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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #24,581
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:05pm Aug 23, 2013 2:05pm
%ntage wise SILVER is adding more each day than gold.

Looks like we may have a 1400+ close for gold and silver is already up 5 USD from the recent low. Not too shabby.
Even buying physical metal that's about a 4 USD yield per ozt. as I had mentioned posts ago.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,582
  • Aug 23, 2013 2:39pm Aug 23, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Thanks for posting this. In the USA due to DODD Frank act - NO CFD trading - NO leverage on Gold or silver ie: 1:1 - Futures, options or ETFs are the better options.
Yup, I miss those 50:1 leverage spot gold days. Options on 3x leveraged etfs (like DUST and NUGT - miner etfs) have comparable or better leverage, though.

I bought a SLW Oct strangle today - long $24 puts/long $30 calls, breaks even with a $1.70 move either way.

Nice thread here - I'm not gonna litter it with any more discussion of options, if anyone is interested in options trading they are invited to visit my thread. Cheers.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #24,583
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:20pm Aug 23, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yup, I miss those 50:1 leverage spot gold days. Options on 3x leveraged etfs (like DUST and NUGT - miner etfs) have comparable or better leverage, though. I bought a SLW Oct strangle today - long $24 puts/long $30 calls, breaks even with a $1.70 move either way. Nice thread here - I'm not gonna litter it with any more discussion of options, if anyone is interested in options trading they are invited to visit my thread. Cheers.

Please feel free to discuss any options, futures, or spot related to gold, silver, PT, PD here.

I made the thread for spot traders for two reasons:
1. I started trading physical metal, thus needed spot prices.
2. The only way to trade gold / silver via FX broker is using spot.

BUT, by no means does that mean that discussion on anything - ie: miners - related to PMs is not encouraged.

SO feel free to post away.

We could use some more seniors in here anyway.

Thanks!
And welcome.
XTrade.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,584
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:23pm Aug 23, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yup, I miss those 50:1 leverage spot gold days. Options on 3x leveraged etfs (like DUST and NUGT - miner etfs) have comparable or better leverage, though. I bought a SLW Oct strangle today - long $24 puts/long $30 calls, breaks even with a $1.70 move either way. Nice thread here - I'm not gonna litter it with any more discussion of options, if anyone is interested in options trading they are invited to visit my thread. Cheers.
It was even better when it was 100:1 !!!


I actually prefer trading currencies with 50:1 leverage max.
from what I have read, many large banks only use 25:1 max.

Although trading futures can be less liquid at times and requires more money, trading @ 1:1 is just as good
as going to the coin shop and buying bulk, waiting a few days, then selling back less the vig.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,585
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:42pm Aug 23, 2013 3:42pm
End of day tech and fundamental analysis.

Using DTLs from the all time high and two others off of the recent correction, we have successfully taken out two of the three.

With a likely close to the week just under a simple psych level of 1400 / which offers no real support or resistance other than a level to place stops,
this psycho level should be taken out by next weeks sessions, with a new target of 1450 give or take 10 USD.

To the downside a test of 1375 at best 1360 may occur before moving onward and upward.

US data has been fairly poor overall this week with new home sales way below forecast helping propel the USD lower and Gold up as
they are currently enjoying the usual inverse relationship.

Up next week core durable goods, pending home sales, prelim GDP, unemployment, and more junk from the FOMC round out the week.

Higher highs and higher lows on the chart,

A fair amount of ground to make up, to the upside, yet, price action looks healthy.
Don't be afraid of sideways movement in between the releases.

On the daily the price is now above the 50 and 100 Day SMAs.
and as of now the 200 DMA resides with the last DTL to break north,
which would call for 1490 / 1500 price point, with immediate possibly strong resistance @ 1550.

Silver has as aforementioned, likely helped propel the Gold price, which is usually the reverse,
adding appx 5 usd just this month. Which what appears to be a bottom established around 18.50 with a 2 USD range that broke between
18.50 and 20.50 precisely the point at which the first DTL broke. see chart.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,586
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:49pm Aug 23, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting XTrade
End of day tech and fundamental analysis. Using DTLs from the all time high and two others off of the recent correction, we have successfully taken out two of the three. With a likely close to the week just under a simple psych level of 1400 / which offers no real support or resistance other than a level to place stops, this psycho level should be taken out by next weeks sessions, with a new target of 1450 give or take 10 USD. To the downside a test of 1375 at best 1360 may occur before moving onward and upward. US data has been fairly poor overall...
Great analysis xTrade thanks.. i manage to catch the some long on 1355.. i was thinking adding a few more stops at the 1400 and catch the next wave towards the 1450.. i think silver breaking that $24 maybe we can go 25 pretty quick. silver is really outperforming gold

Cheers
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
  • #24,587
  • Edited 4:04pm Aug 23, 2013 4:03pm | Edited 4:04pm
Quoting Fizie
{quote} Great analysis xTrade thanks.. i manage to catch the some long on 1355.. i was thinking adding a few more stops at the 1400 and catch the next wave towards the 1450.. i think silver breaking that $24 maybe we can go 25 pretty quick. silver is really outperforming gold Cheers
No problem, my pleasure.

Yes, as of now it seems to be. Silver is undervalued at this point and will surprise many in the years to come.

I like it not only as a trade, but a physical investment for the long term hold.

A great way to balance out trading the silver rollercoaster if you do decide to buy some actual metal, is
shorting paper if the purchase price of your physical investment declines (which often happens) and simply holding the
physical metal, then when your desired entry is hit, cover the short and take a long.

It's usually a win win, if played correctly.

New target for silver is 26.00 even
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,588
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:41pm Aug 23, 2013 5:41pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Please feel free to discuss any options, futures, or spot related to gold, silver, PT, PD here. I made the thread for spot traders for two reasons: 1. I started trading physical metal, thus needed spot prices. 2. The only way to trade gold / silver via FX broker is using spot. BUT, by no means does that mean that discussion on anything - ie: miners - related to PMs is not encouraged. SO feel free to post away. We could use some more seniors in here anyway. Thanks! And welcome. XTrade.
OK, cool, thanks, will do, I am in/out of gold/silver/miner options trades regularly so I will drop in when I have something to share on those. Happy trades!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #24,589
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:00am Aug 24, 2013 10:00am
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  • #24,590
  • Aug 24, 2013 10:40am Aug 24, 2013 10:40am
Quoting XTrade
End of day tech and fundamental analysis. Using DTLs from the all time high and two others off of the recent correction, we have successfully taken out two of the three. With a likely close to the week just under a simple psych level of 1400 / which offers no real support or resistance other than a level to place stops, this psycho level should be taken out by next weeks sessions, with a new target of 1450 give or take 10 USD. To the downside a test of 1375 at best 1360 may occur before moving onward and upward. US data has been fairly poor overall...
Good Analysis XTrade, i also think that gold will move back at-least 1374.6 or may be more.
Keep it up...
  • #24,591
  • Aug 24, 2013 11:14am Aug 24, 2013 11:14am
Logarithmic charts

The only way to go when trading assets with high % changes (commodities and stocks)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #24,592
  • Aug 24, 2013 11:22am Aug 24, 2013 11:22am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} No problem, my pleasure. Yes, as of now it seems to be. Silver is undervalued at this point and will surprise many in the years to come. I like it not only as a trade, but a physical investment for the long term hold. A great way to balance out trading the silver rollercoaster if you do decide to buy some actual metal, is shorting paper if the purchase price of your physical investment declines (which often happens) and simply holding the physical metal, then when your desired entry is hit, cover the short and take a long. It's usually a...
24.50 and 25.90 for me

the real resistance doesn't come until 32 however. but 26 should still provide a take profit point so we can buy back slightly cheaper.

i have some very very long term targets but wont hesitate to take profits and buy lower if i see the opportunity



how long until you see it at $50 again?
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #24,593
  • Aug 24, 2013 11:45am Aug 24, 2013 11:45am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} the real resistance doesn't come until 32
I THINK; 18 dollars support held the price and we came to 24. in 2012 gold 1520dollars, and silver 26,5 dollars were hard supports as you remember and now I think they turned to hard resistance.it won't be easy to break them now.

uncle bernanke is stopping printing money and you say rally until 32 is starting? I think it's early to say that. Big drops can come at 17-18 september fed meetings and 18dollars level can be broken and we can see 9 dollars until june 2014. and it will be great opportunity to buy silver. everyone will sell their house and they will buy silver, and price will FLYYYY.
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  • #24,594
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:05pm Aug 24, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting emirfas1
{quote} I THINK; 18 dollars support held the price and we came to 24. in 2012 gold 1520dollars, and silver 26,5 dollars were hard supports as you remember and now I think they turned to hard resistance.it won't be easy to break them now. uncle bernanke is stopping printing money and you say rally until 32 is starting? I think it's early to say that. Big drops can come at 17-18 september fed meetings and 18dollars level can be broken and we can see 9 dollars until june 2014. and it will be great opportunity to buy silver. everyone will sell their...
silver
26.00-12 = $ 14.00
14.00x144 = $ 20.16
20.16-12 = $ 8.16
  • #24,595
  • Edited 12:21pm Aug 24, 2013 12:09pm | Edited 12:21pm
Quoting takytto
{quote} silver 26.00-12 = $ 14.00 14.00x144 = $ 20.16 20.16-12 = $ 8.16

what kind of calculation is this? are you having fun or serious? what is 14x144 ?
it looks possible at chart
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  • #24,596
  • Edited Aug 25, 2013 8:03am Aug 24, 2013 12:14pm | Edited Aug 25, 2013 8:03am
good luck to the gold bulls hope to earn good money.
  • #24,597
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:25pm Aug 24, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting takytto
good luck to the gold bulls hope to earn good money. (1426-144 $)? and looks like someone says that gold goes up $ 2000 $ 3000 etc etc someone can tell me where this so I would know. gold will not return in 1846 more then ripped. no one can say they know someone better and analyst. but 3000 4000 $ Where To this it where I'll still see the gold $ 420 is written that and reality. to see when it hit 1846. I know that xt. and good professional but guesses where it goes.
Could you please give some explanations about your calculations? Tyou.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #24,598
  • Edited Aug 25, 2013 8:04am Aug 24, 2013 12:28pm | Edited Aug 25, 2013 8:04am
....
  • #24,599
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:29pm Aug 24, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting emirfas1
{quote} I THINK; 18 dollars support held the price and we came to 24. in 2012 gold 1520dollars, and silver 26,5 dollars were hard supports as you remember and now I think they turned to hard resistance.it won't be easy to break them now. uncle bernanke is stopping printing money and you say rally until 32 is starting? I think it's early to say that. Big drops can come at 17-18 september fed meetings and 18dollars level can be broken and we can see 9 dollars until june 2014. and it will be great opportunity to buy silver. everyone will sell their...
I think you underestimate the demand

Silver miners cost of production is $18 on the low end, $22 on the high end.. They were hurting very hard for a couple months there.. but they were also buying tons of silver instead of producing it, further increasing demand and decreasing supply.


The only thing that could cause that kind of silver price drop is a 50% reduction in the currency supply.


Yes, a dip could happen back to $20 or $18 if we Bernanke tapers. But its acttually unlikely that a taper will be sustained for more than 1 year. So yes next summer could be a buying opportunity.. But $10/ oz??? No way...



Anyway I still have huge buy limits placed at $15.50 incase anything dramatic happens...
Open longs from $19.50 and $22.50
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #24,600
  • Aug 24, 2013 12:31pm Aug 24, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting takytto
good luck to the gold bulls hope to earn good money. (1426-144 $)? and looks like someone says that gold goes up $ 2000 $ 3000 etc etc someone can tell me where this so I would know. gold will not return in 1846 more then ripped. no one can say they know someone better and analyst. but 3000 4000 $ Where To this it where I'll still see the gold $ 420 is written that and reality. to see when it hit 1846. I know that xt. and good professional but guesses where it goes.
still waiting for your response on the other gold thread where i wrote:


QUOTE

mate I don't give a flying fig what you "think" but I might be interested in knowing WHY you think it - try to persuade us that you're right

you can come out with whatever outlandish claims you want (as you've done) but unless you can justify such a claim people are going to ignore you at best or point fingers and laugh .......

this is supposed to be a serious forum which includes technical analysis and all you've done is say what you think will happen (I think the claim was that gold will go to precisely $420.08) without any reasoning - do you not understand that is not good enough?

and are you really from Holland as your profile claims? the dutch all express themselves far better in English that you seem able to ....... i'm just curious

UNQUOTE


at least xtrade seems to police this thread - and i expect you will be asked to put up or shut up ........
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