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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,621
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:56pm Feb 5, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting lilpip
One thing I've learned is not to question why price does or does not move a certain direction in response to
news but to remember whose market it is as they maintain control by manipulation.
Eyes open.
LP Good to see you posting again!

Thank you for the contributions!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,622
  • Feb 5, 2013 3:57pm Feb 5, 2013 3:57pm
Interesting charts, notice Argentina!

Emerging Markets! Watch out!

Could be a mine in no time!
Quoting thodie
Source picture 1: http://www.silverstrategies.com/stor...cal=1&id=38557

Source picture 2: Metals Economics Group, Intierra und Barrick
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,623
  • Feb 5, 2013 8:29pm Feb 5, 2013 8:29pm
A reasonable summary of where gold and silver are at by The Gold and Silver Speculator.


http://www.danielstrading.com/advice..._2013-2-05.pdf
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,624
  • Edited 9:36pm Feb 5, 2013 9:16pm | Edited 9:36pm
reams and reams of analysis are out in the open .

what is the bottomline ? will it be a bullish breakout of 1700 or bearish breakout of 1640 ?

how will the orchestra conductor wave his baton ? up or down ?

by the way, who is the conductor in charge of gold ?
Attached Image
  • #22,625
  • Feb 6, 2013 4:22am Feb 6, 2013 4:22am
GSR and gold yesterday behaved exactly as expected, if belatedly after wild intraday oscillations we are all used to now, so today GSR should move up ( possibly silver down or both PM down) , but not much, as ideal triangle painting continues.
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/...nth_silver.png IF there is no premature outbreak, the triangle has to resolve on Friday in some direction, latest Monday night , so watch out. It looks like a continuation pattern down, but there are 2 trendlines fighting, and its moving away from fork median ( below):
http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/395...erfeb6th20.png If it does break up first from triangle, resistance lies around 200 day MA for silver, which is 30,63. 31,65 is very important support today. Because of the 4 h fork below -the parallel line support - that has been working now perfectly since Jan 28:
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/1148/image001mc.png
  • #22,626
  • Feb 6, 2013 9:45am Feb 6, 2013 9:45am
Quoting ivars
GSR and gold yesterday behaved exactly as expected, if belatedly after wild intraday oscillations we are all used to now, so today GSR should move up ( possibly silver down or both PM down) , but not much, as ideal triangle painting continues.

pardon my stupid question ... just how do u play/forecast/predict for gold or silver with the gold/silver chart
  • #22,627
  • Feb 6, 2013 10:05am Feb 6, 2013 10:05am
Quoting TheArcher
pardon my stupid question ... just how do u play/forecast/predict for gold or silver with the gold/silver chart
99% of cases if GSR goes up(down) PMs go down (up) because silver always make bigger moves in % due to its higher volatility. There are some cases when its not true, but very very rare. Then I add observations on each metal separately, as there might be cases like yesterday when silver moved up at close, but gold down (compared to day before), so GSR was reduced despite gold going down a bit.

What i like about GSR is that it includes both metals at the same time, and in some cases like now its technical picture is much more clear then silver or gold separately. The triangle is perfect, and which ever direction it is broken in next few days, PM behavior will also be clear short term.
  • #22,628
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:43am Feb 6, 2013 11:43am
Quoting ivars
99% of cases if GSR goes up(down) PMs go down (up)

in other words : GSR has inverse relationship with gold/silver , just like ,if dollar up then gold down and vice-versa ... am i correct to say this ..?
  • #22,629
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:44am Feb 6, 2013 11:44am
Quoting lilpip
Feb Monthly pivot area 1684 kicks her south.
Looking at the weekly
1695
1671
1650
Keeping an eye on PA within the trends.
Looking at the monthly pivot 1684 area and her bounce south tuesday was noted.
Yearly pivot area 1665 bounced her north.
While awaiting a break of weekly highs or lows and its confirmation along with trying to keep a pulse on her we look for clues from PA on the intra day .
A breakout on the daily is a heads up
wed. daily
1685
1673
1661
Sis may give some clues also eyes on weekly and monthly pivot area 31.52-62.
  • #22,630
  • Edited 12:35pm Feb 6, 2013 12:12pm | Edited 12:35pm
ascending triangle ... bullish ..?

1677 + 35 = 1712 ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold0602.png Size: 20 KB
  • #22,631
  • Feb 6, 2013 3:35pm Feb 6, 2013 3:35pm
Here's this week's Kitco News interview with Gary Wagner. Not much has changed ...still looking for the breakout of this compression triangle (starting about halfway through this video). Basically the same analysis as The Gold and Silver Speculator (and pretty much every other metal bull) so keep in mind the bull bias.

Inserted Video
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,632
  • Feb 6, 2013 4:09pm Feb 6, 2013 4:09pm
I went long on platinum last summer when it had diverged below gold in August and added more platinum when it again diverged lower in November. After returning to mirror gold until January it did what I had expected gold to do and shot up to $1731. As platinum and gold have been mirroring each other (in scale, not actual price) since gold's $1,900 high in 2011 (though they don't on longer term charts) I believe the comparative level of near $1,800 reflects the "natural" level gold would be at were it not being suppressed and is where I would expect it to go once the central banks let gold off its leash.

Regardless, I'm still waiting until a dip after the breakout for gold (or a major dip beforehand) for mid-term buy-and-hold as I'm having too much success scalping Forex pairs to deal with the current gold nonsense shorter-term; however, I'll buy more long-term investment silver on the next major dip. I won't buy more platinum until gold catches up and it diverges lower again.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: platium vs gold.jpg Size: 410 KB
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,633
  • Feb 6, 2013 8:49pm Feb 6, 2013 8:49pm
hmmm ....

once , they pumped up oil prices ...

then , they played up gold ....

then came silver

and ... now they are playing up platinum .... ?

maybe this is one way to 'generate' income for themselves .... and fleece the innocents of their savings ...

i wonder ... hmmm
  • #22,634
  • Feb 6, 2013 9:05pm Feb 6, 2013 9:05pm
will people dump gold and chase after platinum ..?

will that mean gold price will drop ..?
  • #22,635
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:12pm Feb 6, 2013 11:12pm
Bulls will take 1700 .

Quoting TheArcher
reams and reams of analysis are out in the open .

what is the bottomline ? will it be a bullish breakout of 1700 or bearish breakout of 1640 ?

how will the orchestra conductor wave his baton ? up or down ?

by the way, who is the conductor in charge of gold ?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,636
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:16pm Feb 6, 2013 11:16pm
Platinum is a VERY different metal with HUGELY different fundamentals than GOLD.
To start it is not considered a "worldwide" currency.

Go to the depths of an underdeveloped country, put a piece of gold in the persons right hand and silver with PT in the left, or vice versa, they will not know the difference. Yet they will know how much that lil' piece of gold will buy them at the market.


Quoting TheArcher
will people dump gold and chase after platinum ..?

will that mean gold price will drop ..?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,637
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:18pm Feb 6, 2013 11:18pm

Quoting TheArcher
u are right .... you didn't say anything about breakout in your message.

i was looking a ur Xmas tree and thought it looked like a symmetrical triangle ... hence my query of what u are expecting the chart will do .... move up and breakout on the upside or break down ?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,638
  • Feb 6, 2013 11:26pm Feb 6, 2013 11:26pm
EDIT: to answer the question, a huge move out of gold into platinum may shift the price but, you would have to read about pt fundies, ie: catalytic converters, car production, surgical metals, and the BIG BOY which TRUMPS them all the mining WARS! The majority of the WORLD output of Platinum is in South Africa. Silver actually happens to be a byproduct of PT mining.

Look up an SA daily news with PT mining in the text and see what u get.

Quoting TheArcher
will people dump gold and chase after platinum ..?

will that mean gold price will drop ..?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,639
  • Feb 7, 2013 12:18am Feb 7, 2013 12:18am
Quoting TheArcher
in other words : GSR has inverse relationship with gold/silver , just like ,if dollar up then gold down and vice-versa ... am i correct to say this ..?
In essence yes but GSR is even more realiable in such relation, USDx (DXY) PM relation is not always true. Sometimes all fiat dips vs. Gold just at different rates with USD being the slowest dipper, so USDx (DXY) can increase, and gold price in USD as well. That is just natural, as all fiat shall lose value vs. gold long term as long as debts accumulate, but it happens in periodic moves, not all the time.
  • #22,640
  • Edited 12:31am Feb 7, 2013 12:23am | Edited 12:31am
Quoting TheArcher
will people dump gold and chase after platinum ..?

will that mean gold price will drop ..?
The point of the platinum and gold comparison was to show that they have a history of moving in tandem and that there are other vehicles related to the movement of gold that one can profit from while gold is going nowhere. Additionally, if one believes that platinum and gold will return to moving in tandem, either gold will rise up to the level of platinum or platinum will fall back to where gold is -- personally, I believe the former is more likely.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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