XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

any impact? enjoy

My Opinion: Yes we are near bottom. As Kadc said 1555 may hold, but I see long term consolidation between 1540 and 1780. Draw the fib from Jan'11 (1308) to Aug'11(1911) and you will see that 1540ish is the 62% retrace level and 1770ish is the 23%.

Now as I type price is up from 1555 last night to 1574 which not a huge bounce but respectable. Last night when I checked we are outside of the bolinger bands, Monthy MACd is turning negative (which it has not done since '08). Right now I am looking for a dip down to the 1563 area to go long. Unemployment #'s are up.

Also, for anyone interested in QE3 and it's effects on the economy, check this out.
http://thearorareport.com/coaching_s...qe3_x264fs.mp4

well, my charts are showing sell mode again. we could see another dip coming. still holding longs, if it dips then better position to enter more longs....

Strange, today bear decided to rest?

whatever i choose. it always move 180 degree lol. so if i choose bear. u guys should choose bull

as for my previous post - at least one wave down is expected. EW count shows that we`re building w4. w3 was extended so w5 should be rather small. w4 can be tricky so be careful

Please don't take this too seriously. Just fun to play with charts. Using Fibo timezone 9/11 to now, and the most consistent multi-year trend lines, I made this chart to have a look at major events and their interaction with price action. Not precise - just an interesting way to look at PA since the start of the bull market (clearly marked with 9/11). The latest range does look like a downward slope with the next phase a leg up, but has QE ended? Is all future QE priced in already? Hard to say what the unaccountable will decide, but my bet is that the Fed's insistence to intervene to stabilize markets will be a factor. Hard to imagine these guys crashing the price, but it could happen. Just like they could very well take us up above $2000. It will be "paper" or electronic transactions rather than physical markets, but I stand by Scientific American's assessment of precious metals rather than some *^& eating grin analyst with a financial stake in how market participants respond. They lie, and lie again.

GSR made an obvious break up.

Coud be 57 in sights ( silver 26, gold 1480) by mid March.

http://goldprice.org/charts/history/...nth_silver.png

And GSR just might be entering a new fork with 57 at median:

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/9...ge5newfork.png

I used to have that problem, and I could swear there had to be some kind force working against me because pure chance should give me at least 50/50 odds of making a profit. You shouldn't need anyone to tell you this, but you need to change your trading strategy.

DailyFX did an analysis of tens of thousands of trades by retail investors over the course of a year and found that the vast majority of trades are wrong, so they developed the SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) strategy whereby when you see overwhelming trade volume in one direction, you take an opposing position using ATR as your stop loss. You must be a premium member to access their SSI but free retail investor sentiment is available on many sites that provide real-time technical analysis. I use extreme sentiment to determine when there will be a market reversal, though I initiate actual trades based on RSI signals.

Thats cute-its free on Thursdays:http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/sentiment

I can use it to trade against myself In reality it confirmed my recent outlook on gold on gold and silver ( since 30,4 silver) but without this SSI I was not sure about taking position. That is really helpful, thanks KADC.

thx. and i agree. about atr . can u teach me on how to use it for gold? i try it once. but it seems the number is very high. my current atr has a value 6.2500 .dunno how many pips that is.

I'm afraid I won't be much help here. I only mentioned it before because the DailyFX analysts use it in their SSI strategy and they've done enough testing for me to trust their suggestions; but I've never been successful at incorporating it into my trading strategy. In my tests I've found it far too small an amount to be useful.

I can tell you that using ATR as your trailing stop amount is only useful in specific breakout or breakaway trading strategies, and even then I'm not sure how useful it is if your trading software doesn't allow your trail to change dynamically with ATR. There's probably an article on DailyFX or Investopedia or StockCharts that can give specific examples of when and how to use ATR effectively.

Looking at the hourly chart for gold (which is what you're using if you saw ATR at 6.25), the likelihood of being stopped out before price action moves in your favour if you use ATR as your trail amount is nearly 100% in most circumstances. Even in the least volatile time period (highlighted pink) in this chart, the greatest ATR was 2.5 but price action ranged 3.5, stopping you out twice as indicated; and where ATR was between 6 and 6.85 (highlighted in green), price moved greater than that more than a half dozen times. Only when you enter a contrarian trade based on extreme SSI at just the right moment does ATR work as a trail amount as far as I can tell.

If you'd been using Donchian (price) channel break-away strategy, placing your stop one pip above the channel indicator on any day in this chart you'd never once have been stopped out. Of course, you need an exit target with this strategy, or alternately you could use the width of the channel as a trail with your initial stop one pip above the channel indicator but I find that a bit too large of trail for my liking. I've heard people say they use ATR to set their trail amounts in Donchian strategies but you're still extremely likely to get stopped out before you make a profit.
...perhaps you're supposed to use the ATR from a higher time scale?





What I prefer (though I have to do it manually with my trading platform) is trailing jump-stops (I can't think of the proper term at the moment ...it's long past my bedtime) where you use a wide trail, such as with the Donchian channel strategy above, but every time price moves a fixed amount (every 250 pips for example) the stop jumps to 50 pips behind the price action but your trail amount doesn't change, giving you the advantage of a wide-ranging trail while still locking in profits at fixed increments. Perhaps ATR could used here to set the trail distance when a jump is triggered.

1555 visited...

vix was high...allien came?

does anyone know, alliens buy gold or sell gold?

allien can answer this, too... any allien hier?!...

what about question... no idea?
(no idea, but yes forex...)?

Thur.silvers retest of wed feb lows breakout 28.87 area noted.
Thur. Retest of golds weekly breakout 1585-87 area noted also.
fri.daily
1616
1585
1553
Bounce up noted @ 1573 to start fri lets see how 1585 responds 0n the 5 min..
fri daily
29.90
28.90-99
28.12
Bounce up @ 28.55 area noted.
eyes on daily pivot response

keeping a pulse on the trend.

with an eye on the new 2013 yearly time frame the primary trend guide 1665 pivot area and its extending south and breaking out of the lesser trends projected lows ( daily, weekly, monthly ) along with the secondary trend the quarterly snd its lows 1616.( We will have eyes on our monthly close and 1616)
We next have the single year time frame lows 1532 as next support although we still watch her a day and week at a time..
single year
1794
1663-65
1532

3year
1984
1532-42
1108

quarterly silver
35.23
30.60
26.00

gold is heading south however watch out for a pull back when the UK tells u the recession has hit again