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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #24,941
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:30pm Sep 1, 2013 5:30pm
Looks like the price fell back to support on open...

Might not be a bad entry for a long if you're aggressive,

Yet safer to either wait till Tuesday
or at least see if she closes hourly above 1378..

Definitely scalpable for 5 USD moves +
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,942
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:33pm Sep 1, 2013 5:33pm
This is where it gets a bit more difficult. The pop to 1400/1430 was pretty easy to read and sell, but at this point, it could be on its way to 1325, or it might stop hereabouts and trade between 1370 and 1425. Impossible to tell right now. Might sell a put on a visit to 1350, maybe..maybe, but probably should just wait for the next trip to 1425. Note to self: don't be greedy, don't be impatient.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #24,943
  • Sep 1, 2013 5:36pm Sep 1, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Welp whether it's UP, Down, Or SIDEWAYS! she's gonna move, I like to use the best tools at the time ie: techs, fundies, NeWs etc. to gauge how I will base my plays. - -- - - - - - - - - - - -- - - -- ---- -- ------- ----------------------- US Bank Holiday tomorrow
Well you know me. Look both ways before trading.
  • #24,944
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:10pm Sep 1, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
This is where it gets a bit more difficult. The pop to 1400/1430 was pretty easy to read and sell, but at this point, it could be on its way to 1325, or it might stop hereabouts and trade between 1370 and 1425. Impossible to tell right now. Might sell a put on a visit to 1350, maybe..maybe, but probably should just wait for the next trip to 1425. Note to self: don't be greedy, don't be impatient.

If you have enough faith in a short, the smarter, or more aggressive in this case, would be to put it on Now or rather when the current h1/h4 bar was pinning, and see if you can even make it to 1350

If you sell at 1350 you are very effectively selling into a known and what should be strong support,

Sure it could go the other way but I will stick with suntrader's innuendo about cars:
"It would be like driving against the traffic without the lights OFF."

Most of this is order catching up on longs that took profit before the long weekend.

I personally unless I see something else will keep on what I have and wait for a new, more decisive entry before adding.

THERE IS INTERIM SUPPORT AT 1380
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,945
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:26pm Sep 1, 2013 6:26pm
Gold loves Fibonacci, but knowing that and watching it hit the initial target pull back level doesn't do anything for those of us who can't trade spot and have to wait for the NYMEX to open. Daily RSI is right at support, so assuming that holds, by the time the North American markets open gold could (and I think will) be back to where it was at close on Friday. For that matter, having achieved the pull back target there will likely be a jump higher at open before retail orders are processed.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,946
  • Sep 1, 2013 6:56pm Sep 1, 2013 6:56pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} If you have enough faith in a short, the smarter, or more aggressive in this case, would be to put it on Now or rather when the current h1/h4 bar was pinning, and see if you can even make it to 1350 If you sell at 1350 you are very effectively selling into a known and what should be strong support, Sure it could go the other way but I will stick with suntrader's innuendo about cars: "It would be like driving against the traffic without the lights OFF." Most of this is order catching up on longs that took profit before the long weekend....
No way would I put a short on here.
I just closed a short call that I rolled over at expiry earlier this week; so I was already short.
I might sell an OOTM put somewhere down at 1325/50; I don't know. But I'm flat now and just watching.
Good luck.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #24,947
  • Edited Sep 2, 2013 12:42pm Sep 1, 2013 7:58pm | Edited Sep 2, 2013 12:42pm
What is drives some now to look for shorts at all. Some people only "short" some only "long" others don't care buy know when to go the opposite direction,
of what they might like, because the trend says so.

From 1180/1200 we have already hit 1430 = 250 off the low,
there is an H4 channel that is working, if one wants to try and squeeze every Pip out of a trend then by all means,
sit at the computer 24/7 and place your orders wisely.

I learned the HARD way that counter trend trading usually ends up a losing battle,
Thus, you will lose more money getting in and out then you would simply getting in at a nice low, and LETTING IT RIDE!
Or just simply taking the time to identify the trend in either direction, then exploit it as much as possible without getting burned in the process.

Getting hung up in the middle, trying to guess what the market will do, Or where the market makers will run your stops
is multi biased and does not work, as you and all likely know.

Long term remains up. Weekly / Yearly
Middle Term is sideways to down with a new trend emerging, up. this is off the daily / weekly.
Short term / not scalping we are UP. Clearly - H4

For any that want to trade safely try waiting for the market to come to you, if it doesn't either '"you" have no patience or you are going the wrong way.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,948
  • Sep 1, 2013 8:15pm Sep 1, 2013 8:15pm
Quoting XTrade
Gold is cooking! Spot high 1369.70 Silver has added over a buck to the price! It would be great to see these turn into bull flags. {image}
Both Of these runs turned into bull flags a "continuation pattern" on the daily. Both completed.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,949
  • Sep 1, 2013 8:21pm Sep 1, 2013 8:21pm
X,

On a 5 min chart it has taken 30 bars up to retrace the opening drop that took 4 to go down.

Not too bullish to me.

Also it still has $4 to go to get back to Friday's close.

Still it is holiday light trading so in the big picture not really meaningful either way.

sun
  • #24,950
  • Sep 1, 2013 8:50pm Sep 1, 2013 8:50pm
Silver tasted its low then moved back up to handily clear Friday's close. Gold is within a 3rd of a percent of Friday's close. Clear rejection at the triple Fibonacci convergence at $1374 makes another move down to that level very unlikely (but one can always hope for a double-bottom I suppose).

It's disappointing not to be able to trade such a well-defined and well-behaved move, but at least I picked up a few hundred dollars from one last short Friday afternoon. At this point I can only hope gold hasn't risen too high before NY opens on Tuesday.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,951
  • Sep 1, 2013 9:30pm Sep 1, 2013 9:30pm
One more chart before i pack it in for the night.

In retrospect is it any wonder price turned down on Wednesday - as it approached zone including top of high volume spike down day 4/15/12. Also notice divergence between price and rate of change indi on bottom:
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  • #24,952
  • Sep 1, 2013 10:24pm Sep 1, 2013 10:24pm
http://www.fxempire.com/technical/te...ical-analysis/

I have no specific reason, but my opinion is, we will go down and test again where we were a few hours ago, before going higher in a few days or earlier (how's that for leaving it wide open). I understand that 1368-1370 is a significant area though certainly not the only one.
  • #24,953
  • Edited 5:40pm Sep 2, 2013 1:03am | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting SunTrader
X, On a 5 min chart it has taken 30 bars up to retrace the opening drop that took 4 to go down. Not too bullish to me. Also it still has $4 to go to get back to Friday's close. Still it is holiday light trading so in the big picture not really meaningful either way. sun

Agreed/ this really means nothing. It is clear that we had profit taking and have bank holidays for tomorrow.

However, I do like to LOOK at and if I am super short term scalping I will use maybe a 5 min for entry if I am counting pennies,
Otherwise unless clear cut, like a 100 pip break out - or a clear test and retest, then failure of a support, I find doing and using
analysis on the one 5 and ten/15 m (at times 15) usually useless for even 4H trading.

IMO - These chart have so much noise on them that even if a trend is defined and clear, slap someone in front of a 5 minute and unless you have a hundred pip day,
it would take several days to even come up with simple support and resistance.
Not in all cases but.

Sometimes it is fun to find mini chart patterns on them and play them or scalp the pattern.

Even day trading, unless the day is as slow as it is now, I rarely use anything below an M30 for any charting.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes - 5 min to drop and whatever to go back up.

well, it's always the ELEVATOR DOWN v AND the STAIRS UP ^
Right.

Tangent begins:
I suppose this is one of the reasons everyone on this forum likes to trade every pair short. WHICH IS FINE!!!

To each is own. To me Long or short, Usually Long has Longer stronger trends, perhaps again the reason why most places with any chart is "bid"
so that you know what you get if you Sell or flatten your long, not for short traders to know their entry price because they can make a lot of money in
a short period of time if they get in and out quickly!!!

After trying trading all trading styles, short term scalping only minute charts vs. daytrading, (let's say a few positions in and out until your market closes)
and Longer term, 3 days plus to weeks at a clip,

I prefer trading longerer term depending on the market and the time of year. Altogether even in the slow summer
months I still prefer it and truly regret not learning "trading" and "analysis" based on these charts first, Weekly, Daily, H4,

I remember reading a lot of older trader's on various forums whether trading commodities, stocks, even here on Fun Factory,
stressing the importance of Learning the Higher TFs first, then you can do/ learn anything (style, TF, etc) you want.

Then when I got my first FX account - LOL like learning how to ride a bike! If you don't get back up from the falls you will never ride.
It quickly becomes apparent, there is no way to get rich quick here without doing the hard work, which then takes time!
Just like anything else in life, there is no free lunch.

Tangent end:

You have been around the block,

What do you suggest to newbies???
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,954
  • Sep 2, 2013 1:04am Sep 2, 2013 1:04am
Quoting KADC
Silver tasted its low then moved back up to handily clear Friday's close. Gold is within a 3rd of a percent of Friday's close. Clear rejection at the triple Fibonacci convergence at $1374 makes another move down to that level very unlikely (but one can always hope for a double-bottom I suppose). It's disappointing not to be able to trade such a well-defined and well-behaved move, but at least I picked up a few hundred dollars from one last short Friday afternoon. At this point I can only hope gold hasn't risen too high before NY opens on Tuesday....

Don't get down - no one is trading.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,955
  • Sep 2, 2013 1:06am Sep 2, 2013 1:06am
Quoting SunTrader
One more chart before i pack it in for the night. In retrospect is it any wonder price turned down on Wednesday - as it approached zone including top of high volume spike down day 4/15/12. Also notice divergence between price and rate of change indi on bottom: {image}
We also were coming off a new monthly high.

I See the diverg. tho thx for showing.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,956
  • Sep 2, 2013 1:24am Sep 2, 2013 1:24am
Looks like the open low is gone with a new high for today so far.

Looking at the hourly it looks like the price sat there for 2 hours not moving, then likely a large cap institution hit "SELL"
pushing the market around. Likely covered the short and went long. Perhaps going to exit soon.

Also. On the daily I don't see the price going further as of now than a test of the second broken DTL or the 100 DMA
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,957
  • Sep 2, 2013 1:59am Sep 2, 2013 1:59am
H1 shows a stall of price on the h4 channel I have been posting / using at the midpoint. A little steam and it should go through. Although it would have
"technically" been nice to see a test of the lower, but, we shall see - on the above chart this would be "bottom" appx 1370,

So far it looks like 1378 help up nicely for interim support.

You can see it largely in the back in green ascending TLs.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,958
  • Sep 2, 2013 2:10am Sep 2, 2013 2:10am
Quoting XTrade
Looks like the open low is gone with a new high for today so far. Looking at the hourly it looks like the price sat there for 2 hours not moving, then likely a large cap institution hit "SELL" pushing the market around. Likely covered the short and went long. Perhaps going to exit soon. Also. On the daily I don't see the price going further as of now than a test of the second broken DTL or the 100 DMA {image} {image}
Useful observations about that drop, and agree about the 100 DMA. In case some one might find this useful, too: a moving average I watch is 5 ema shift +3, typical price (HLC/3) which serves like a Gann line to mark possibly buy/sell areas, and usually seems to come into play ahead of it.
  • #24,959
  • Sep 2, 2013 4:19am Sep 2, 2013 4:19am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} See this is NOT Geared towards you but I am going to use you as an example. What is driving you now to look for shorts at all. Some people only "short" some only "long" others don't care buy know when to go the opposite direction, of what they might like, because the trend says so. The post I gave you before clearly stated "if you have enough faith in short" Then in so many words - "do it now while the price is somewhat higher than the low, then ride it." It is clear you do not. And I use the word "faith" iin a NON - Religious...
Jesus, enough already. I'm trying to be patient with you, but you're testing my patience. I'm not some newbie you can lecture. Let it go and find somebody else to lecture with your condescending superiority.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #24,960
  • Sep 2, 2013 4:21am Sep 2, 2013 4:21am
Quoting KADC
Gold loves Fibonacci, but knowing that and watching it hit the initial target pull back level doesn't do anything for those of us who can't trade spot and have to wait for the NYMEX to open. Daily RSI is right at support, so assuming that holds, by the time the North American markets open gold could (and I think will) be back to where it was at close on Friday. For that matter, having achieved the pull back target there will likely be a jump higher at open before retail orders are processed.
KADC, Xtrade, Suntrader and other senior members could you see the weekly chart, and could you please comment on wht you think abut this.
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