XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Will Gold bounce at the round number 1600?

I'am long gold from 1599 and exit at 1754, let's wait and see....

It looks simple for me as well, 4 silver positions so far, all in profit, 3 of them 100 pips each... but it looks too simple.
If today wouldn't be Friday, I would go long now...

Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 2/15/2013

By Ryan SchwimmerFebruary 15, 2013

G20 STATEMENT LEAKS; GOLD AT SIX-MONTH LOW
Gold and Silver prices are adding to losses this morning as reports of the Group of 20 nations statement have leaked. According to a draft statement, the G20 will vow not to devalue currencies in a competitive manner (like the “currency wars” that have been buzzed about lately), and also to monitor “monetary-policy spillover.” Historically, devaluing currencies have been bullish for the Gold price. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Widmer said, “People are certainly looking at the G20 meeting and the statement, as currency talks may become a strong focus for the Gold market going forward.”
The Gold price hit a six month low this morning, and MKS Capital seems to have an explanation. “The market now seems to be getting used to the more positive frame of mind of a recovering U.S. economy, which entails lower probability of continued [quantitative easing] and in turn a lower Gold price,” the firm said in a note. One key factor in recent price movements is that the euro is weaker against the dollar, which has typically resulted in a falling Gold price.
At 9 a.m. (EST), the APMEX Precious Metals spot prices were:

1. Gold, $1,615.00, Down $21.40.
2. Silver, $30.05, Down $0.36
3. Platinum, $1,680.10, Down $30.80.
4. Palladium, $756.10, Down $8.90.

http://www.apmex.com/Commentaries/17...2-15-2013.aspx

Au Ag

this slow downtrend for the shorter is like giving food to dog ... i protest this trend, which is unrespected...

If the low today had been the "bottom" that the banks and cabal are waiting for the price would have sky-rocketed immediately, so there is yet further downside for gold. With bull channel support clearly breached, a test of bear channel support is next with a likely target $1585, the 78.6% retracement of the range from May to October last year, and would complete the last downward leg of an Eliot wave cycle before resuming upwards.

RSI is nearing daily support and not far below that is the 2012 RSI low so further downside without first testing bear channel resistance is unlikely (though always possible). To punch lower right away would require a fundamental catalyst (G20 putting a moratorium on fiscal easing for example -- extremely unlikely) which would put the 100% retracement to $1526 on the table, but if that were the true target gold wouldn't have puttered around sideways at this level for so long.

1595 is the was the last station of my pivot...

after staying 15 hours under 1642 (with day close) is it down...

I had a better example but my system locked up before I saved it, so I'll just use your image. I would go back at least 300 time units to get the high and low RSI. Similarly, there may be a better longer term support and resistance if you go back further. Like price-action trend-lines, support can become resistance and vice versa (though not in this case).

RSI should only be used as the primary trigger when it is near an extreme end of its range. An RSI trend-line breach mid-range is only useful for confirming other analysis. Note that unless there is an accompanying increase in volume on the first RSI trigger it is usually the second hit of RSI support/or resistance that gives you the true entry/exit point as demonstrated in your chart. You can see that the first trigger initially worked out but was followed shortly thereafter by a better position. The subsequent trigger at the bottom was the best point to buy but a second opportunity near the same price point was given when RSI support was tested again which is also common.

An awareness of where RSI is in other time frames as well using other indicators will help determine when RSI is giving a "legitimate" signal. Alternately (or additionally), place a stop at break-even immediately upon price going in your favour with a second order entry ready at the next likely price target as determined by Fibonacci or trend-lines, etc. in case your first entry doesn't hold.

prototip discovers a big Question...
which way?

well .. u are the expert ... tell us !

i don't know .... but it may be a coincedence ....

while browsing around for news on gold .... stumbled into India's MCX and at the same time was glancing casually at the USD/ indian rupees chart ....

despite the accerlated drop in gold in USD , the price in Indian Rupees for gold did not show any vast disturbance , while the USD/Rupees shot up .... can it be that Indian Govt had pegged their Rupees to the Gold ... in other words , have they reverted to Gold Standard ... ? was that the buzz when their Finance Minister added a few points of tax on the Gold import ?

George Soros is bearish on gold - http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/15/inve....html?iid=Lead

Anyone knows how much is it to mine gold? 1500? Has it risen up due to higher operational costs bleah or has it gone down due to new, improved technology bleah?

We could use that as an estimate? I believe that the price of something will not be lower than the expense to produce it. Of course shit happens, but it should be a good guide. Anyone of different opinion that the expense to produce gold will be higher than the price? Also, it will be counterproductive if the price and expense are too close.


Ok, sources revealed Soros short the yen some time back (I did it too in early Dec 2012 before BOJ confirmed it and Abe officially sworn in). They also revealed that Soros released gold late last year. What is their agenda for releasing such information after the deed has been done long ago? Are they trying to throw us a bone telling us that we should short gold and short yen to earn profits now? If that was the case, they would have declared that few months back. No free lunches and good heart-ed billionaires giving trading tips in this world I believe.

On the contrary, such news should be treated with pinch of salt. In the past weeks, JPY did not further weaken. In some pairs, it strengthened instead. I had long something against JPY. I realized my long position was near the top as the bottom went lower after the ECB meeting that Draghi said something to make euro drop ( wow, I didnt noe ECB meeting involved the Japanese whom were sleeping at that timing, they followed up with a conference saying it weaken more or faster than intended the next day.Its kinda bullshit if you think about it that Euro dipped the same time as JPY went up last week). JPY might slow down its weakening until the new BOJ governor comes in March or G20 G7 arranges something. In fact, I think it already did for the being. Soon after, the news released that Soros short the yen when the yen stopped weakening. If one were to follow the news on what Soros did, he/she is just chasing something that has passed.

Mirroring it to the source that said Soros released some gold, using the same logic and personal experiences, I truly question their purpose. Are we having good billionaires Samaritan telling everyone to short gold and make our profits (I remembered in FF news section, they quoted other people who released gold)?

Thus, hope if anyone knows how much is it to mine gold per oz? Part of my simple guesswork over here as to the direction if it will go up or down.

If indeed, it is now time to short gold as per the news try to imply and I missed it, I am glad with myself as it is through my own reasoning to avert being manipulated that I missed it.

My way of thinking may be too honest...

George Soros Effect ?

last quarter SEC said George Soros bought gold , after that gold got bullish and rode up.

this quarter SEC said George Soros had sold his gold, therefore the price of gold dropped

we mere mortal get to get SEC report quarterly . we mere mortals are not aware of what George Soros does in between the quarterly reports. on hindsight, it seems some people are privy to this information. Is this why some had been saying in this forum of the drop to 1550 or 1500 ?

now that George Soros factor is out of the way , will the real QE effect take place , ie price of gold in USD rise again due to diluted value of USD ?

by the way , will George Soros ride the bull up again ? alas, we will only know of his holdings and dumpings in the next quarterly SEC report.

a scenario...

if i remember correctly, prototip said 1300. check his past posts

too terrified to make guess if up or down at this point !!

red lines broken, time line perfect...