XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

In general, for anything including the metals, but specifically for EUR/JPY right now (or any Yen pairs), if you wait for RSI to bottom on whatever time scale you prefer and sell (if you are scalping) when it tops you'll probably do okay even without price action trend lines to guide you. Pay particular attention to when RSI is trending lower yet price action is moving higher or sideways as this is usually a strong indication that price is getting ready to jump higher. This all assumes an uptrend - reverse when using for vehicles in a downtrend.

A final off-topic note on Yen pairs: The new Japanese government has made it clear that 100 USD/JPY is their minimum target. Even the Pound which is plummeting against USD is gaining against the Yen. New "official" easing doesn't even start for the Yen until 2014 yet the Yen continues to fall. Looking at weekly or monthly charts, the Yen is still relatively expensive so that 100 USD/JPY target is actually rather conservative. In summary, there is no fundamental reason to buy the Yen.

Though many indicators have become "unhinged" (ZeroHedge calls it "unanchored") across all markets including seasonality, there's nothing to indicate seasonality for Forex has failed so I'd tentatively puts a reversal for Yen pairs around April despite the impressive gains.

...

p.s. It occurred to me while I was waiting to get my car serviced this morning (they did literally nothing and charged me $30 for an "inspection" and told me to bring it to my dealer) that Yen pairs can fall as early as late March or as late as the end of April and I wondered if this coincides (coincidentally) with either Easter or some other holiday based on the lunar calendar.

It also occurred to me that EUR/USD "bottoms" every 28 days, give or take a day (adjusted for weekends and holidays no doubt) putting the next bottom on February 4th. This is strictly a casual observation that I haven't looked into in any detail, nor have I looked to see if this reflects other US$ or Euro pairs or if it is unique to EUR/USD.

I have not redrawn any of my "good" charts yet ...just some quickly drawn trend lines as a rough visual guide. I started redrawing my EUR/JPY chart last night, starting on the monthly chart and working my way down to the five minute which is precise enough for my purposes (I got as far as the 4 hour).

I will probably do another Forex pair or two before gold and silver as I think the metals are following the late-rising pattern of a couple of years ago and I'm not interested in scalping the metals while they are down trending in a long-term bull market so my metals charts aren't a priority, but I'll certainly post them when I get to them.

I haven't posted much recently because I have been pretty busy and because I'm getting a bit fed up of going over the same things time and again. Certain people are just posting provocative comments for the sake of it. I appreciate that English is not everyone's first language but if you are intending to spar with people it helps to be able to express yourself and to understand the points being made......And if you do go so far as to present an argument at least check that it hasn't been debunked previously.

Precious metals will rise and fall from day to day - they are also manipulated to reap rewards for certain entities and to give false impressions by painting technical pictures. Please look into this yourself if you don't understand the point I am making. Jim Sinclair puts it quite well:

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/25/...ving-in-day-2/

The pm markets differ from the currency markets because they comprise both paper and physical markets based on different sides of the Atlantic. There comes a point where leveraged paper shorts run into Sovereign sized physical buyers and that seems to be the tipping point we are currently at.

The precious metals bull is still very much intact imho.

Suggest people might want to look at KWN's recent piece:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ver_Bulls.html

beeb

I've set up my demo Oanda account to trade XAG/USD and also created a Trade Explorer for it as well. I'm looking forward to this new journey of mine and hoping to be able to slowly build my confidence so I can one day return to live trading.

GDM (gold miners index) plummeted again today, doing triple damaged to my NUGT holdings. My chart told me it was going lower and my gut instinct was to get out, but ignored both and have paid the price. I haven't been following mining news lately to know the cause, but the effect is I'm anticipating distressingly lower gold prices.

Speaking of which, this last pull-back in gold corresponds to India's ending their diesel subsidy (if only every country would stop suckling the oil industries teat). SeekingAlpha explains the significance here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1127191-end-of-diesel-subsidy-in-india-bearish-for-gold

I'm happy with my core stock portfolio (NUGT notwithstanding), but this is a prime opportunity to invest/divest in sectors which will affected. This SeekingAlpha article is a good example of how you can profit by thinking about how a change in one market can affect many others.

A couple of people have pm'd me to ask me to clarify what I mean. So very briefly:

1. Technicals ARE important but in the longer timeframe are trumped by fundamentals.
2. The fundamentals for precious metals are for higher prices in this longer term therefore the technical "painting" is just noise along the way....

beeb

Weekly close says no to confirmation as silver rotates back from its weekly highs 32.40-50 area below 31.33 and gold rotates back to jan monthly pivot area 1705 and extends back south of 1665-7 as both acting like they want to continue south.
Eyes on weekly pivot areas and monthly close.
weekly
32.47
31.17
29.87
weekly
1693
1666-67
1639

Girls answered us when PA rotated back from weekly highs 32.40-50 and a drop below 1690.

no false break but anticipated weekly highs and normal rotation back from off of highs per previous heads up post earlier in week.
A break is when you move through the timeframe highs or lows which normaly will continue on to the next highs or lows within that timeframe be it daily weekly monthly quarterly yearly.
This is one reason we need to pay attention to the higher timeframes as well as the 5 min 15,30 1 and 4 hr.
We have to know were you stand within the trends or shall I say cycles within cycles.
What may appear to be a break on a 1 or 4 hr maybe a normal rotation to a stronger daily, weekly trends high or low.

silver weekly

26 to 35

35 to 30 ?

30 to 26 ?

your range lines up with my quarterly
35.23
30.60
25.97

er ... I am unfamiliar of ur jargons ..... who or what is "Girls" ... "she" u refer in last few posts of yours .

would like to see ur chart

interesting ..... breakouts ...... ?

Could be. But 1657 is very strong level, so could be 30 percent retrace where shorts would be covered. I'll try to long. BTW what is new in Davos?

Girls/She = Silver and/or Gold.

Yes, on the arrows showing breakout just different angle getting there.
From my angle your may arrow was a weekly and followed by a monthly break.
Her rotation up from 1525 was a weekly low.
Her retest of may break also was confirmed with a bounce south of quarterly 1628 and 2012 yearly pivot 1600 the primary and secondary trend.

Charts are naked, tweeked floor traders pivot is what I mostly use .
Read about Jesse Livermore stock operator .
Cheers

Elliott elongated flat correction down 1648.82
It may meet resistance in 1659.26 - 1662.62 zone for a drift down to 1652.75 zone, after which bounce to 1669.13 is anticipated.
Warning: Imminent end of bearish move

GOLD
Markets
Gold gained, paring a fourth monthly loss, Gold Spot up 0.2 % to $1,661.45 and traded at $1,660.10 in Asian Hours Palladium added 0.3 % to $743.75 , the highest intraday price since Sept. 9, 2011.

check the chart