Macroeconomic Analysis

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

IXG (data & chart); DJUSFN (data & chart); IAI (data & chart); EUFN (data & chart).
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

(charts & data)
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

IXJ -- IBB -- FBT -- XBI -- PBE (charts & data).
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sun & wind ETF: KWT, TAN, FAN, PWND.
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some main metal benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some European benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Eu MSCI Benchmarks: EZU -- EWD -- EWG -- EWI -- EWL -- EWO -- EWP -- EWQ -- EWU.

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

Keep up the good work, thanks a lot for sharing!

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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Some notes/charts about US$-Index.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: oct.2010 -- oct.2010 -- oct.2010 -- oct.2010 -- oct.2010 -- mar.2011.
❖ Main study: oct.2010 -- oct.2012.
❖ ICE Data. -- WikiData.

This post is a short review of some long-term graphical structure of US$-Index (not useful for trading).
-) Long term GraphicalContest between bearish H&S (shoulders in pink: sx 1992/1995; dx 2004/2007) vs. bullish multiple-lows (tests: 1978, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 2004, 2005), with neck at 78.5/81.5 $ about.
Head = 40 $ (+/-1) price-area; final graphical target as 41 $ (+/- 1); percentage-target, as loss of 33% from neck, 54 $ (+/- 1) about. Key level of this contest is the mid-head point at 100 $ about (see 3 red diamonds; +/- 1 $).
This contest shows a preliminar activation in bearish side during the 2008.
First important step, in order to stop the bearish activation, there will be with prices above the main red descending line; the second & more important stop there will be with prices well above the mid-level of head.
-) Giant triangle between big-red descending-line and big-blue ascending-line; bear-cross of triangle in 2004, and confirmed in 2006 (violet-area), with a final graphical target of 64 $ (+/- 2) about.
-) Percentage loss 1985-1992 = 52.7% about (165 vs. 78); percentage loss 2001-2008 = 41.3% about (121 vs. 71); if %-loss will be the same the target will be 57 $ (+/- 1); this result according to %-target of H&S & giant-triangle.
-) Interesting structural similarity between the swing 1985/1992 (see square-markers) vs. swing 2001/2008.
-) Descending line between two main tops (1985 vs. 2001, in red), shows a target of 90-88$ in 2013 and 88-85$ in 2014 !!!
-) Recent & local double-tops (2004/2005) shows a price-target of 68 $ (+/- 1).
-) Recent & local double-tops ''about in progress'' 2008/2010, will be in validation only below 74$-level, with a final price-target of 58.5 $ (see above).
-) The 2005 inside shows a bearish target of 69 $ (see also the mid-level at 86.73 $).
-) Curve in ema-format shows actual values above all the main ema (from the 2003 !!!).
-) Recent 5y structure shows an impressive game of multiple cups (a 5y compression ? A future & imminent price-decompression ?). It 's really difficult to identify the detonator of che chart from these cups.

$-Index shows an hard bearish-status until to the big red-descending.
The structural ''bearish-beast'' is the H&S (in contest with multiple-lows).
The main key-level of structural importance is 81.5/78.5 $ (contest-neck).
The main bearish levels are the followings:
74 $; 69/68 $ (see also previous posts); 61/57-54 $; 41 $.
According to the above graphical structures, we have an up-side price-detonator at 87-92 level. Prices (consistently & persistently) above this level will cause the reversal of mid-term structure of US$-Index.
Price in the 69/61-area can cause a false/fractional break of 2008-lows, on a historical basis, with a massive trap (on a historical basis).
A bearish-break of 69/61-area could cause a systemic collapse of the US$, with unpredictable implications for global financial markets.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

Forex Market is expected to witness huge volatility in the upcoming days which starts from today's US Consumer Confidence. Hold your positions and it is likely that US Dollar will witness a fall.

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Some notes/charts about Regional House Price Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some comparative curve between the house prices for some main U.S. States vs. U.S.A.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52296
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52306
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52307
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=52308
This chart is the d-Spread between main US States (averaged value for California, Florida, New York, Texas) vs. USA, of Home Price Indexes.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-26_2011-08-26

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two indicators of US Real Estate compared to family income in order to obtain and sustain a mortgage.

Housing Affordability Index (Composite). - Measures the degree to which a typical family can afford the monthly mortgage payments on a typical home. Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment. For example, a composite housing affordability index (COMPHAI) of 120.0 means a family earning the median family income has 120% of the income necessary to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80 percent of a median-priced existing single-family home. An increase in the COMPHAI then shows that this family is more able to afford the median priced home.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2011-11-24
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2012-09-26

Housing Affordability Index (Fixed). - Measures the degree to which a typical family can afford the monthly mortgage payments on a typical home. Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2011-11-24
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2012-09-26

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-08-04

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: S&P.CaseShiller -- PurchaseOnly.HousePrices -- NationalComposite.HousePrices -- AllTransactions.HousePrices -- AffordabilityIndexes.House -- Regional.HousePrices.

This post a is short review of some benchmarks of US House Prices & Indicators.
Follows the reversal-cups ''in-progress'' on the curves.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study: oct.2012.
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there is a spread (ratio-format; start of curve: 1973) between ''New Houses Sold but Under Construction'' vs. ''New Houses For Sale but Under Construction''.
The reversal of main trend has been completed with curve well above the lows of triple-heads beast (tops of 1997-2001-2003).
Moreover, the curve in 2012-2013, shows important values compared to values pre-SellOff.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-05_2013-08-05

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study: oct.2012.
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there is a spread (ratio-format; start of curve: 1973) between ''New Houses Sold Completed'' vs. ''New Houses For Sale but Completed''.
The reversal of main trend has been completed with curve well above the historical tops pre-SellOff.
We are in an important re-start of US house sector ???

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-05_2013-08-05


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study: oct.2012.
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there is a spread (ratio-format; start of curve: 1973) between ''New Houses Sold but Not Started'' vs. ''New Houses For Sale but Not Started''.
The reversal of main trend shows only a first (and important) step: the full ascending test of lows of 1997/2003.
We are in an important preliminar break of this price-zone for the US house sector ???

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-05_2013-08-05

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study: oct.2012.
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there are some notes about a contrarian indicator of US house sector: the spreads (ratio-format; start of curve: 1961) between '' Total New Privately-Owned Housing Authorized but not Started '' vs. '' New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits '' & '' Total New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started '', in order to evaluates the US Real Estate Business (see ''notes on spread indicator'' below).
The dangerous SkyRocket of curve from the lows of 1997/2002, has obtained a key-top below the previous historical top of '70. The next recent phase shows a complete reversal of curve, with values about ''in-line'' with the phase pre-SkyRocket.
According to this indicator, the recovery of US house sector is very important (???).

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-06_2013-08-06

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous study: oct.2012.
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there are some notes about the r-spread (ratio-format; start of curve: 1963) between '' New Homes Sold in the US '' vs. '' New One Family Homes For Sale in the US ''.
The recent collapse of curve at historical lows, is now totally recovered, with actual values about ''in-line'' with previous historical tops !!!
According to this indicator, the recovery of US house sector is very important (???).

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-07_2013-08-07

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous spread studies: oct.2012 -- oct.2012.
❖ Actual spreads used in this study: A -- B -- C -- D -- E.

❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there are some notes about the average r-spread (ratio-format & difference-format; start of curve: 1973) among the previous used ''by Stage of Construction'' indicators for the new Houses in US.
The recent collapse of curve shows values about ''in-line'' with historical lows in first format, but very deep in the d-format.
Now the curve totally recovered the previous historical tops; infact actual values are about ''in-line'' with previous historical tops (a little below), with an impressive SkyRocket of curve from the recent deep-low (see in particular the D-format) !!!
According to all ''by Stage of Construction'' indicators (two formats), the recovery of US house sector is very important.

R-format
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-09_2013-08-09

D-format
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-09_2013-08-09

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013.

In this post there are two versions of curve of '' Median Number of Months for Newly Completed Homes '' (start of curve: 1975).
The first format is the normal indicator in months; the second format is the ''change from year ago''.
These two formats are compared with the two benchmarks of house prices (chart III).
The liquidity crisis in the sector homes has vanished, after the recent historical top ???

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-08-24
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-08-24
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-24,2013-08-24

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about US House Sector.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies on the spread used in this post: oct.2012.
❖ Spreads used in the previous studies: B -- C -- D -- E -- F.
❖ Previous U.S. House studies: oct.2012 -- aug.2013 -- aug.2013.

In this post there is the spread indicator as follows (ratio-format & about contrarian to U.S. House Prices):
'' Median Number of Months for Newly Completed Homes (not Seas.Adj.) '' vs. '' All-Transactions U.S. House Price Index (not Seas.Adj.) '' [chart n.1: 1975 start] or vs. '' S&P Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price Index (Seas.Adj.) '' [chart n.2: 1987 start; for comparative purpose].
Actual values of curve is about in-line vs. values of this indicator in the phase pre-collapse of U.S. Houses !!!
Violet bullish-cup not validated (see previous study), according to curve behaviour well below the triple set-up (pink-circle).
The liquidity-stress inside house sector has been completely vanished !?!?!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.