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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,941
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:22am Feb 26, 2013 11:22am
Olu

can we see ur current/latest EW chart , please ?
  • #22,942
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:32am Feb 26, 2013 11:32am
Quoting Wheels
If one does an advanced news search of the gold bull run in Google from 2001-2013, you can see how many calls for the end to the bull run have been made.

My issue is that no analyst has properly explained what factors leading to the rise in price (the MASSIVE rise in price) have changed to end this run.

Eventually gold will have to go sideways and downward somewhat, but I would expect this to be accompanied by some kind of protracted credit crunch or market downturn.

But how can these guys have credibility after repeating this call so many times?

There is more to this story unfolding. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do know that things aren't adding up

talking of conspiracy theory , Goldman Sachs says this :

Leading global investment banking and securities firm Goldman Sachs cut its 2013 gold price forecast to $1,600 an ounce from $1,810 an ounce.

In a statement, Goldman Sachs cut its three-month gold-price forecast to $1,615 an ounce from $1,825, its six-month forecast to $1,600 an ounce from $1,805 and its 12-month forecast to $1,550 an ounce from $1,800.

The bank also cut its 2014 forecast to $1,450 an ounce from $1,750 an ounce. It said gold's recent price drop and an increase in U.S. real interest rates have led it to bring forward its projections for a decline in the metal.

Goldman Sachs said while the latest sell-off is "likely excessive," it has "exposed a quickly waning conviction in holding gold positions, especially ETFs.

If that projection proves accurate, it will mark the first year gold has recorded a lower average price year-on-year since 2001, when its record-breaking 12-year bull run began, the bank said.

Goldman predicted a turn in gold's bull cycle in December, saying a rise in real interest rates on the back of improved growth could offset any further balance sheet expansion from the Federal Reserve.

http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/go...4-to-1450/4165
  • #22,943
  • Feb 26, 2013 11:43am Feb 26, 2013 11:43am
Quoting TheArcher
talking of conspiracy theory , Goldman Sachs says this :

Goldman predicted a turn in gold's bull cycle in December, saying a rise in real interest rates on the back of improved growth could offset any further balance sheet expansion from the Federal Reserve.

http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/go...4-to-1450/4165
So if one were to apply GS analysis, gold should have dropped between 2004 and 2007. Real interest rates rose and GDP rose (up until the subprime crisis). The full-blown asset purchase policy didn't kick in completely until later.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/unit...t-wb-data.html

http://pension-consultants.com/2012/...table-summary/

Again, GS is full of BS IMHO. They make entirely unsubstantiated claims and point to correlations without statistical significance of any kind. If they are correct in this prediction, it likely has nothing to do with their analysis. Chances are it has to do with insider trading and my hope is that the tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorists can unearth the corruption.
  • #22,944
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:23pm Feb 26, 2013 1:23pm
The squid always says opposite of what they are doing.

However... $1400 gold looks Juicy. $22 silver anyone?


Since I am long I hope they do not break down.

Silver is still above its multi year trend line from $8.50/oz

Just bounced off it actually

Hopefully it can hold, I'd rather not see $22 or $18, although it would just mean more profit once the metals finally do rise again.

The silver chart is squeezing against the trendline and if it can hold from here, there are some pretty big gaps to fill above $35.

$42-$44ish and $50

Below $26, there's nothing until $21-$22 (2008 highs). Then there's $18 of course, the start of the huge bull move after Jackson Hole and the breakout of the cup and handle pattern.


Will post a chart soon
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #22,945
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:30pm Feb 26, 2013 1:30pm
stop moved to 1607.

dont see enough momentum to carry it further north for the time being. might have a bit of a downmove perhaps after retest of 1620-25. wait and observe...
  • #22,946
  • Feb 26, 2013 2:21pm Feb 26, 2013 2:21pm
Gold 8h

I have a short with a tight stop on now testing to see whether the recent high will hold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold-8h-26022013.jpg Size: 103 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #22,947
  • Feb 27, 2013 4:36am Feb 27, 2013 4:36am
GSR went up yesterday a little despite PMs moving up- meaning move in gold was stronger than in silver.


GSR however it still remains within the uptrending fork and wedge , so the resolution of current price range has not yet happened.



http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/1...rforkwedge.png


From silver chart and past behavior, looks like we may have a substantial drop before moving up to form the next UP wave in the downtrending channel-if history repeats sharp bottom can be anywhere from 28, 10 to 27,5.



http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/3...silverdrop.png
  • #22,948
  • Feb 27, 2013 6:09am Feb 27, 2013 6:09am
Anticipated monthly and quarterly low breakout 1616-21 retest reached .
Question Is , how does she respond as month comes to a end ?
Her strong move up tue makes her a bit more difficult to read her if shes going south.
Like to see a monthly/weekly close above 1616-21 if shes going north.
Keep your head on a swival (if anything like yesterdays move up from 1585) while watching the 5 min
wed daily
1628
1596
1564
wed daily
29.62-70
29.04
28.47

Ok NY looks like silvers pivot 29.04 says bounce north 5 min.ago
  • #22,949
  • Feb 27, 2013 7:46am Feb 27, 2013 7:46am
I say it's bounce time. She hit that 1550. Zone
Which I suggested Not shorting into and.
So far we are back above 1600. US has
Been pumping out strong data which has hurt
The price.

View: if she can't take 1650 in coming
Weeks and blows through the support
Then you have a confirmed short.
However until such time the price is like
A ping pong ball.



Even with some strong US data we have
Only had a meager drop which to me says
More about gold than the USD in terms
Of strength.

If not in position with profit. Tread carefully.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,950
  • Feb 27, 2013 8:53am Feb 27, 2013 8:53am
BTW the stoch may embed and stay high
As the price rises.

Trade at own risk. I don't see any sure
Shots here unless you are scalping for 5 to. Ten
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,951
  • Feb 27, 2013 9:21am Feb 27, 2013 9:21am
i really like these gsr posts please keep up
The good work. also you must know the
physical game to gsr right?

when silver is stronger you dump it all
and buy gold. when gold is stronger you
Dump it all and buy silver. all the while
Accumulating metal for free. works best
With stock stuff. no numi coins or buffs
just generix.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,952
  • Feb 28, 2013 12:11am Feb 28, 2013 12:11am
Quoting XTrade
i really like these gsr posts please keep up
The good work. also you must know the
physical game to gsr right?

when silver is stronger you dump it all
and buy gold. when gold is stronger you
Dump it all and buy silver. all the while
Accumulating metal for free. works best
With stock stuff. no numi coins or buffs
just generix.
i was searching for a like Button.
loved your post.
i have learned so much from this thread.
  • #22,953
  • Feb 28, 2013 4:44am Feb 28, 2013 4:44am
Quoting XTrade
i really like these gsr posts please keep up
The good work. also you must know the
physical game to gsr right?
I know the game but only theoretically as I am new in these things.http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/1...e1gsrfeb28.png

GSR continues towards resolution of a wedge- went up yesterday after market close, but was oscillating between meaningful parallels and around trend line from earlier tops.
  • #22,954
  • Feb 28, 2013 5:08am Feb 28, 2013 5:08am
Is that EW gold idea playing out or what...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #22,955
  • Feb 28, 2013 9:38am Feb 28, 2013 9:38am
Unfortunately they don't have a like button here! But thank you I am glad.
A little later on I will make a more detailed post on how to PHYSICALLY trade the GSR.

Price down today, I am tempted to take a long "scalp" after london closes. 12pm EST

Maybe shooting for a 5 buck move.... we'll see
Quoting syedhsg
i was searching for a like Button.
loved your post.
i have learned so much from this thread.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,956
  • Feb 28, 2013 9:41am Feb 28, 2013 9:41am
Don't use EW at all so can't comment, but feel free to always post your analysis!
I don't like the infinite variables that may or may not be the correct wave count and the discrepancies
that occur when some try to discuss where wave say 2 started with point d or c or whatever.

Perhaps you might like to shed some light on that if you like

Quoting Olu
Gold 8h

I have a short with a tight stop on now testing to see whether the recent high will hold
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,957
  • Feb 28, 2013 9:55am Feb 28, 2013 9:55am
Although US prelim GDP qq was way off (below) forecast, it looks like the dip in US unemployment
tanked gold this am.....

Going to take a low risk long scalp here to test out what looks to be minor support @ 1587 targeting 1592
trade at own risk...

Think it's time for a look at the weekly PA
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,958
  • Feb 28, 2013 10:02am Feb 28, 2013 10:02am
These bursts on the hourly PA then lagging slow decent show suggest to me that gold is trying to break out but is trapped by the bears. We need a bit more follow through from the bulls.

Nice little support area we are on here. Let's see if she holds for my lil scalp.

weekly next
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 10.png Size: 91 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,959
  • Feb 28, 2013 10:09am Feb 28, 2013 10:09am
Looks like she's testing the support area - a bit more congestion on the chart below that might help, otherwise it looks like 1571 may stop...

Decision time. abandon scalp or double up lower..... not too worried. small trade///
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,960
  • Feb 28, 2013 11:56am Feb 28, 2013 11:56am
has ForexFactory discontinued the member's posts search feature ?

how can i search for my earlier posts ?
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