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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,581
  • Feb 1, 2013 4:27am Feb 1, 2013 4:27am
Lets see if this short term fork can take over for some time with NFP coming:
Last 7 days it has been working.

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/9...e2hopefork.png
  • #22,582
  • Feb 1, 2013 5:25am Feb 1, 2013 5:25am
Quoting lilpip
Weekly close says no to confirmation as silver rotates back from its weekly highs 32.40-50 area below 31.33 and gold rotates back to jan monthly pivot area 1705 and extends back south of 1665-7 as both acting like they want to continue south.
Eyes on weekly pivot areas and monthly close.
weekly
32.47
31.17
29.87
weekly
1693
1666-67
1639
Ok NY bulls what ya gonna do? Were is our close above yearly pivot 1666 and 31.33 ?
  • #22,583
  • Edited 7:24am Feb 1, 2013 6:16am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting Mohamed332
this is a battle between long term up trend line, and down price channel, we have to wait... what do u think?
Your channel is a picture of the quarterly cycle the secondary trend
Quarterly
1799
1665
1531
Rotation Back from jan pivot 1705 area this weekly highs 1693 area back to weekly pivot area.
More importantly the 2013 yearly pivot area 1666, which ever way she breaks will probably be for the month maybe qtr.
  • #22,584
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:35am Feb 1, 2013 7:35am
it says less jobs were created than expected

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=408118
  • #22,585
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:46am Feb 1, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Pluvius
it says less jobs were created than expected

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=408118
means rally for gold ?
  • #22,586
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:53am Feb 1, 2013 7:53am
Quoting elekboy
means rally for gold ?
From what I understand, if it only creates 157k jobs in Jan 2013, economy is not as good as expected. They expected 175 k jobs to be created. Unemployment rate went up by 0.1% concisely.

Well right now, it happened to shoot right up the moment the news was revealed from the area of 1663 area to 1673. Referring to the 1 minute chart, its an instant +$10 for XAU/USD.

Lilpip was speaking about a pivot point at this area in an earlier post that could last a month or a quarter.

I am not sure what to make out of it, but as I speak this, it really shot up.
  • #22,587
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:57am Feb 1, 2013 7:57am
I guess NFP were bad? No, the unemployment rate INCREASED as more people search for work again. That will happen for a few months now.


For time being, it has played in hands of PMs, now coming to certain fruition:


1) USA GDP was down -0,1%, indicating more difficult fiscal position tax wise (relative to increases reached by Fiscal cliff solution)
2) Debt ceiling was raised by about 450 billion
3) Unemployment increased to 7,9% ( QE is tied to this number)
4) Americans no longer supported by bank insurance scheme are converting quite a lot of USD in PMs.


This shall provide support for some time until sequester/budget negotiations start in earnest.
  • #22,588
  • Feb 1, 2013 8:06am Feb 1, 2013 8:06am
Quoting ivars
I guess NFP were bad? No, the unemployment rate INCREASED as more people search for work again. That will happen for a few months now.


For time being, it has played in hands of PMs, now coming to certain fruition:


1) USA GDP was down -0,1%, indicating more difficult fiscal position tax wise (relative to increases reached by Fiscal cliff solution)
2) Debt ceiling was raised by about 450 billion
3) Unemployment increased to 7,9% ( QE is tied to this number)
4) Americans no longer supported by bank insurance scheme are converting quite a...

This rise in prices seem fair enough.

Anyone else feel bullish at this moment?
  • #22,589
  • Feb 1, 2013 8:24am Feb 1, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Pluvius
This rise in prices seem fair enough.

Anyone else feel bullish at this moment?
starting rally now......
  • #22,590
  • Feb 1, 2013 9:18am Feb 1, 2013 9:18am
Quoting prototip
i didnt tell about any breakout in my message ...
u are right .... you didn't say anything about breakout in your message.

i was looking a ur Xmas tree and thought it looked like a symmetrical triangle ... hence my query of what u are expecting the chart will do .... move up and breakout on the upside or break down ?
  • #22,591
  • Feb 1, 2013 7:58pm Feb 1, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting TheArcher
u are right .... you didn't say anything about breakout in your message.

i was looking a ur Xmas tree and thought it looked like a symmetrical triangle ... hence my query of what u are expecting the chart will do .... move up and breakout on the upside or break down ?
no idea, but everything is possible...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,592
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:08am Feb 2, 2013 12:08am
Gold is in quite a tight range but overall I'm long Gold for next week. Looks like strong support around 1650
  • #22,593
  • Edited 10:35am Feb 2, 2013 2:31am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting prototip
no idea, but everything is possible...


((( Perhaps Admin should look into this ... I am unable to read previous posts under the Usersname ... hence unable to Quote for the following )))


if I recollect correctly , you mentioned in one of your posts that the price of gold will drop to 1540 (or thereabouts ) in the next 6 months ( ...around the time we were having fun with the Xmas tree pattern )

is your view still intact .... is this based on Fundamental or TA .... ?

looking forward to your reply

----------------------------------------
edited:

..... or am I confusing it with vaidas777 's claim ....


Quoting vaidas7777
Enjoy the ride till 1500 - 1570, silver 27 in six months.
Attached Image
  • #22,594
  • Feb 2, 2013 12:09pm Feb 2, 2013 12:09pm
Made silver and gold forks on long term log charts (the idea is the same-median but for exponentially growing price). Put in parallel lines. Looks quite clear-the support line has been hit twice now , price has to continue moving up to median for silver:

http://imageshack.us/scaled/landing/...verlogfork.png

Gold:

http://imageshack.us/scaled/landing/...oldlogfork.png

Just to keep track on a long term perspective. It has not been damaged, the downside is much less than in 2008. And in silver, it seems to be finding support just below median, hitting the line twice.
  • #22,595
  • Edited Feb 3, 2013 2:46am Feb 2, 2013 1:22pm | Edited Feb 3, 2013 2:46am
weekly 100 MA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,596
  • Feb 3, 2013 3:05am Feb 3, 2013 3:05am
weekly 100MA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold0302.png Size: 17 KB
  • #22,597
  • Feb 3, 2013 1:42pm Feb 3, 2013 1:42pm
Hi guys,

What can you say with this chart?

There is a trendline started around May 2012, and resistance November 2012.


willl it go up or fall down and why ?

I d like to read your comments ...

Brother from Turkey,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4 long term.jpg Size: 152 KB
  • #22,598
  • Feb 3, 2013 11:48pm Feb 3, 2013 11:48pm
Quoting hbkarakas
Hi guys,

What can you say with this chart?

There is a trendline started around May 2012, and resistance November 2012.


willl it go up or fall down and why ?

I d like to read your comments ...

Brother from Turkey,
I have seen it as lower highs and higher lows for a long time. The range will be small.

If you wish to long from a low point, be prepared to close positions at a lower high (earlier) than the previous peak you see
Vice versa, if you wish to short from a high point, be prepared to close at higher low ( or earlier than estimated).

Cross refer to XAG/USD. Have you seen its bottom reaching 29. something again? Nope. In fact, it did not reach 30.0 as some websites are hoping they say it will reach because they wish to buy at 30.0. The last descent was only up to 30.7 in late January. Similarly, the high of XAG/USD gets lower.

When it converges, something big happens, of course this is subjected to global and fundamental news too.
  • #22,599
  • Feb 4, 2013 8:13am Feb 4, 2013 8:13am
can anyone familiar with King World News blog shed us some light on his claims success rate?
  • #22,600
  • Feb 4, 2013 9:12am Feb 4, 2013 9:12am
Quoting TheArcher
can anyone familiar with King World News blog shed us some light on his claims success rate?
The feature article when I went to KWN was a piece by Caesar Bryan who's explanation of the current financial market fundamentals seems quite reasonable (a good read for anyone trading Forex) but don't see any success rate claims so you must mean one of the other articles.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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