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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #24,561
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:45am Aug 23, 2013 5:45am
gold 1397 or 1338?
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  • #24,562
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:45am Aug 23, 2013 5:45am
Quoting twrayner
{image} Looking to long at 23.4 with stops at 22.4

err .... please check ur definition of " Bull Flag " ..... u might have thought of " Pennant " .... but , then check out its definition too .
  • #24,563
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:46am Aug 23, 2013 5:46am
monday is london holiday, tuesday is op ex and it's still the month of august. i wouldn't get too excited until september trading gets going. there was good money to be made when the market was trending - but if you are talking about scalping $10 here or there then ignore my comments
  • #24,564
  • Aug 23, 2013 5:54am Aug 23, 2013 5:54am
Quoting cg uno
if you are talking about scalping $10 here or there then ignore my comments
if silver goes to 25,5 dollars it means 10% . not bad. but risky
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  • #24,565
  • Aug 23, 2013 6:23am Aug 23, 2013 6:23am
Quoting emirfas1
{quote} if silver goes to 25,5 dollars it means 10% . not bad. but risky {image}
i was talking gold but the concept is the same

the whole point of technical analysis is to eliminate risk. therefore if you don't have a view or a set up why get in now given the factors i mentioned?

the correct trade was to be in silver from the low 19s
  • #24,566
  • Aug 23, 2013 7:33am Aug 23, 2013 7:33am
Quoting cg uno
{quote} the correct trade was to be in silver from the low 19s
you're right.
everywhere is full with charts.
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  • #24,567
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:00am Aug 23, 2013 9:00am
Quoting emirfas1
{quote} you're right. everywhere is full with charts. {image}
one moment you're talking about going long silver and the next about shorting gold.

with respect you might want to step back and take a long, detached look at the markets and your approach to them
  • #24,568
  • Aug 23, 2013 9:04am Aug 23, 2013 9:04am
Quoting cg uno
monday is london holiday, tuesday is op ex and it's still the month of august. i wouldn't get too excited until september trading gets going. there was good money to be made when the market was trending - but if you are talking about scalping $10 here or there then ignore my comments
Very good points.

It's normal to see a drop before options and contract expiry (starting around 4 a.m. EST when North American options become tradeable and London opens) followed by a reversal after US markets open; however, month-end take-profit coincides with Friday, plus the following Monday is Labour Day so Canadian (mining) and U.S. markets will be closed which also means low volume Friday afternoon. All told next week could be rather volatile so be nimble with your trades.

Assuming a low on Tuesday could turn into rising prices towards the end of the week, then a Friday NY open sell-off in. If that happens, I'd expect a gap up from Asian trading over the weekend.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,569
  • Edited 11:59am Aug 23, 2013 11:34am | Edited 11:59am
new homes sales even lower than previous month ... hence dollar becomes weak ... hence gold shoot up ...

is this shoot-up flash-in-the pan or a start to bullish trend ... ?

any other inputs to confirm the firming up of gold ?
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  • #24,570
  • Aug 23, 2013 11:44am Aug 23, 2013 11:44am
Though it doesn't strike me as particularly likely for late Friday afternoon trading (plus going into a British bank holiday Monday followed by options and futures expiries Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively), but should gold break above $1398 (Oct. futures R2 and a likely place to stop for the day) that could trigger stops which could push gold above psychological level $1,400. This in turn will trigger many stops and orders at $1,400 which may cause a false spike up.

This is more likely to occur next week than today, but stranger things have happened, and with apparently no-one babysitting the exhange-crashing algo-systems anything is possible. Also, price tends to get pushed up before options expiry (so it can be pushed down at options expiry so it can be pushed up again after) so price continuing to climb until the end of the day shouldn't be entirely ruled out.

Spike, rally, or gradual climb, trailing stops initiated once price breaks above R2 are ideal. Going on vacation rather than going insane watching charts which may or may not do anything between now and Tuesday is also ideal, so I intend to do both.

If we top $1,415 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full move down from September), the only remaining bearish resistance is the final descending resistance line which won't be intersected until the $1,500 region.

Breaching $1,415 should cause a sentiment shift, potentially creating a buying frenzy which could turn into a significant rally, and a $50+ rally next week -- the kind of move that was notably lacking (or a double-bottom) to confirm $1,180 as the bottom -- would cinch the end of the correction.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,571
  • Aug 23, 2013 11:49am Aug 23, 2013 11:49am
Quoting TheArcher
new homes sales even lower than previous month ... hence dollar becomes weak ... hence gold shoot up ... is this shoot-up flash-in-the pan or a start to bullish trend ... ? {image}
According to your charts, bullish trend started when the rising trend line was tested and held, was confirmed when descending resistance was breached, and reconfirmed when ascending resistance was breached.

What factors would you consider to be confirmation of bullish trend if you don't find those to be significant?
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,572
  • Aug 23, 2013 11:50am Aug 23, 2013 11:50am
Hi

The fib channel payed off again but think momentum will carry it over to Short B

Short A - don't think it will hold. . .

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Short B

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  • #24,573
  • Aug 23, 2013 12:30pm Aug 23, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting The Fool
You can trade gold & silver related options, too - outright (GLD, SLV) or indirectly via the miner stocks and etf's (see GLD, GDX, NUGT, DUST, SLV, SLW, ABX, etc, etc...) With big spreads on the spot trading pairs, not sure if options are not as good or better, and offer better leverage.....?

Thanks for posting this. In the USA due to DODD Frank act - NO CFD trading - NO leverage on Gold or silver ie: 1:1 - Futures, options or ETFs are the better options.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,574
  • Aug 23, 2013 12:35pm Aug 23, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting prototip
{quote} ok people, no respect no share... bye... {image} {image} {image}

You call yourself the "best trader" You are using a simple Mt4 broker to post charts, with the "grid" left on - not even a simple trend line or any support or resistance,
just a bunch of words, that don't add up.

You are trolling other members and wasting space.

No valid calls, besides saying "it will go up and down" Guess what? Every financial instrument does this on any given day.

Take another break. Normally the third strike is silent and for good.

One more week to think.


Thanks for nothing.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,575
  • Edited 12:59pm Aug 23, 2013 12:36pm | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Interesting thoughts, yet I see plenty of difference. Will be happy to respond more in depth been out most of the day so need a few.

Suntrader,
you will have my in depth thoughts, charts and analysis on the "bullish" GOLD or USD long term, thoughts this weekend.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,576
  • Aug 23, 2013 12:38pm Aug 23, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting KADC
Though it doesn't strike me as particularly likely for late Friday afternoon trading (plus going into a British bank holiday Monday followed by options and futures expiries Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively), but should gold break above $1398 (Oct. futures R2 and a likely place to stop for the day) that could trigger stops which could push gold above psychological level $1,400. This in turn will trigger many stops and orders at $1,400 which may cause a false spike up. This is more likely to occur next week than today, but stranger things have...

Great thoughts.

1400 should go either today or by a pullback next week. - Target near term remains 1420 and the latter 1550 for a more decisive conclusion.
1550 is appx the 50 % fibo from all time high to 1180.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,577
  • Edited 12:48pm Aug 23, 2013 12:47pm | Edited 12:48pm
Here is the current spot metals board LAST. "third"

First - The daily with a decisive break of one of the major DTLs thus, likely triggering more buy stops and hence todays move, after days at the cusp, One more to go.....

Second -and the weekly with fibos pulled from wick tops appx 1920 to bottom 1180..
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,578
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:05pm Aug 23, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting TheArcher
new homes sales even lower than previous month ... hence dollar becomes weak ... hence gold shoot up ... is this shoot-up flash-in-the pan or a start to bullish trend ... ? any other inputs to confirm the firming up of gold ? {image} {image}

Depends on how you trade,

for the aggressive trader gold was a certain buy @ sub 1200 and has paid off.

For the safe trader 1300+ was a buy..

So far, we have broken 2 out of the 3 major DTLs with a strong and respected UTL thus far.

Higher highs and Higher lows usually spells, trend change.

If you want to look at fibos well, then we won't have any major decision until 1550 on the weekly.

In a sense I think judging by your charts you have essentially answered your own question.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,579
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:15pm Aug 23, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting emirfas1
{quote} you're right. everywhere is full with charts. {image}
pulls the stop to 1435...if you were not already
  • #24,580
  • Aug 23, 2013 1:58pm Aug 23, 2013 1:58pm
interesting.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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