XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

thats easy,...i see bull indicator-> stochastic, bolling, parabolic all pointing north.,...and higher highs... 1466 minimum.

Yes even with a naked chart I was eying up the 1550 area which just so happens to be the 61.8 Fibo area as well.
Simply amazing how fibos work sometimes, what a brilliant man! So far ahead of his time it is simply well, AMAZING!

Seems like the shorts from yesterday have been closed, NYC added 12.50 USD on close.
And now we are back in the ONE 3 THREEs again!

Market may bob up and down for a bit as some consolidation is complete..

Any one who took the 1310 zone long I mentioned should be well rewarded and happy. LOL

Now let's see how the "AUSSASIA" SESSION, reacts.

Only light news tomorrow, so if you have a nice long-
XT-

i think if the gold break level 70 on the rsi14 we will see a strong bullish move to 1450-1500

Bo do you have a chart you would like to post please?

Not everyone in this thread trades the same way so it is helpful too have a "view."

there is three levels

i think the rsi if it go above level 70 we will see a boost up that's my guess

i don't mind if anyone correct me with any other idea

This is an interesting view

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...y_To_Hell.html

Will watch the price action on Resistance zone. If I go short there I will take a small position. I would be more comfortable shorting it around 1370

before being get carried away, with the major consumer India handicapped with import curbs by RBI , will the gold play range instead of galloping all the way ?

i dont think it will be in 100 usd range...considering the 700 usd fall,, it might be in a range like 60-70 up, 30-40 down etc...till 50 fibo...p.s. nice drop today, thanks god i closed 50%, and i reenter them recently...hope for another push till the close.thx

Agreed, I was just working on some charts and the software crashed! DAMN !T !!!

Little drop there, Europe session over, LDN closing, US news report was better than forecast on consumer sentiment...
Looks like 1310 may be reinforced as support just above 1300 psychological supp. @ 1300 + people squaring Up..

If the price can hold 1300 then next week should be great for a rise to the 14s..

XT-

I added another long position at $1315 -- maybe a little soon but I had to change contracts due to futures delivery requirements. Month end profit-taking and contract expiry were probably the motivation behind this sell-off turned buying opportunity.

Now, you look at the daily (on the left) and you think, well, it makes sense for gold to fill the gap (grey box) down to previous resistance around $1297ish, the 38.2% Fibonacci for this portion of the leg down (green), and maybe I should wait until a retest of my longer-term trend lines (circle), but we're right at what is now daily RSI support (circle). Over on the hourly chart (right) gold bounced right off rising support both at price and RSI. Entry was also confirmed by five-minute RSI dropping below 20 (not shown).

With the FED, Obama, and Abe all talking ongoing or possibly increased stimulus I don't think further significant downside is realistic, but I placed a stop (What? You're using stops? Madness!) at $1312 to absorb a spike (e-micros are the devil) in case I'm wrong. [upate - moved my stop to just above break-even and placed another order at the low in case there's a spike down]



Now I'm waiting for entries into Yen pair long positions for similar reasons -- the drops in Yen pairs being end-of-week selling and with ongoing stimulus and US$ breaking support I believe most of those pairs are going up. EUR/USD as well after a bit of sideways movement first.

I just watched the DailyFX Google+ hangout (I don't know if these things are archived if anyone cares to watch it), and all four of their participating analysts are bearish on gold, looking for opportunities to sell, yet they all agree it's likely going up to the neighbourhood of $1370 before it turns around. Their bottom targets, even their most conservative targets, don't align with their own trendlines so I fear they've succumbed to their bear mentality rather than accept the reality of gold's current and long-term bull trend.

Considering they are all scalpers, not investors, why, if they universally hold the opinion that gold is going up, would they not be buying here and selling when it hits their target? That strikes me as not having much conviction in their own analysis. Regardless, when even these die-hard bears are saying gold is going up it's yet another confirmation you should be thinking about buying at this point, not selling.

Noting that we're ending the day at precisely the opening price coming from below which could mean (hopefully) another dip before rising further, I've moved my stops and buy orders up accordingly after this $20 gain from the low.

This is just another example of why I didn't bother posting all week.

Once someone is in a position the bias forms. And the cheerleading begins and only positive inputs are considered and negative ones are to be scoffed at.

I agree gold is in an uptrend - at the moment - for a little of a month now. An uptrend that has had overlapping, corrective waves though.

And it also was in an uptrend up till Aug'11.

But in between there was an almost 40% drop (approx. $740 move), remember, or what most would refer to as a downtrend.

The move off the bottom so far is $167. A good start, if it continues.

Now as always trend matters depending on the timeframe someone trades. If someone is buying to hold for multiple years than what happens years back matters. If someone is buying to flip out of it in days, weeks of even a couple of months than what happened days, weeks or a couple of months ago matter.

I want to throw my hat in the ring here and say I am looking to sell gold to new lows. I think this upmove is almost done

Olu

I think you need to re-read what I posted because it's not a very good example for demonstrating your point which I agree with in principle.

You've been in this forum long enough to know that I made more money shorting gold than I did going long, riding it all the way down with full futures positions from within a couple of dollars from the top down to somewhere between $1580 and $1600 after the first bounce in March. I stopped trading (and posting) to deal with my father's illness, and subsequently, his estate; however, I'm back to trading now, and after talking to Beeb and XTrade, I'm back to posting as well, happy to call shenanigans on anyone making unsubstantiated calls in either direction. That's why XTrade named me a senior member way back when. (Consider that paragraph my re-introduction to the new members.)

Bear-biased thinking is preventing "professionals" like those at DailyFX from taking the long positions that their own analysis tells them they should be making. The same thing happened to the analyst at FXEmpire last year who couldn't wrap his head around the rising Euro after it hit 1.21 last summer. If I let myself think that way I wouldn't be able to continue doing this for a living, never mind have enough money to take four months off or longer if necessary. You have to cast aside personal bias and trade based on the what is currently happening in the market, not what used to be happening or what you hope will happen in the future.

You can't cry foul when the opinions have changed to match the current trend. Do you honestly expect people to be making bear calls in a bull market? Why wouldn't the conversations here turn bullish when price is going up? I didn't notice you complaining about the bear-bias to the conversations here over the last few months when gold was going down. ...and I did check in from time to time just to see how bad the forum deteriorated without Beeb and XTrade and myself to keep people a little better grounded in reality.

No-one is making "it's going to hit $2,500" claims (yet) like the "it's going to $600" nonsense I've read here recently. Near-term calls of $1366, $1370, and $1415, far less than a modest 10% move, are certainly well within reason and not something that should make you feel too oppressed to post your opinion.

I do this for a living with real money -- it's not a hobby for me -- and I profit from both buying and selling futures and Forex (the only thing I don't short is stocks). Seasonally, gold has now left the selling period of July and is entering the August buying season. That, talk of easing, and the charts tell me it's time to buy. If you disagree I'm happy to see your well-reasoned opinions on the matter. In fact, one of the ways I keep myself from letting bias influence my trading is to ensure I always consider contrary opinions. I would go so far as to say considering contrary opinions is essential to successful trading, ranking it somewhere below:

1. don't trade tired (or angry or whatever your mental Achilles-heal may be)
2. never guess
3. trust your own well-reasoned conclusions
4. don't guess
5. always wait for the pull-back
6. seriously, no guessing
7. stick to your proven strategy

Gold's current trend is up, and that's not bias, it's reality, supported by trendlines and RSI and fundamentals. Will it go back down, will it continue to go up -- only time will tell, but until we get some bearish confirmation I'll continue to buy, and likewise I'll be selling if there's confirmation of the trend reversing, but the key there is confirmation, not bias.

Smart ,well thought through, and very logical answer indeed! Also, last night as I was laying in bed, the advice about not marrying a position crossed my mind as well. This week, was my first week trading a few live positions on gold. Very super tiny positions that is. I made some profit going long and short. Also, lost some and gained some back. I noticed that when people say that they think it is going up or down, that they never say which style of trading they are doing. For example if they are a position trader and have deep pockets or super small lot sizes. And say they are going long, and some newbie believes that their call is correct and then the market goes against them, they will lose money.

It would be super cool, if when someone made a call, they would say.. I am long for one week, with risking 1% or whatever... and that I am position trading so if it drops a lot, I am still safe. My account is tiny, so no position trading for me yet. But when I have a huge account and I can position trade for weeks, that will be a dream come true!

Anyways, I like your input. And just sharing some of my experience from when I first started learning. Plus learning all the time.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-07-26...-Analysts.html

S/R seen as 1280 and 1350 according to this author.

All of this debate is relevant and the concern for the newbie is honourable. At the same time, anyone blindly following calls (without timeframe) on a message forum is bound to get spanked by the market sooner or later.

I don't necessarily buy it, but a quick end to bond buying (ripping off the band-aid), could be disastrous for long positions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...96Q03J20130727