XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Daily ABC complete at Pinbar - time, price and pattern coming together:

If price closes below 1343 (wave A closing high) this would be further confirmation and continuation of bear market.

Same thing with Silver:

Another chart, this one Gold/Silver spread which shows the speculative nature of gold and the more industrial nature of silver.

Gold on top, Silver in middle, Spread (in yellow) on bottom.

It shows back in late '09 into middle '10 when Gold starting to take off with the spread dropping. It went down as low as just under 32.

Magenta line shows gold alltime high date. Notice at that same point silver divergence making a lower swing high to its alltime high which was back in April two days after that low point in spread.

Then after both topped out spread has been in a steady continuous uptrend ..... until recently.

With the most recent corrective waves of gold and silver the spread dropped somewhat breaking through two short term trendlines just like price has. It appears to me to have found support (dotted line). if not a longer term trendline awaits below.

As always time will tell.

And one more for good measure. Gold/SPX spread.

Same as the other, gold on top, Spx in middle, spread on bottom.

Similar results. Just flip around trendlines but more than likely same outcome expected.

Will answer this hopefully tonight, just got back.

SURE GOLD / USDX

1325-1425 for a few months is my expectation, then down. There is a possibility of a run to 1475 but it's an outside possibility at the moment for me, although it could be the last pump before the next dump; it's a common MO.

would be nice to have reasons to go with your opinion



this is a convoluted but interesting read - avoid the comments for the sake of sanity:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5...ce-gold-corner

When you've seen a million charts, it just comes down to gut feel, which encapsulates probably a large number of "little things" that add up to a bias long or short. Currently my bias is sideways/short. But anyway, some observations:
Having dropped as far as 1200 clearly for me the gold bull has been (for me) mortally wounded. There has been an impressive but nonetheless corrective (IMO) recovery of $200 to 1425, which has at least for the time being been decisively rejected, not even being able to close above $1400 on the week.
However, there is perhaps too much chatter of taper talk and therefore one should perhaps not get too excited on the downside. Price still needs to correct IMO until the 200DMA is reached, which is descending at a nice rate. Tapering is coming; it may not come at the next FOMC meeting but come it shall. The US arguably led the way on the ZIRP++ front and will probably lead the way out of ZIRP++.

thanks

Another one "rides the bus" :

Seems like Gold will test that DTL sooner than the greenback will test the UTL.

Could spell for some eXXXPLOSION! BOOOM!

Could be or could be wishful thinking.

Thinking tapering coming in Sept will bring dollar strength. How long and how much is anyone's guess.

As always IMO price is most important though - not fundies.

Was writing in re: some thoughts to your techs.
However, as netdania launched my computer or web rather froze so I lost my post -
Hence half of it is a picture, (too busy to re-type now) and the rest well, written. Had almost finished too!

Please view my first pic (for now will edit/fix lateR) Before reading the end of the text below.
after picture - in addition to the thought of
when we hit the range @ 1638/ 40 which is the 61.08 this to me would be a substantial retracement.

yet 1550 is of the same if not more important than 1638/50...

Once 1550 went after ranging for months and who only knows how many tests between the two (1550 < -range ->1750)
sell stops were triggered and Gold got hit hard.

1180 was really only a reaction low and the more true support came in @ 1200. See the candle bodies in the chart?
none are lower than 1200. Same as for the high.

When we can still Pull valid fibos from the ALL TIME - EVER - not a retest, high of a commodity it suggests we have not been in said "downtrend" for very long.

---------CHARTS--------
: beginning of my post
: 1550 / 1750 RANGE
: 1550 Break then massive drop.
: Some quick Major Up Trend Lines going back +10 years and the latest from 2008 which is broken. Fibo pull from 1921 to 1181

Lastly to see real chart damage I would need to see the price below 1050 for a solid amount of time then a test to 850.

Lastly #2 EVEN if Gold were to TEST 1050 in the even of the correction of price was not over, it would still be worth over 3 times what it was 10 years back.

Forgot I had one more. This chart has the London am & pm Gold Fix data for US Dollar (top) and Euro (2nd level) plus rate of change indicator for both (3rd level) blue for dollar, red for euro and spread indicator (4th level). Although I put a couple of horizontal lines on spread indicator it does not seem to help much showing reversals in dollar or euro price. But the rate of change does clearly show there was divergence with price at the late June low as well as other twists and turns.

i am very sad that SunTrader didn't reply me .

: (

It is not something that really can be taught to someone else (especially over the internet). Just by one's own observation, sorry.

But this reminds me, a little, of a story I read in a book Trading Chaos by Bill Williams:

"A number of years ago I attended a meeting in Boulder , Colorado , with the newly arrived Swami Muktananda from India . He proved to be a most interesting fellow. He gave no lectures; he only told stories and wove those stories into an instructional format. Accompanying him was an interpreter, complete with saffron-colored robes, from the University of Colorado . Muktananda maintained that not being fluent in English was a great advantage to becoming a guru in America . He started his lecture with the following story.

There was a student in India who wanted to become enlightened. He left his family in search of an appropriate guru to guide him further on his journey. Stopping at one guru's place of business, he inquired as to this guru's method of becoming enlightened. The guru said, "Becoming enlightened is really quite simple. All you need to do is to go home each night and sit in front of a mirror for 30 minutes asking yourself the same question over and over. That question is: 'Who am I? Who am I? Who am I?'" The prospective student replied, "Hey, it can't be that simple."

"Oh yes, it is just that simple/' replied the guru, "but if you would like a second opinion, there are several other gurus on this street."
"Thank you very much," said the student, "I think I will inquire down the way."

The student approached the second guru with the same question. "How do I become enlightened?"

The second guru replied, "Oh, it is quite difficult and takes much time. Actually, one must join with like-minded others in an ashram and do sava. Sava means 'selfless service,' so you work without pay."

The student was excited; this guru's philosophy was more consistent with his own preconceived view of enlightenment. He had always heard it was difficult. The guru told the student that the only job open at the ashram was cleaning out the cow stalls. If the student was really serious about becoming enlightened, the guru would allow him to shovel all the dung and be responsible for keeping the cow stalls clean. The student accepted the job, feeling confident that he must be on the right path.

After five long years of shoveling cow dung and keeping the stalls clean, the student was becoming discouraged and impatient about enlightenment. He approached the guru and said, "Honored teacher, I have faithfully served you for five years cleaning up the dirtiest part of your ashram. I have never missed a day and have never complained once. Do you think it might be time for me to become enlightened?"
The guru answered, "Why yes, I believe you are ready. Now, here is what you do. You go home every night and look yourself in the mirror for 30 minutes, asking yourself the same question over and over. That question is: 'Who am I? Who am I? Who am I?'"

The very surprised student said, "Pardon me, honored one, but that is what the other guru down the street told me five years ago."

"Well, he was right," responded the guru.

+ + +

It's conceivable it could push up to 1550 (anything is possibly) especially when one looks at your third chart, which shows the magnitude of the drop, but I see a 50% fib at just under 1500. Furthermore the 38% fib this last week proved too much.

Pardom me , Oh Honoured SunTrader Guru Ji ... I am speechless !!!

All I can say is , "Please tell me the simplified rules that I can go home each night and sit in front of the computer monitor and observe the charts for 60 minutes or more, over and over till I get Enlightened "

Yours most humbly ,