XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

i had just listened to him on audio. somehow, all of them is waiting for silver n gold to breakout/ rebounce from the major support line.
i bought some sliver at 28.90 for long term trading.

advices if i should increase my position??

http://postimage.org/image/5ctt65rpx/
Dun understand...who's him? Which audio or radio station?

Waiting to rebounce from the major support line....is 28.9 a major support line? I dont think so from forex charts.

U could refer to coghlan's webinar yesterday afternoon (USA time). 28.9 is not mentioned at all. In fact, gold n silver is now on a lower parallel, when they drew a fork; its out of the channel ( around 30 minutes of the session). Their advice is to stay away since its now on a lower parallel. The line didnt hold.

If u wish, a quick in and out would be idea, depending on your trading method or strategy.

Thus, I feel you should not add to ur position at this moment and wait for more news. Its risky man!

As in my image and post late last week, the time to do a long was late last week. ( refer to my post when I highlighted an opportunity for quick scalp)


I do not treat Coghlan Capital as a bible to trading but I make my own decision based on information. And my evaluation says, wait first for a sure trade. Do not bet/gamble on the direction in advance.

it is not a demo account, it is a real account. sorry to dissapoint you.

the down move was a hiccup because as i said i scale in my positions. my swing trades last for many days, i dont change directions unless iam sure market will not turn around in my favour. i predicted short (temporary move) but did not enter short myself , my swing long remained open as iam trading bullish long term. following the pin bar signalling the end of the down move and price being near support, i staked as high as i could with a tight stop, as i was pretty sure market would be moving up. so thats how i made my pips..

as an experienced trader yourself you should know that a move of 53 points is a mere hiccup when swing trading long term. sure i could have made pips on the down move, but i wasnt expecting it to move that far down to be honest. i had an emergency stop of 200 pips.

i went long yesterday on ej following the huge down move , again a swing trade. at one point price went down by over 100 pips, so i was -100 pips in the red. but kept my long position. thats the way i trade. sorry if it doesnt confirm with your ideal of the way everyone should trade. i trade my own way, iam a non-conformist !!

i have taken half my profits and moved the 2nd long to BE on gold. iam happy , i made money, thats all that matters


why do you think it is a demo account i use ? i trade stocks regularly. my favourite 'arm holdings plc'. have been long on this for a few weeks at £150 per point. a good investment thus far.

and no, i dont stake this much on fx pairs. only on commodities and stocks.

good luck

what your opinion about this...?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gol...ist=beforebell

Ever hear of the boy who cried wolf?

Really tough to believe anything GS or JPM analysts have to say.

They've been calling for a trend change all along.

Too soon to be making such calls...

gold is near support on the weekly. keep an eye on that (around 1514). i believe gold is bullish until it breaks that level. if indeed this happens, then GS are highly likely to be correct in thier forecast.

[quote=Pluvius;6474543]http://postimage.org/image/5ctt65rpx/
Dun understand...who's him? Which audio or radio station?

Waiting to rebounce from the major support line....is 28.9 a major support line? I dont think so from forex charts.

U could refer to coghlan's webinar yesterday afternoon (USA time). 28.9 is not mentioned at all. In fact, gold n silver is now on a lower parallel, when they drew a fork; its out of the channel ( around 30 minutes of the session). Their advice is to stay away since its now on a lower parallel. The line didnt hold.

If u wish, a quick in and out would be idea, depending on your trading method or strategy.

Thus, I feel you should not add to ur position at this moment and wait for more news. Its risky man!



I was refering to 26 as major support line. I normally traded eur/usd. This time round I wanted to buy silver for long term investing. I have just exited without a lost and now looking into new buy order at 26.20 normally, i would place is 10 pips below 26.00 with a sell order. However, I thought silver mechanism is different as the support at 26.00 is strongly support by industry needs, hedging currency purpose and lack of silver in nature.



I wanted to purchase at low price to keep for 1 to 5 years. please advice. Thank you for sharing.

Goldman etc prognosis...

My own thinking is long and may be influenced by the down trend since last October when QE3 was already announced, but influenced I should be as this shows that QE is not anymore seriously taken as having the potential to destabilize USG debt based money (which is basically whole world money due to practically unlimited FX exchange possibilities).

My shortterm view ( until the USG for whatever reason ignites FISCAL spending- I believe during or after summer 2013 or latest in 2014) is:
Given the new and historically unique monetary paradigm the USA has been operating on (USG treasury or debt based world monetary system) , its understanding is not complete in many circles, or its cynical nature is hidden behind some murky theories instead of telling it like it is.


So, returning to the monetary side of USD, any signs of improved USG ability to tax people despite the fact that deficit is large and debt is still growing will be interpreted as strength for the system , and correspondingly , must coincide with new lows in gold/silver prices. Again, despite the debt, whose buildup has slowed, the focus should shift to the basis of USD - the ability of the USG to enforce tax payments in USD and use them to fix deficit, i.e. reduce annual deficits-NOT eliminate- as the USG debt as total does not matter much in this system shortterm- its the doubts about the system the debt increases generate that matter. After fiscal cliff taxes are higher now. If now, with sequester, also the yearly deficit is cut, the reaction should be that trust in USG system increases and gold drops.


In short, as long as investors feel the USG and FED together has some degree of control over the USG debt based monetary system, which they seemed to be losing since 2001 - and even more so in 2010 - now when the time has passed things does not look so immediately dire anymore. The fact that FED has been saying there will be no inflation and there has not been in real things- but has been in financial assets- which FED also promised ( wealth effect) and that there has been the promised decrease in mortgage rates and interest in general- has given some credibility back to the FEDs ability to control things after wading into new experimental tool usage, and that means that when FED is talking now of exit, reduction of monetization and possible rate increase- it is also taken with more seriousness than earlier -because the waters being navigated ( One country debt based world monetary system and its crisis) is totally new in the history of mankind. Not fiat system as such, but a global one. That gives FED some bit more assertiveness and, since QE itself has failed since QE3 to raise gold prices- all this gives bearish outlook to PMs for 2013.



As I mentioned in the beginning, that is medium term prognosis as sooner or later fiscal spending will be forced to be released, and that is the real inflation threat as opposed to QE-and also the real recovery tool that ONLY the USG can utilize. Its unique situation and i have little doubt that once the FED and USG feels they can control things, they will do something more for economy (read employment) as 2014 elections come closer. Congress will SPEND (dems) or cut taxes (REPs) , or both (Both) . But not now. They have to be sure they can charge the rest of the world even more and still maintain the image of being in control of the situation in front of the USA voter and international finance. And for that, they need bit more time and theories/propaganda that support it. But no doubt inflation is in plans before 2016. Japan is now testing the model which includes also increase in military enemy rhetoric that is needed to keep population under control and increase the value of military assets.



Perhaps USG can not start spending before the new FED chairman ( or the same) is in place in 2014 as congress would want to show its prudence to voters by electing a hawk ..and then forcing the FED to do what it has to do..


From this point of view, weak 2013 for metals is possible. They can trade sideways whole year without falling out of exponential channel that was established by 2008 highs and lows, and started in 2001. Price that today would correspond to 2008 lows is about 1450 in gold. In the end of 2013- 1650. If it falls below it, the bull market may be over, but does not look likely..yet.



Excuse me the chart is from February 8, but now the gold is already below the former support parallel line, so it can go down more.



http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8093/8...50948aa9_o.png









Looking at the political side of this, once started, they will have to spend /cut taxes until 2016 elections. Only after that there can be some attempts to reduce money supply.

[quote=pangxie;6475052] Thank you for listening. As I type to you now silver is 28.65.

My goal is different from you. I do not trade that long. I should not advise you further.

But one thing I know, you were not in a good position at 28.9

Using a simpleton point of view, if I am Bernanke standing in front of them, will I say that my efforts and work were all useless and bullshit?

Or will I talk up my bullshit?

[quote=Pluvius;6475325]
=) cheers. No worries. I glad to learnt from you too. I wanted to buy silver for hedging inflation and I only purchase use 1:4 leverage. However, I trade Eur/usd 15.
Anyway, I am curious Bernanke says that fed is going to strongly defended the U.S. central bank's bond-buying stimulus. does it means that it is coming to a stop on shorting of silver? I am not really familiar with gold and silver. If my comment is silly, please forgive me. Cheers

Did u buy at the low price .65 ? My trading style is trade during spikes up n down or vice versa and close fast , I'll be out with a profit. My position will be large, short time frame with modest pip gain. Fast in fast out with large position. I'm safely out of the trade now. Regarding sequester and the bond buy back, I believe the rest have a better understanding and opinion

Can you tell newbies how big is a "large" position?

I'm long from 28.55

entry was from yesterday though, should have bought more on todays confirmation... trust, your, gut (and charts)


also long Euro for a pullback

I am using fx oanda . Xag usd 1000 units is around $700 to $800 margin used sgd with 1000 unit and a gain of 1000 pips which means from 28.65 to 28.75 , the profit is about $125. Depending on how much you have in your trading account and your appetite, you have to decide how much u want to amplify your pip gain and of course your loss. I usually trade 10000 units during spikes. I aim for a profit of 20 pips for xag jpy, my choice previously was to long against jpy. I bet u guys know why I chose to long xag against jpy previously , it's because jpy was weakening since dec by abe.

For xag usd I aim for 2000 pips depending on a lot of factors. And I go out. It's just my trading style. Factors include time of day, which session, which day, news etc. I do not keep long and more than 2000 pip, I am cautious to guard against my own greed.

For unsure trades, 1000 units is what I prefer.

I am equally newbie as all of u.

Oh right...

Thank you

aah....

my first long now in profit. both longs now in profit as things stand.

bliss....

now you see why i said 'buy buy' a few days ago ?

resistance at 1625 ?

resistance at 1620 on the hr ?

over the past couple years has been one of THE strongest resistance. Almost like a pivot point really.

1625/1630

If one does an advanced news search of the gold bull run in Google from 2001-2013, you can see how many calls for the end to the bull run have been made.

Technical indicators have said repeatedly that the bull run would end.

My issue is that no analyst has properly explained what factors leading to the rise in price (the MASSIVE rise in price) have changed to end this run. The US economy was not in a downward spiral since 2001, so the argument about the US economy seems like a weak one. Are we to believe a correlation suddenly exists where it did not previously?

Technicals have repeatedly lost to fundamentals in this bull run; so probably best to use technicals on shorter timeframes IMHO. Eventually gold will have to go sideways and downward somewhat, but I would expect this to be accompanied by some kind of protracted credit crunch or market downturn. The GS explanation is piss-poor. An improving US economy does not actually change much about the gold market outside of crooked paper trading. If they want to say the price of gold will fall because analysts have pre-determined this is what will happen (therefore, banksters work together to achieve this end to their own benefit), they can. But how can these guys have credibility after repeating this call so many times?

There is more to this story unfolding. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do know that things aren't adding up.