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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #23,141
  • Mar 22, 2013 4:56pm Mar 22, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Pluvius
Hmm, anyone having exceptionally high spread out of a sudden with their brokers? check out FX oanda spread for XAG/USD. Its double to tripled.
I know its the weekend and such, but usually its not this high.
  • #23,142
  • Mar 23, 2013 5:41am Mar 23, 2013 5:41am
This could be valid for gold. Need to resolve triangle (which direction to take?) by May 20th.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/601...2goldcross.png
  • #23,143
  • Mar 23, 2013 5:56am Mar 23, 2013 5:56am
Quoting ivars
This could be valid for gold. Need to resolve triangle (which direction to take?) by May 20th.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/601...2goldcross.png
What I see on your chart are a lot of lines and many triangles.
With no explanation of your chart I have no idea what you are saying.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #23,144
  • Mar 23, 2013 6:07am Mar 23, 2013 6:07am
Quoting Gumrai
What I see on your chart are a lot of lines and many triangles.
With no explanation of your chart I have no idea what you are saying.
I agree, sorry. Not right soft to edit charts a lot.

There are 2 Andrews pitchforks there, red one is downtrending, blue one uptrending.

While still in downtrending fork, there is a small uptrend forming- blue fork -if its right, gold shall continue move up until it hits the red bold line at around 1635 and move back down to the blue bold line. That is the triangle ( Oval on chart) price shall escape by taking a direction latest on May 20th ( vertical line).

If gold moves past the red bold line of a downtrending fork, it may be a breakout to higher levels, like 1675 or even 1750 in the blue fork. I do not think its likely, but if it does, these are the targets.

The rest of lines are just to confirm that the slope of forks has had some meaning in gold trending. It seems that it does.

All in all gold looks more stable then silver if both move down- as is well known form GSR behavior and difference in gold and silver volatility.
  • #23,145
  • Mar 23, 2013 7:30am Mar 23, 2013 7:30am
Quoting ivars
I agree, sorry. Not right soft to edit charts a lot.

There are 2 Andrews pitchforks there, red one is downtrending, blue one uptrending.

While still in downtrending fork, there is a small uptrend forming- blue fork -if its right, gold shall continue move up until it hits the red bold line at around 1635 and move back down to the blue bold line. That is the triangle ( Oval on chart) price shall escape by taking a direction latest on May 20th ( vertical line).

If gold moves past the red bold line of a downtrending fork, it may be a breakout to...
I do understand what you say about direction needs to be resolved. Looking to the left on your chart, last time that price was at this level, the market could be described as chaotic, absolutely no sense of direction until it broke up into reasonably clear territory At least moves are a bit cleaner this time, but the weekly candles are relatively small. I just hope that we break out of this area soon and return to the 30 or 40 $ moves that make trading gold so much fun
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #23,146
  • Mar 23, 2013 7:36am Mar 23, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Gumrai
I do understand what you say about direction needs to be resolved.
It means that until May 20 for gold we may not see 30-50 USD moves, while after that its likely to happen, almost mandatory, at least for some period of time. Of course, gold can break outside the triangle earlier, just marked May 20 as the latest conceivable date from current behavior.
  • #23,147
  • Mar 23, 2013 1:53pm Mar 23, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting Pluvius
I know its the weekend and such, but usually its not this high.
Pls refer to this link for FX oanda recent spread. For some pairs, it has tripled this weekend as compared to last weekend.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/why/spreads/recent

This is highly suspicious.

I can only guess why this is suddenly happening...( double or tripling of spreads for several pairs)
  • #23,148
  • Mar 24, 2013 4:21am Mar 24, 2013 4:21am
Quoting ivars
Silver still nicely bracketed between 2 long term daily forks. Have seen them here before, I think.

In principle, a small break up ( < 31) is possible anytime till mid April. After that there is a corner end of April between these 2 forks where is has to choose a direction which to follow. Right now its has been following up trending fork for more then a month.

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/7...ongtermfor.png

Actually these two forks were shown to me earlier by beeb who found them long time ago.

As I sort of rediscovered them by trying out trending parallels I was so happy that forgot to mention they are not mine or new

So in fact they just coincide with ones used by professionals to look after longer term trends in silver.
  • #23,149
  • Mar 24, 2013 5:38am Mar 24, 2013 5:38am
Forks - modified schiff offset on both:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAGforks.png Size: 67 KB
  • #23,150
  • Mar 25, 2013 3:50am Mar 25, 2013 3:50am
looks like not many people made any pips on gold in the last 2 weeks. rangebound indeed.
  • #23,151
  • Mar 25, 2013 7:39am Mar 25, 2013 7:39am
Quoting mark_it
I can see resistance at 1624 on the 4H GOLD chart. GOLD might try to throw itself over this level, in which case it looks like it will drop soon afterwards.

If it doesn't hit 1624 i.e. undershoots, it could drop heavily very quickly.

Tentatively long, with SL in place, target 1624.

Short on a break below 1609 whether it hits 1624 or not.
GOLD shorts from 1609 still in play, we could get a mini bounce back to 1595-1600, other than that the only support I can see is way down below at around 1581 and 1558.
  • #23,152
  • Mar 25, 2013 10:44am Mar 25, 2013 10:44am
Quoting mark_it
GOLD shorts from 1609 still in play, we could get a mini bounce back to 1595-1600, other than that the only support I can see is way down below at around 1581 and 1558.
Locked in profits. Bernanke and King could cause the markets to spike, I'm thinking the 50 day mva is a hot target so have a short order just below.

If GOLD does spike to 1626/27 I think we could come down from there pretty sharpish.

Failing the spike, it looks like GOLD could continue to tank further and in a very big way - I'm thinking below 1527 eventually.

This is my personal viewpoint - ultimately who really knows.
  • #23,153
  • Mar 26, 2013 3:18am Mar 26, 2013 3:18am
Hello to everyone.

New registered here, but started to follow forum 3 month ago.

Just lose my balance trying to figure out what is happening fundamentaly. Actually I am technical guy, not fundamental. I had gained profits with my system, but all those developments in FED, Cyprus, etc. and all those reuters, blooomberg, etc. small and big reviews, forecasts for gold and another charts; all these factors affected my trading style. As a result opposite things happened. After thinking what and where I did wrong, I figured out my mistakes and want to share with you. Hope it will be usefull for someone.

So here are my lessons for myself:

1. Don't trade on news, speeches of someone.
Last week negative news pushed down EURUSD, because of crises, while the same kind of news pushed EURUSD
up it was also because of negative news. Cyprus crises had to push price up for gold. But all we have is
spikes and other speculative movements. FED said that it will continue to print billions, somehow USD became
even stronger. So stay technical.

2. No trend, no trade.
Wait for confirmation of trend. If you wait for 4H trend, then wait for several 4H sticks to be confirmed,
otherwise it might be just spike or big doji 150 pips wide.

3. Support, resistance, range break out have to be confirmed with several sticks on time frame to each
it is related.
See #2 above.

4. Don't change your stop loss. Even if you sure that price will change in your favour, don't change your
stop loss.

5. Don't enter new order on the same chart while you have another open position which is in lose. Even if you
100% sure it will be positive.

6. Market is unpredictable. So change stop lose to break even once there is a chance. Market wants
your account to burn.

7. The last but the most important. F*ck all those reviews, forecasts of fundamental experts(!) and stick to your
own trading system. Even if you lose, lose with your style.

My membership here is junior, but have a lot of experience technically. Want to find other technical traders
for gold to share daily plans and trades. Together will be more powerfull.
  • #23,154
  • Mar 27, 2013 9:35am Mar 27, 2013 9:35am
Outside day up but only just. Two tests of 18DMA today and monday and no particular news.

Coming up to Easter Holidays. Expecting no particular direction until next week.
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #23,155
  • Mar 27, 2013 1:38pm Mar 27, 2013 1:38pm
Hello samadum,

Welcome to this forum and I hope you will add some good contribution. Well I my self is a junior trader and i should say i just begun trading properly for few months but I have been following this trading thing for almost 2 years now... well so far its been a roller coaster ride have made huge losses and still eager to learn and hope will learn things fast. Well I read your post and i agree that sometimes too much of information is killer as well...

Samadum it will be very nice of you if you can teach me to properly watch the market technically well I will be share some of my experience if there is anything but like u said you are very strong on technical then im sure i can use some help from you.... if you are willing to help then I will give you some information and I am in badly need of good advice....

if you agree then I will share some information and experience as well.... waiting to hear from you
  • #23,156
  • Mar 27, 2013 6:46pm Mar 27, 2013 6:46pm
Interesting support and pinbars in Daily SILVER, what do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag.gif Size: 17 KB
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #23,157
  • Mar 27, 2013 7:17pm Mar 27, 2013 7:17pm
Yeah but look to your left at Dec/Jan $30 resistance level.
  • #23,158
  • Mar 27, 2013 9:46pm Mar 27, 2013 9:46pm
I think, gold will make a decision soon. I think it will take his bro silver and take a look what is there at the bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5678gold.png Size: 60 KB
  • #23,159
  • Mar 28, 2013 3:03am Mar 28, 2013 3:03am
Hello brat prince.

First, want to underline that it is so "cute" to see all those fundamental experts on bloomberg and rest popular source directing traders to be bullish on gold.
Now they all just forgot their reviews and became bearish. The point is, since we are in range, both case is highly possible, so they will proudly scream how right they were in their reviews

I am small trader, for whom 30-50 pip is important. So I am interested in daily movements, not weekly. That's why we have to look for 1H and 4H charts. Let's start by identifying support and resistance for today. There is 1606.5 resistance and 200EMA pointing down at 1608. So for longs I advice you to wait until it will break these areas. Wait until 4H stick will be completed, it is to avoid spikes and dojis. As a support there is 1598 area. For short wait the same way. For proper entry wait for retracements in 1H or smaller time frames.

There is a divergence in 4H stochastics pointing also the overbought status. +1 to be bearish. But sure it is not enough for order entry.
  • #23,160
  • Mar 28, 2013 4:15am Mar 28, 2013 4:15am
Hello Samadum,

Its good to read your post... Well you are right seems like everyone is making their bluff calls and waiting if they come up true ... apart from that actually what happened is i took a buy at 1610 and was waiting when it will hold 1608 then i will book it for like 1616 or 1617 but it went down and i was hoping if its gonna go hold above 1600 but started went down and their I took a sell at 1598.81 and yesterday when I was leaving for home from work that sell was positive and I thought by the time i will get home i'll book it and wait if gold will reverse but it went above 1604 before i reached home so its kind a i am stuck in middle or no where. Now I don't know which way is more probable that gold is gonna break but I am still bearish and expecting it to go below 1598 . so any suggestion that you can give ? or what should be done now ?

by the way can you share your email so that I can share some information little privately ? so that you can get a better picture that what kinda situation I am in...

Thank you for the reply.... Take care
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