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  • #781
  • May 12, 2013 10:27am May 12, 2013 10:27am

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Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility indicators.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: mar.2011 -- aug.2011.

In this post there are some CBOE volatility indicators, in order to evaluates the stress inside the stocks-market.
-) Chart I-III are about contrarian to main trend of underlyings. These indicators are the d-spread between the volatility indicator VIX, VXO or VXN vs. its 200 daily simple average.
The chart-structure shows a key low in 2012 with descending-array of tops 2012/2013.
There are not important signs of divergences vs. underlyings (see chart IV of previous post).
-) Chart IV is the r-spread between '''NYSE NewHighs-NewLows ''' vs. ''' VIX ''' (abount in-phase vs. underlyings). This indicator mixes both breadth data and option-volatility data, in order to evaluates the underlyings stocks-benckmarks from two point of views.
The SkyRocket of curve is impressive. The financial stress is very very low.
-) Chart V is the r-spread between ''' VIX ''' vs. ''' NYSE stocks > 200 d.simp.aver. '''(abount contrarian vs. underlyings). This indicator mixes both breadth data and option-volatility data, in order to evaluates the underlyings stocks-benckmarks from two point of views.
The SellOff of curve from the 2009 tops is impressive, but again a little above the 2007 lows.
The financial stress is very very low.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
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  • #782
  • May 12, 2013 3:05pm May 12, 2013 3:05pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility Indicator S&P/100 vs. S&P/500.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: aug.2011 -- aug.2011 -- may.2012.

In this post there is the spread-indicator of '''CBOE Volatility S&P100 vs. S&P500''', in order to evaluates the stress inside the S&P benchmarks.
This indicator shows important anticipatory and contrarian behaviours.
-) The main trend is in bearish status, with curve well below the 1-line (in yellow) and bearish ema-knot in all 3 charts.
-) In 2011 curve has obtained the bottom value.
-) There is a local divergence vs. underlyings in 2011/2013, with a gray-cup 'in-progress'.
-) The weekly ema-format shows a ''mostre'' double-lows, but the monthly ema-format shows a recent double-lows 2011/2012, according to long-term ema-format !!!

NOTES
According to this indicator, the financial stress is very very low inside main S&P stocks-benchmarks (complete bearish-array of curve).
A little & local alert are the ascending lows 2011/2012/2013 in divergence vs. underlying tops !!!
Actual price-action is in full descending test of important price-levels (ascending reds vs. basal gray-zones); this is a possible bear-stop zone (first reversal attempt in bullish-status) ???
A break below these price-levels can cause a new SellOff of indicator.
An interesting level is the low of 2006 (charts: long-term & monthly).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #783
  • May 19, 2013 5:26am May 19, 2013 5:26am

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Some notes/charts about Equity Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is the Bullish% indicator based on Gold Miners Index. This breadth indicator is very important in order to evaluates the internal structure of the index.
This indicator shows a complete bearish-array, with the curve now at the bottom-zone and well below the 20-25 level !!!
Until to 25-level, theri is not investing-value inside this index.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #784
  • Edited 9:01am May 19, 2013 5:42am | Edited 9:01am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Equity Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes (cfr: up-dated charts vs. chart of 2012) about some benchmarks of precious metals: D.J. Precious Metals Index (chart source: BigCharts).
This index shows a critical impact both on 50% level of 2008 inside, and on 2006-2007 lows !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
  • #785
  • May 19, 2013 6:14am May 19, 2013 6:14am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Equity Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous studies: may.2011.

In this post there is the Barron's Gold Mining Index.
In the first chart there is the total index in semilog.format; in the second chart there is the linear curve from 1970.
According to blue ascending-lines, the curve is in long-term bullish trend.
The recent SellOff is above a critical ''set-up'' zone, marked with two yellow-arrows. Above this zone the bullish trend is in play; curve well below this sep-up zone will cause the reversal of long-term bullish trend.
The important & giant cup-structure 1980-2011 is again in-play. A first sign of bearish-reversal there will be with curve well below the lows of 2008 (see set-up zone) !!!
The curve re-start the main bullish trend only above the 1980-top.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #786
  • May 19, 2013 9:01am May 19, 2013 9:01am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about Equity Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two specialized Au-based equity-indexes: USERX fund & a global index based on 48 Au-funds.
-) USERX shows an important stop of the secondary bullish-trend (started in 2000/2001).
The giant cup (1994/2011) in-progress is again in-play, with important price-effects when curve will go beyond the gray-levels !!!
Actual evolution shows the prices in full descending test of the basal gray-zone, with recent trend very bearish (see the slope of small red channel).
Curve well below the basal gray-zone can cause a MeltDown of fund-value.
Curve above the basal gray-zone is compatible with giant cup.
Re-start of secondary bullish trend only with curve well above the dotted & red line from top of 1994.
Main trend is again bearish (according to data of chart source StockCharts).
-) The ''global index based on 48 Au-funds'' shows a main trend in bullish-array, but with a secondary ''hard bearish trend'' in action, directed toward the lows of 2008, in wonder set-up (violet area) with the ascending blue line o main trend.
The structure is bearish, but values below the lows of 2008 can cause a MeltDown of index !!!
Stop of the hard bearish trend only with curve well above the top of 1987.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #787
  • May 19, 2013 2:53pm May 19, 2013 2:53pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Equity Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: may.2011 -- jun.2012.

In this post there are the followings main Au-based equity indexes:
-) Philadelphia Gold & SIilver Index or XAU.
The giant-cup (gray neck: 1996-2006) is again in bullish status, but with an important stop in 2013. Prices below the 50% of cup-space stopped the bullish action (level = 94/97$).
The Pyroclastic blue-cup (2008/2010) shows a failed bullish action in 2011/2012, with an about total reversal toward the lows of blue-cup (lows of 2008).
This blue-cup is coincident with the 2008 yearly-inside.
Very interesting levels (set-up) are marked in yellow.
All trends are in bearish-array. Prices (consistently & persistently) below the set-up marked in square-yellow, can cause a MeltDown of index.
-) CBOE Gold Index or G0X.
This index shows the same graphical structure of XAU.
-) D.J. US Gold Mining Index or DJUSPM;
This index shows the same graphical structure of GOX & XAU.
-) ARCA Gold Bugs Index or HUI;
This index shows the same graphical structure of DJUSPM, GOX, XAU, but with a little more conservative 2013-crash (test of Fib38.2% !!!).
-) Nyse Gold Miners Index or GDM.
This index is more coservative than previous indexes (e.g.: curve in full test of Fib50% and not of 38.2-23.6%).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
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  • #788
  • Edited May 23, 2013 2:27pm May 22, 2013 4:14pm | Edited May 23, 2013 2:27pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

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Some notes/charts about Au vs. Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes about the strenght of Au vs. Equity Indexes Au-based, as XAU, GOX, DJUSPM, HUI, GDM.
The main graphical elements of these indicators (H.I. or r-spreads) are as follows.
-) The indicator based on XAU, GOX, DJUSPM, GDM, shows a montre bullish-array with new tops, particulatly XAU, GOX, DJUSPM.
-) All main trend frames are bullish in indicator based on XAU, GOX, DJUSPM, GDM.
-) HUI-based indicator shows the top of 2000 >> actual top; for this reason the long-term structural trend is neutral (but see the dotted reds tremd-lines) !!!

Tha actual SkyRocket phase is very similar to 1998, 2000 and 2008 !!! These indicators are ready to a pause ???

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 638 KB
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  • #789
  • May 23, 2013 2:25pm May 23, 2013 2:25pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Equity Au-based Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes about the strength (in H.I. or r-spread) of Au vs. USERX Au-fund.
The graphical structure is the same of HUI.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg6.jpg Size: 509 KB
  • #790
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:44pm Jun 6, 2013 3:44pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about the very long-term Au vs. Dow Jones 30 Index.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes about the strenght of Au vs. Equity Index (ratio-format) in very long-term frame.
The equity benchmark is Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average Index.
The main graphical elements of this indicator are as follows (chart in semilog.-style).
-) In violet there is the band of 75% of confidence value of this indicator; from 1925 the volatility of spread shows an increase above and below of the violet bands.
-) Ascending binary-lines (dark-yellow), parallel to violet band, now are full-tested by curve.
-) Very interesting triangular structure or ''giant-diamond'', from red-square, with tops and bottoms in-line; the next top/bottom will be in-line ???
-) Very interesting monstre H&S structure ''in-progress'', from 1929 until now.
-) The level of lows of decade 1930/1939 is in wonder set-up vs. basal ascending line of giant diamond.
-) Multiple set-up zone ( see: ] ) among basal violet line vs. parallel of upper ascending line of diamond vs. dark-yellow binary-lines
Below the multiple set-up zone, there will be a probable important bullish premium to Au vs. DJ/30 until to lows of decade 1930/1939.
Blow this level, there will be a MeltDown of equity benchmarks.
Above the multiple set-up zone, there will be a probable big bullish premium to DJ/30 vs. Au, until to median ascending line of 75%-band.
Above this median-line, there will be a new SkyRocket of equity benchmarks (possible start of bullish H&S).
The possible bottom-zone of the dx-shoulder ''in-progress'' of giant H&B, is coincident with the multiple set-up & lows of 1930/1939 decade.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #791
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:23am Jun 7, 2013 4:23am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about European Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
  • #792
  • Jun 7, 2013 10:19am Jun 7, 2013 10:19am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about China & India Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
  • #793
  • Jun 7, 2013 10:28am Jun 7, 2013 10:28am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about North American, Europe & World Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-06-07
  • #794
  • Edited 2:26pm Jun 8, 2013 4:44am | Edited 2:26pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is a comparation among the price evolutions of Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes (US equity & US general) vs. CBOE VIX vs. S&P500.
These new indexes (Uncertainy Ind.) shows interesting anticipatory behaviours vs. underlyings stocks-benchmarks, but also vs. VIX !!!
In the last chart (chart n.5) we can see the price evolutions of 4 curve 2008-2009 (same colors).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-06-08
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-06-08
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-06-08
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-06-08
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-08,2013-06-08
  • #795
  • Jun 8, 2013 2:41pm Jun 8, 2013 2:41pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about spread indicators of Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: Eu Indexes -- China & India Indexes -- Europe & US Indexes -- VIX comparation.

In this post there are some notes about two new indicators based on Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes (see source).
The indicators are (both in ratio & spread formats; contrarian to equity main trend): US vs. EU Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes; US equity vs. US general Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
These indicators shows the following graphical elements.
-) US vs. EU shows important anticipatory tops & lows vs. underlyings, with actual curve in minimal risk zone.
-) Particularly impressive is the ''collapse'' post-2010 of curve US vs. EU in spread-format.
-) Both in ratio and in spread formats, US vs. EU indicator shows a local divergence 2012-2013 vs. underlyings.
-) US equity vs. US general shows important anticipatory tops & lows vs. underlyings, with curve post-2010 in bullish-cup formation, in divergence vs. underlyings.
-) US equity vs. US general mixed with VXN & DJ Volat. Ind. also shows anticipatory behaviours, with post-2010 local divergences vs. underlyings, and bullish-cup formation.
These contrarian indicators shows some local (or short-term) dangerous signs for underlyings, but an hard main bearish-trend.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #796
  • Jun 11, 2013 11:28am Jun 11, 2013 11:28am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about L.S. Crude Oil Index.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies: WTI chart-formats -- feb.2012.

In this post there are some notes about the medium & long term structure of L.S. Crude Oil Index.
These curve shows the following graphical elements.
-) Giant diamond (lines marked with ''D''), organized on the Pyroclastic top of 2008 and low of 2009, with prices near to upper descending (red) line.
-) mid-long term triangle (green & square marked), already closed in the second half of 2012.
-) mid term triangle (red & square marked), with lower line coincident with main red-ema, with apex at the start of 2014 !!!
-) short term triangle (white & square marked), with apex in the II half of 2013 !!!
-) Curve above the blue binary lines parallel to ''D''-blue.
-) Curve a little above the mid-level (91$ about) of giant candle of 2008.
-) Inside yearly 2011 'in action', with Pyroclastic impact on prices (see green columns for targets); curve a little above the mid-level (95$ about).
-) Giant priceXvolume well coincident (yealy chart) with the previous mid-levels (see gray-area).
-) Gold vs. Crude Oil shows an important continuation-bear of curve, with two descending key-tops (see red-lines), the break of main ascending (white) line, curve well below two main ema (see arrows), and curve directed toward the key-zone of top-2007 & lows 2009-2010-2011 !!!
The possible GraphicalƉetonator is the area between the two candle mid-levels 91$-95$. Prices well above or well below this area, increases the probability of a test of border-values of the yealy inside 2011 (operating levels of the yearly inside). The validation of this inside will have an important impact on prices (see the targets).

See also these charts: 1y-chart -- January Rule -- December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
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  • #797
  • Jun 22, 2013 2:00pm Jun 22, 2013 2:00pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Au vs. House Price Indexes U.S.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous studies:chart of july.2011.

In this post there are some notes about the relative strenght (spread-indicators) of Au vs. U.S. House sector, as three indexes showed on the chart.
Actual curves shows values very similar to previous top of 1980, with a local but important descending behaviour.
On the chart there are also some completed bullish cups with relative targets (gray & blue areas).
These targets now are key-levels for the first step of the local bearish action of curves.
A second step are the tops of second half of '80 (circled on the three curves).
A continuation-bear of curves toward the targets of cups is very important for an important recovery of Real Estate in U.S.
Only with curves well below these cup-targets, there will be a main reversal of these indicators.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #798
  • Jun 23, 2013 2:06pm Jun 23, 2013 2:06pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Au CoT-chart.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Previous Au CoT chart.
❖ Previous Au-studies.

In this post there are some notes about the CoT chart and Open Interest of Au, with some graphical elements on the price-curve of Au.
Commercials vs. Large Traders spread shows an impressive loss of gap of their positions, similar to 2003-2005, but with more slope !!!
CoT-spread is near to 0-line (minimum bullish net-position for underlying Au commodity).
Recent tops & bottoms of Commercials & Large Traders are in divergence behaviour vs. underlying Au (see red-markers).
Open Interest curve is inside the ascending rectangle from 2000, but with recent full-test of basal line (dangerous zone for structural trend reversal).
The key levels of 2008-2013 Au prices are the followings:
-) H&S 2008-2009 (gray-area) and its target;
-) Descending orange-channel from 2011 top, now in hard test on its basal line, with target as dotted & orange line (?-marked);
-) target of bullish double-lows vs. bearish triple-tops (dec.2011-may.2012 vs. nov.2011-feb.2012-oct.2012).
-) Weekly inside candle of 15.apr., with bearish activation in this week, and with target as showed by red-column on the chart (1148$ about).
-) Lows of 2011.
The main-trend of Au is in a critical phase, with a monstre yearly-inside 2011 ''in evolution''.
The area among lows of 2011, target of bullish H&S of 2008/2009, target of the horizontal green-zone 2011-2013, is the next Au-GraphicalƉetonator. Below this area it is important to up-date the long-term study (see also the mid-short term studies).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 866 KB
  • #799
  • Jul 1, 2013 3:07pm Jul 1, 2013 3:07pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Nasdaq Composite price behaviour.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some comparative price-behaviour of Nasdaq Composite for July.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
  • #800
  • Jul 7, 2013 4:04am Jul 7, 2013 4:04am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
ⒾM☢ ℬy $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!❣
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