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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #24,341
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:02am Aug 14, 2013 10:02am
Looks like 1320 is holding as minor support for now, still need a 30 USD increase to take out 1350....

oops forgot to post this.

In any case nice ten buck jump since I was supposed to post///

XT
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,342
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:48am Aug 14, 2013 10:48am
Quoting m3rlin
Hi all . I think now we have a trend change . On 4h Silver chart we have some bullish signal ( some candle above 200SMA ) and also on 8h chart . For me this is the time when I lead the market to judge me if I'm wrong or no . ( I'm not a native english speaker so excuse me) . {image} {image}
Thanks for posting, been meaning to post some silver charts.

Yes, the four hour looks good for a break of resistance @ the 20.50 area then a burst up to another potential minor resistance @ the 21.80 Area both clearly seen on your charts.

The downside pressure has seem to have been somewhat alleviated for both metals,
due to longs entering and short covering.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,343
  • Edited 11:44am Aug 14, 2013 11:34am | Edited 11:44am
will it breakout off the surface ..?
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  • #24,344
  • Edited 12:41pm Aug 14, 2013 12:38pm | Edited 12:41pm
It's a bit late in the day, but here's what I'm looking at hourly for gold.

As I post this gold is sitting at R1 and the approximate intersection (NetDania charts aren't accurate across time frames) of the minor bull (light blue) and bear (pink) channels that gold is trading in. Gold reacted to the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci and the rising channel support, passing through the daily pivot and the 76.4% and has stalled at the close of the European session so any further upside will likely be incremental at best.

I would expect a fall back to 76.4% Fibonacci and trading sideways until it intersects with the bear channel resistance line at which point it will push down to the rising bull support line or break up to retest $1347 during the Asian session tonight.


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I also noted a basic RSI premise that many traders overlook. As long as RSI is above 50 one can expect general upwards movement, and conversely when RSI is below 50 downward movement should be expected. Crossing this line is usually followed by significant upwards or downwards price movement.

Because RSI is calculated using prior data, RSI trendlines can be used to anticipate the change of trend. In this case, when the red bear RSI trendline was broken it indicate that a shift to bullish momentum had begun.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #24,345
  • Aug 14, 2013 1:42pm Aug 14, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting KADC
It's a bit late in the day, but here's what I'm looking at hourly for gold. As I post this gold is sitting at R1 and the approximate intersection (NetDania charts aren't accurate across time frames) of the minor bull (light blue) and bear (pink) channels that gold is trading in. Gold reacted to the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci and the rising channel support, passing through the daily pivot and the 76.4% and has stalled at the close of the European session so any further upside will likely be incremental at best. I would expect a fall back...
Hi, KADC, if I remember correctly, you've had problems with Netdania in the past.

A few days ago I found tradingview.com, and I use it for charting DXY, because FXCM has USDOLLAR, but no DXY.

I use a free account and it let's me save that chart. It looks nice, maybe you'd like it for charting (stock, forex, future, index).

PS:I forgot to mention that it has Renko, Kagi and Point & Figure charts.

Just in case...
  • #24,346
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:16pm Aug 14, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting jsr
{quote} Hi, KADC, if I remember correctly, you've had problems with Netdania in the past. A few days ago I found tradingview.com, and I use it for charting DXY, because FXCM has USDOLLAR, but no DXY. I use a free account and it let's me save that chart. It looks nice, maybe you'd like it for charting (stock, forex, future, index). PS:I forgot to mention that it has Renko, Kagi and Point & Figure charts. Just in case...
Hey dude,

DXY, USDX, DIXY
Are all the same thing.

Maybe this link will explain it to you better.
US DOLLAR INDEX
OR USDX
OR DXY
OR whatever...................
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,347
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:20pm Aug 14, 2013 4:20pm
Better late, than never.
Thank you forum moderator for posting your analysis.

Beeb please send charts for posting.

SunTRADER? Where r U?

BEMAC----Are you still with us?

Quoting KADC
It's a bit late in the day, ....................
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,348
  • Aug 14, 2013 4:34pm Aug 14, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting XTrade
{quote} Hey dude, DXY, USDX, DIXY Are all the same thing. Maybe this link will explain it to you better. US DOLLAR INDEX OR USDX OR DXY OR whatever...................
Hi XTrade,

In fact, they are not the same.

This is FXCM's USDOLLAR: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jon...M_Dollar_Index

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of the four most liquid currencies in the world – The Euro, the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, and the Australian Dollar.


You can see the chart in this link:

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_market_...s-dollar-index

At this time DXY price is 81.72 and FXCM USDOLLAR is 10734.
  • #24,349
  • Aug 14, 2013 10:16pm Aug 14, 2013 10:16pm
the way I see it , where is the H&S or double/triple bottom for it to reverse the downward major trend .... ? or will they never come ...?
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  • #24,350
  • Aug 15, 2013 2:24am Aug 15, 2013 2:24am
Quoting Scalptastic
{quote} Price action nicely rejected the Resistance zone. Gap we had on Monday is also filled now. 1314 is now support level. I would be more confident to try small long from 1306

If we are unable to break through 1346-1338 resistance zone then I think we will move lower than 1314
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  • #24,351
  • Aug 15, 2013 9:26am Aug 15, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Scalptastic
{quote} If we are unable to break through 1346-1338 resistance zone then I think we will move lower than 1314 {image}
any reason? you don't perhaps see rising support?
  • #24,352
  • Aug 15, 2013 10:32am Aug 15, 2013 10:32am
Quoting jsr
{quote} Hi, KADC, if I remember correctly, you've had problems with Netdania in the past. A few days ago I found tradingview.com, and I use it for charting DXY, because FXCM has USDOLLAR, but no DXY. I use a free account and it let's me save that chart. It looks nice, maybe you'd like it for charting (stock, forex, future, index). PS:I forgot to mention that it has Renko, Kagi and Point & Figure charts. Just in case...
Hi Jsr,

You can trade USDOLLAR (Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index) with us, but it's also possible to chart DXY or USDX (ICE Dollar Index) on our platform if you download the free custom indicator.

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/5959/usdx.png


Here's a link to a post where I provided instructions on how to load custom indicators on Trading Station: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post6532926

Jason
  • #24,353
  • Aug 15, 2013 11:32am Aug 15, 2013 11:32am
Quoting Jason Rogers
{quote} Hi Jsr, You can trade USDOLLAR (Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index) with us, but it's also possible to chart DXY or USDX (ICE Dollar Index) on our platform if you download the free custom indicator. {image} Here's a link to a post where I provided instructions on how to load custom indicators on Trading Station: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post6532926 Jason

Thanks Jason. I installled it. But it does not show the current value.
  • #24,354
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:02pm Aug 15, 2013 12:02pm
AWESOME DAY!!!

A weekly close above 1350 would indicate further bullish momentum to follow.

Look at the past range and today's break.



Quoting XTrade
Looks like 1320 is holding as minor support for now, still need a 30 USD increase to take out 1350.... oops forgot to post this. In any case nice ten buck jump since I was supposed to post/// XT {image} {image}
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,355
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:04pm Aug 15, 2013 12:04pm
And today's US unemployment was lower than forecast, which usually helps the USD.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,356
  • Edited 12:28pm Aug 15, 2013 12:16pm | Edited 12:28pm
I noticed FXCM has added this, I have not traded it.

but it is called USDOLLAR

not USDX or DXY for instance,

Here are two prices for the "USDX" and "DXY" they are the same price.

Also FXCM DOLLAR is only a weight of 4 currencies all equal. Which is an interesting concept

  1. Euro (EUR), 25% weight
  2. British Pound sterling (GBP), 25% weight
  3. Japanese Yen (JPY), 25% weight
  4. Australian Dollar (AUD), 25% weight

USDX:

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with "baker" of 6 other major currencies which are:

  1. Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
  2. Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
  3. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
  4. Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
  5. Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
  6. Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight



There's also a trade weighted dollar index which includes

Quoting jsr
{quote} Hi XTrade, In fact, they are not the same. This is FXCM's USDOLLAR: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jon...M_Dollar_Index The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of the four most liquid currencies in the world – The Euro, the British Pound, the Japanese Yen, and the Australian Dollar. You can see the chart in this link: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex_market_...s-dollar-index At this time DXY price is 81.72 and FXCM USDOLLAR...
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,357
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:20pm Aug 15, 2013 12:20pm
Gold is cooking!

Spot high 1369.70

Silver has added over a buck to the price!

It would be great to see these turn into bull flags.
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,358
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:31pm Aug 15, 2013 12:31pm
This definitely helped AG and AU today;
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,359
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:38pm Aug 15, 2013 12:38pm
@ JSR -

Did you read this? I found it quite interesting and have been saying that the USDX needs overhauling for a while.

Here it explains further how overweighted the buck is to, to Europe.

'''''''As time goes by, currency weightings will deviate from their original 25% as currency prices fluctuate. There are no regular scheduled rebalancings of the index components. To protect the index’s integrity, the index administrator is alerted if any of the individual component currencies falls in value by more than 90% from its January 1, 2011 value.[3]

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (USDOLLAR) is a collaboration between Dow Jones Indexes and FXCM. According to the index creators, it is formulated to address four of the major shortcomings of the older U.S. Dollar Index (USDX):[4]

  1. Geographic Diversification: USDOLLAR shares exposure to currencies in both Europe (Euro and Pound sterling) and the fast-growing Asia-Pacific regions (Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar), with an even 25% weighting in each currency at inception. The USDX, reflecting its inception in 1973, is very heavy in European currencies, with a 58.6% weighting in the Euro alone, and a total 78.3% weighting in European currencies.[5]

  1. Liquidity: The Euro, Pound, Yen, and Australian Dollar, when traded against the U.S. Dollar are the four most liquid currency pairs in the world. Typically, this means that trading costs, reflected in bid-offer spreads, tend to be low, and major market participants can generally easily trade in significant size.[6]

  1. Simple Methodology: Whereas the USDX uses a weighted geometric mean formulation, USDOLLAR uses a much more straightforward weighting of four equal parts that is left to run as the currencies fluctuate. This makes it easy to replicate, so it is much simpler for traders and market makers to track their positions and hedge their exposure to the index components. With a weighted geometric mean, hedgers need to constantly revise their hedge positions to account for changes in weighting. With the USDOLLAR’s simple formulation, hedgers do not need to revise their hedges as the markets move."""""""""""""

XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #24,360
  • Aug 15, 2013 12:43pm Aug 15, 2013 12:43pm
From beeb,

thanks mate!


GC 240 been playing the quartile to Median Line – $90 risk free in three easy moves.......

http://screencast.com/t/hdFg6MLZlk

Registration for my webinar on the 27th now open – free to all so happy for you to pass it on

https://www4.gotomeeting.com/island/...l?id=490128392

Ben from coghlancapital.com
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
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