XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

See post #23998.

Little by little, I am gaining more faith in TA and less in FA.... trying to trade the larger time frames.. Daily, weekly, etc. Are my feelings valid, or does it seem like the news just helps the TA on the larger time frames to continue doing their thing?

What's your view. I am new to gold trading. Using a demo on it.

Tired. Have to reply in the AM.

Gold H1 ........ maybe

Looking forward to hearing the latest from you. Price action has consistently moved up for around two weeks. I am not asking for you to opine about my below commentary, but genuinely look forward to hearing whether you are seeing some indication of a bullish reversal in your charts.

The latest PA has been accompanied by statements and comments that the employment situation in the US has not improved enough to warrant an end to QE. Though this means nothing certain, my experience tells me that we may see another push down to shake out longs. Nonetheless, price action is exhibiting an upward bias. If this holds up, I will be very open to the Deutsche Bank position that the down trend may conclude (at some point) this quarter.

The problem with the Fed talking about basing their monetary policy on employment numbers is the fact that we have seen a consistent trend in the direction of part time, contract, or temp jobs replacing the traditional permanent full time positions with benefits (enough to raise a family). Every blip on the radar leads to companies chopping jobs because they have achieved the flexibility they have sought for so long (low paid short-term workers that can be fired without cause).

The debate on whether or not government has any place in incentivizing the creation of quality jobs (rather than the trend of instability and insecurity we have seen for nearly 30 years) obviously has nothing directly to do with gold. My opinion, however, is that if the Fed is going to continue targeting employment, it may indicate that we are in for much more QE as there are some very ugly trends in the labour market that have been in the making for a long time.

May I know which EMA /MA you are using in your chart? for colors red green blue, tq

I glad to see you are starting to take a more pragmatic approach to fundamental news and what bulls, bears and traders have to say. Good. Know what you are saying about jobs and the quality thereof but I leave that to cable tv big mouths or Lard-azz Limbaugh on am radio.

This is a tricky period at the moment. It appears the dollar has started to weaken and commodities including Gold have up ticked.

But I believe there is still some downside left to go before a bottom. Namely Wave 4 of 5 (see chart) is either complete or close to it. If this is the case it is too early to project the eventual wave 5 low. If I am right, anyway. If I am wrong I honestly don't a level at the moment that Gold would have to reach before I would change my continuing bearish position. Maybe somewhere above 1350. Need to give it some more time though.

FA (news) determines the moves over long term, TA determines entries and exits - scaling in and out or whatever. But in the absence of current news then TA can effect price to a certain extent.

What about silver now on H1? Doji, bad data from US, near EMA 50, which it could break out and near psychological level of 20 (EDITED, not 50 of course), which it could break out too.

Attachment

Source: http://www.astronacci.com/images/sto...D_16072013.jpg

I have posted my updated Gold chart for those who are interested here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post6822013

Hi all,
From today i only thinking to buy gold..........

Probably in next few hours this triangle shall be clear...............

Possibly no clarity until Bernankes statement tomorrow?

XAUUSD fell back from sellzone. I expect to see range from now on.

Jim Rogers: Why Gold Broke Its Bull Run

The legendary commodity trader explains why a popular emerging market broke gold's continued upside push.

After twelve long years of being the darling commodity, gold is finally showing signs of mortality, as the precious metal has lost more
than 20% in 2013. Though many felt the bull run, which included a dozen consecutive winning years, would continue with the Fed’s
easing policy, the metal has finally succumb to the pressures around it. While many continue to try and pinpoint the reason
behind gold’s steep drop, commodity legend Jim Rogers points the blame to a popular emerging market.

India and the Gold Effect

As Rogers notes, India is the largest buyer of gold in the world, giving them a fair amount of influence over the price of the metal. As gold continued to skyrocket in price, so too did India’s trade deficit, the largest drivers of which are gold and oil. As Rogers states, the nation can’t do much about oil prices, so that leaves gold to take the fall.

As such, India has taken a number of measures to slow the import of gold including a ban on installment credit card purchases. The first half of May saw India purchase $135 million in the first two weeks of the month, but only $36 million the latter two weeks of the month. Many economists have pointed out that if India would simply curtail its gold purchases, it would be able to alleviate its account deficit and get its economy back on the right track.

India, however, is not the only country taking measures against the yellow metal. Germany and France have notably adopted policies aimed at slowing the purchase and selling of gold, putting this commodity in quite the pinch.

Gold and the Economy

While India has certainly been keeping gold down as Rogers states, the U.S. economy has also put a lot of pressure on the metal. With equities surging and markets enjoying a nice bull run, many investors have increased their risk appetite which has left safe havens like gold in the dust.

This shifting of assets has been best demonstrated by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD) which has seen outflows of over $19 billion this year alone. For a brief period of time in 2011, when gold hit its historical peak, GLD was the largest ETF on the face of the earth. Now that gold is on its way back down, the fund has fallen to 5th place by assets, and could easily lose a few more spots before the year closes out.

for me the gold will still rise above 1300 in 1362 or 1400 and then a decline. but that goes for 500 or 600 is possible but only when the mini sp500 index hit close to 3000 points. or tou daft then I do not know. expect to see on the walk between index between 2500 and 3000 points gold will walk 500 600 or $ 800 an ounce

Xtrade where ever you are - you are needed to police these baseless, idiotic calls.