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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,901
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:21am Feb 25, 2013 9:21am
Quoting Max Makhija
Silver now preparing a bigger head and shoulder pattern ?
Seems like !
With Expiry in US today !
Fireworks ?

this expire will hapen on certain time or can be any time in day. please provide a little details as i dont have any ideas about futures and options.
  • #22,902
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:31am Feb 25, 2013 9:31am
Well I am in India,our expiry is on 5th March.
US, I have no idea but it should happen when market closes for the day ! ( But please check with knowledgable people)

Quoting syedhsg
this expire will hapen on certain time or can be any time in day. please provide a little details as i dont have any ideas about futures and options.
  • #22,903
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:32am Feb 25, 2013 9:32am
Gold Chart, I do not like the way it is going, this will prepare silver also for a fall, i dont know how Italian exit poll will effect though
  • #22,904
  • Feb 25, 2013 9:46am Feb 25, 2013 9:46am
Quoting Max Makhija
Silver now preparing a bigger head and shoulder pattern ?
Seems like !
With Expiry in US today !
Fireworks ?
You've now made four references to a head-and-shoulders pattern forming in silver. On what time scale are you looking?

The daily silver chart? (left) The hourly silver chart? (right)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver head-and-shoulders.jpg Size: 218 KB


Please post a chart so we can see what you're talking about because I only see patterns that have already formed.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,905
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:14am Feb 25, 2013 10:14am
Dear Friend,
I only watch 1 Minute intraday, Indian Chart pattern as I am a intraday trader and i have been passoinate about learning more and more of any kind of technical or fundamental studies.... I saw the chart on Silver doctors.com and felt that this is what is being developed, my intraday chart in silver in Indian rupees, will confuse you as Rupee started weak and ended up strong from 54.27 to 53.87 and a 1 rupee move makes a diffrence of around 1800 rupees ...
It is much more complex than trading a silver in dollars, as we are walking on knives all the times, one announcement by Indian government or any other big event sends shivers that affect the prices....anyhow....

Regards

Quoting KADC
You've now made four references to a head-and-shoulders pattern forming in silver. On what time scale are you looking?

The daily silver chart? (left) The hourly silver chart? (right)

Attachment

Please post a chart so we can see what you're talking about because I only see patterns that have already formed.
  • #22,906
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:16am Feb 25, 2013 10:16am
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  • #22,907
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:18am Feb 25, 2013 10:18am
Thanks the Hourly chart is inverted head and shoulder and the daily is the head and shoulder, thanks that chages my view point.
It makes my study today redundant but I feel that there will be no buyer on the last day of US Silver Current month expiry.
regards

Quoting KADC
You've now made four references to a head-and-shoulders pattern forming in silver. On what time scale are you looking?

The daily silver chart? (left) The hourly silver chart? (right)

Attachment

Please post a chart so we can see what you're talking about because I only see patterns that have already formed.
  • #22,908
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:31am Feb 25, 2013 10:31am
The Head and shoulder, i was talking about was based on Indian rupee 1 minute chart please note, Kindly note i will be more careful and putting things on the blog as I realise it has to be only on US Dollars base.Wont happen next time. SORRY GUYS
  • #22,909
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:37am Feb 25, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Max Makhija
The Head and shoulder, i was talking about was based on Indian rupee 1 minute chart please note, Kindly note i will be more careful and putting things on the blog as I realise it has to be only on US Dollars base.Wont happen next time. SORRY GUYS
A non-US currency viewpoint is always welcome as it provides an alternate look at what's happening; however, it would really only be useful on longer time frames.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,910
  • Feb 25, 2013 10:39am Feb 25, 2013 10:39am
I only work on 1 Minute, anyhow thanks for the input, I will keep long term posts

Quoting KADC
A non-US currency viewpoint is always welcome as it provides an alternate look at what's happening; however, it would really only be useful on longer time frames.
  • #22,911
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:37am Feb 25, 2013 11:37am
Gold formed a Double top pattern a few hours ago and came down , now it formed a Double Dip pattern and going up..what will normally happen in US expiry date ??
  • #22,912
  • Feb 25, 2013 11:57am Feb 25, 2013 11:57am
Quoting powermatrix
Gold formed a Double top pattern a few hours ago and came down , now it formed a Double Dip pattern and going up..what will normally happen in US expiry date ??
It depends. Currently there are more outstanding shorts than long positions which would imply a fall, but unless there is follow-through (i.e. contract expiry acts as a catalyst) the action is usually over shortly after early market trading for non-24 hour issues starts (4am EST). Also, the February contract is not heavily traded so it's impact should be similarly minimal.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,913
  • Feb 25, 2013 12:16pm Feb 25, 2013 12:16pm
Any ideas what the reaction to Fed's Bernanke testimony might be ?
Patience is magic
  • #22,914
  • Feb 25, 2013 12:34pm Feb 25, 2013 12:34pm
Silver contract in India closed.
My Observations:
1. There are too many shorts in Us Market and they are obviously buying albeit slowly and steadily least the price shoots up.
2. The Indian Intraday 1 Minute closed making a head and shoulder formation and just on the neckline and i expect it to open 300 rupees lower in $ terms around 25 cents.
3. Indian stock market had some stocks fall 68% today and many midcaps fell 20 to 25 % this is going to lead the Indian markets lower and make the rupee weaker as it is the Dollar is strong but the weaker Euro helps Indian rupee weaken, so if there is a weakness than the above 25 cents will be lost in terms of the Indian market.
Best of luck, Signning of for the day.
Regards
Max
  • #22,915
  • Feb 25, 2013 1:12pm Feb 25, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting Muntu
Any ideas what the reaction to Fed's Bernanke testimony might be ?
I don't believe King, Draghi, or Bernanke are expected to say anything that should seriously impact gold, but that doesn't mean gold and currencies won't spike both ways based on out-of-context phrases the auto-trading software picks up from their speeches. Of course, while virtually every currency pair made HUGE moves today, gold and silver barely moved, proving that the central banks have not yet released their vice-like grip on on the metals so it's far more likely that nothing will happen.

Also, it has become almost a certainty lately that currencies will move opposite whatever should happen based on their own domestic economic data releases followed by a reversal 15 minutes later, and though gold and silver have become unhinged from currency pairs, I'd apply that same awareness to the metals and recommend not trading during red-flag economic data and to ignore any sudden moves that don't coincide with your own technical analysis, potentially treating wrong-way moves as entry or exit points.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,916
  • Feb 25, 2013 2:01pm Feb 25, 2013 2:01pm
Nice insight KADC and others. I am a quantitative trader and find your views and info remarkable.

As i mentioned i would be back when XAU sets up with one of my setups.. a retracement after a big move.. 11 days with lower daily pivots now finally a break in trend, notice target is 38.2 fib level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 25-.2.2013 - XAUUSD H4.GIF Size: 69 KB
  • #22,917
  • Feb 25, 2013 5:33pm Feb 25, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting KADC
Actually, you posted your ridiculous claim to at 8:58am EST on the 19th when gold was at $1608, made a $2 gain, then fell over the next 36 hours to $1,555. Assuming you followed your own advice you lost a lot of money, yet at 7:41am EST on the 21st which was the next time we heard from you, you said when gold was at $1578; and you never explained how you could have been in profit from your previously stated entry for a long position which had clearly suffered significant losses.

Now you're talking about a 30 pip gain so you're obviously talking...

not at all. yes i did go long at around 1608 (?). market did fall, but my position remained open , as it was still a long signal for me. it was a swing position. market fell i entered long again scaling in my position (that is what i do). as i mentioned in my other post (i.e. i will add to my long positions). first long was a stake of £20 per point. 2nd long at the lowest low before the reversal was at £120 per point. i was 99% sure market would rise at this point, but i had a very tight stop on it as well. if my 2nd long got stopped out i would still have had my first long running - swing trade.
so you see my prediction to buy buy was accurate despite the slight hiccup on the way. the clever ones amongst you would have waited and entered long at the precise time of reversal to the upside following my long prediction.

good luck.
  • #22,918
  • Edited Feb 26, 2013 2:15am Feb 25, 2013 11:25pm | Edited Feb 26, 2013 2:15am
Quoting whatfx
not at all. yes i did go long at around 1608 (?). market did fall, but my position remained open , as it was still a long signal for me. it was a swing position. market fell i entered long again scaling in my position (that is what i do). as i mentioned in my other post (i.e. i will add to my long positions). first long was a stake of £20 per point. 2nd long at the lowest low before the reversal was at £120 per point. i was 99% sure market would rise at this point, but i had a very tight stop on it as well. if my 2nd long got stopped out i would...
Most people wouldn't consider a $53 move the wrong way a "slight hiccup", and though going long from $1,555 would have been a good move, the true clever ones were those that went short and profited from that very large move down to $1,555 then went long.

You posted that you had a sell signal, so why would you leave your long position open instead of going short? Trust your own trade signals.

There's nothing wrong with using a demo account, but you should be trying to develop real trading strategies rather than throwing unlimited play money at trades that go wrong. At $20/point you were down $102,000 when gold hit $1,555 at which point you increased your position to 600% plus added an enormous position in silver.

Gold can spike up or down in a single tick, so even assuming your stop order could be filled immediately (trust me when I tell you it wouldn't) it would only be after the move completed if gold spiked to the 100% retracement of $1526. If your stop was a market order you'd have lost another $348,000 on top of your $102,000 loss. If it was a limit order you'd have sailed through your stop and have to decide what to do now that you're down $450,000 in gold plus however many hundreds of thousands you'd have lost in silver.

Ignoring the possibility of failed stops, there's another fellow who has linked his demo account to a thread so you can see how poorly the "keeping your positions open until they are in profit" strategy works. I've shown the math here before -- it is always more profitable to close out a losing trade and re-enter at a better position than to hold onto, or worse, add onto losing positions.

I think you'll find that limiting your demo account to realistic amounts ($2,500 is ideal as discussed previously in this thread) will be far more challenging and the strategies you'll develop will be far more rewarding once you decide to start trading real money.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,919
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:16am Feb 26, 2013 1:16am
GSR continues to play with a new uptrending (PMs down) fork but seems also to have found a resistance on a parallel line to the previous downtrending fork. These to form a triangle ( marked by circle) which must be resolved either way - either break upowards along new fork, or down back to the upper line of previous fork- by March 1st.
In the meantime, if break of triangle does not happen earlier, I expect in general sideways trading in the range that in silver has been marked by 29,25 high and 28, 25 low.

Besides, today silver is crossing the death cross- 50 d MA moves below 200 d MA.
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/267...ngwithnewf.png
Yesterday previous 29,25 support acted as exact resistance, so that seems to be in place now.
Am i wrong ( as I rely on Netdania) that we are seeing significant volume increases in silver over last 3 out of 4 trading days ? What could that mean, such increase in activity in relatively flat and low place? Today with Bernanke speaking, trading can be active as well? See chart below:
http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/3...turningint.png
  • #22,920
  • Feb 26, 2013 1:38am Feb 26, 2013 1:38am
Good to caution. Impact may be indirect. For instance if he says the fed intends to throw some more billions $$$ in the economy, we might see gold react to that. I always wait at least 30' after any important release anyway.

I don't follow the Pound at all, so don't know the effect of King's statements, but the 2 others' talks do shake the markets at times.


Quoting KADC
I don't believe King, Draghi, or Bernanke are expected to say anything that should seriously impact gold, but that doesn't mean gold and currencies won't spike both ways based on out-of-context phrases the auto-trading software picks up from their speeches. Of course, while virtually every currency pair made HUGE moves today, gold and silver barely moved, proving that the central banks have not yet released their vice-like grip on on the metals so it's far more likely that nothing will happen.

Also, it has become almost a certainty lately that...
Patience is magic
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