
only by the USGovnmt but any other investor/trader who has to pay to settle commodities in USD.


---------------------------------

Personally, I don't trust gold to act the same way as currencies ever.

There are too many different factors that come into play here, besides the simple techs and "funny"mentals.

Mining, Safe Haven, Risk, Reward, Jewelry, Electronics, GLD, Futures, etc. oh and News or Just Headlines for that matter,
affecting the price constantly.

A retest of 1180 is possible on a strong breach of 1275,
yet would you trust riding that? Or look for longs again @1180?


Look at what the risk currencies are doing? It's just a matter of time before Gold re-catches it's steam.

Perhaps a lower price test will be the vehicle, until then, I'm keeping my trades, "close to the vest" if you will.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,253
  • Sep 14, 2013 8:07am Sep 14, 2013 8:07am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} A couple of weeks ago I posted a series of spread charts XAU/DXY, XAU/SPX, XAU/XAG and even I think London PM daily fix for dollar, euro and pound. They had trendlines on price and spread indicator. Showing trend and then a reversal off June 28th lows. since then all trendlines have been broken the last few days into the other (previous) direction. That along with EW count gives me the confidence in saying I believe new lows are ahead. As always I can be wrong.
I completely understand your reasoning, yet, sometimes as you might say to me, "I am not seeing things as a two way street."

I completely respect and like that you post a bearish outlook, because it is real and looming evidently.

However, the Trend lines were broken in BOTH directions, UTLS and DTLs.

There just are more UTLs Long term on the chart to break than there are DTLs, with two major ones already broken.

Sometimes it is helpful to think of it in "simple terms" such as this, go to the store and be ready to fork out the cash to buy one single ounce of Gold.
At a price still well above a G-NOTE - Gold is essentially not cheap.
We are still closer to 1500 than to 1000. So your ATM machine best allow withdrawals of 1k plus per day or your going to the counter.

Now, even again, on further descent, I still do not see anything to support a notion of my lowest low test of 1050 breaking.
Likewise, until it happens or we get sufficiently closer I do not support a clear breach of 1180 as of yet.

Just my point of view and yes, I can be wrong too.

XT-
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,254
  • Sep 14, 2013 8:21am Sep 14, 2013 8:21am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} A couple of weeks ago I posted a series of spread charts XAU/DXY, XAU/SPX, XAU/XAG and even I think London PM daily fix for dollar, euro and pound. They had trendlines on price and spread indicator. Showing trend and then a reversal off June 28th lows. since then all trendlines have been broken the last few days into the other (previous) direction. That along with EW count gives me the confidence in saying I believe new lows are ahead. As always I can be wrong.
Yes, I remember, Yet how much stock do you put into pegging gold to any of these instruments even through thick and thin, it still, is not always the case that
Gold will move in tandem with silver, - Hence - your reference to XAU/XAG.

London fix prices are helpful because most of the world uses them, however I equate it similarly to simply looking at the NY Line chart highs and lows.

In reference to what I just stated, Gold was Highly expensive at 1900 and even so at 1700.

For the yellow metal to continue north a correction was looming as well from almost 2k per ozt.
Sure, it may not be over yet, but, this is big business and we are talking about something that IS rare and takes tons of earth to move to create one pure ozt.

Governments likely like the lower price points to pad their international holdings, as do some hedge funds and banksters.

I am not opposed to a great short ie: 1550 to 1180 was a great trade.
But, I as an opposite will be looking for bottom barrel prices to buy, do to the past ten years on the chart, it has proven more profitable to buy and hold,
then to sell and hold short for a couple days or weeks.

Even when we moved from 1800 appx to 1550 for all those weeks after 1900 there was still no clear cut direction.
Yes, after the correction it is evident that many have exited and until the same steam returns, we likely will not see a new all time high.

But, again, as aforementioned, gold has x 6ed or x 5d it's total price on the ten year depending on where you look.
Has the Buck done this? The Dow? S&P? no.

The only other commodity or financial vehicle that has offered similar profits is oil and sugar, as I see it.
Perhaps I'm missing some exotics, but I don't trade em' so...
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,255
  • Sep 14, 2013 8:33am Sep 14, 2013 8:33am
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} I am sorry for posting this br0ker related question. I scalp gold on a 1 minute chart using Bob Volman's set-ups. The br0ker I use has a really good spread of 20 points (2 pips), however they have atrocious slippage (on StopLoss only of course!). Can anyone please recommend a br0ker with similar spread but better habits. You can PM me if you like.
We should take this to PM but where are you located?
and have you considered trading futures?

LOL, of course it's likely on the stops! I'm sure when your TP is hit it could be 5 ticks below and get pulled!
Typical BS of brokers.....

Sometimes it is better to just write down or mark your areas on the chart and not use a stop or TP for this very reason.
just be sure you can execute market orders from your phone if you are not by the computer.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,256
  • Sep 14, 2013 11:20am Sep 14, 2013 11:20am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi SunTrader, I like your chart, it reminds me of mine. Some areas of interest for bounce. Scott {image}
Thanks for posting, looks like a nice gartley, I have to do the math for the completion area unless you have it ready?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,257
  • Sep 14, 2013 1:08pm Sep 14, 2013 1:08pm
I just lost my entire fvcking post,

In any case here is the old chart for the INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS>< No not the shampoo.

Here is a chart as well which shows the pattern on a stock trade, where all these patterns started.

I will post the new chart later. with neck s1 - head - nd S2.

I like the new low increasing the chances of a CLEAN BROKEN NECK.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,258
  • Sep 14, 2013 1:13pm Sep 14, 2013 1:13pm
I also have new dailys with fibos pulled as such
All time high, I pull from 1900 to 1180 low
Next the last "swing" high I believe around 1750/1800
to 1180 low.

may need an edit here have to go out-

Yet the fact is we are on some stronger support than I originally thought and as amazing as fibos and plotting true SR levels,
well GUESS WHAT?!

They are almost IDENTICAL!


Shorts may want to cover on aussie open..

Then again I leave this to you BECAUSE THE MARKET WILL DO WHAT IT WANTS WHENEVER IT WANTS!

G/L
XT-

Till' later mateys!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #25,259
  • Sep 14, 2013 2:22pm Sep 14, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Thanks for posting, looks like a nice gartley, I have to do the math for the completion area unless you have it ready?
Thank you. Nice thread here.

I have small butterfly with 161.8 ext at 1308.19. Some people consider that valid, others do not, but nice reaction.

I have bat completing at 1291.46.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #25,260
  • Sep 14, 2013 3:34pm Sep 14, 2013 3:34pm
finfx.fi welcomes US traders, so if anyone reading this thread might benefit from that information, there it is! XT: I never heard back on the private message on finfx.fi - sorry if confusing - should simply have posted the info here on the thread.

To be clear! This isn't an ad. One may trade gold with finfx.fi; that's the reason for posting the name.
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