Long silver here around $30, target is $49...

Fancy charts:

it's a killer situation to go either long or short.

I agree, silver was bubble-like when it hit 50 ish, but that doesn't mean a bigger bubble won't come. People were saying silver was a bubble in '03, '06 and '08 after their moves up, and there were corrections, no doubt, but they didn't spell the end of the bull market. I don't think this current consolidation is the end of the bull market either, not with QE being a global phenomenon. And there are big players in the metals market. George Soros and Bill Gross are two obvious ones. Not to mention central banks becoming net buyers in recent years... There will come a time to be bearish, but I don't see that time being here yet. I think we still have a ways to go.

Here's a useful chart. It's the hype cycle. My brother learned it in a marketing class and showed it to me. I thought, "Boy, I see that all the time!" LOL However, this pattern can and does present itself over and over in a sustained bull market. A lot of people (the dumb money) buy into the peak of inflated expectations and then turn around and sell into the trough of disillusionment. Don't be the dumb money. You want to buy the trough and sell the peak like the smart money does (or just hold if that's your style). I think that's what wears most people out. They let their emotions get the best of them and they become disillusioned themselves and start making excuses and blaming others for their mistakes. In other words, they're noobs. Don't be a noob. LOL I think we're in the latter stages of the current "plateau of productivity" and approaching the next "technology trigger", to put it in the terms of the hype cycle, but that's just my opinion.

http://i1185.photobucket.com/albums/...psdc553b5f.jpg

I remember reading an article when Soros was out of gold at $1800.

Do central banks buy gold? Maybe yes, but does it translate into a tradeable rally? No.

I'm not saying gold can't hit new highs, nor I say it should. Anything is possible. The fact is, this recent rally is not very tradeable. The previous one which shot out of a huge triangle was.

I will go long gold if it breaks $1800 and holds it.

I will go short it if it goes below $1500 and holds it.

One more thing to add: we hear about inflation fears all the time. This is so much BS. CPI is not rising. In fact Soros talked about a possible deflation in Europe. So all I see are goldbugs fighting the price up, and some very happy producers.

Dude you're funny. I really mean that.

No inflation danger? ROFL. And unemployment rate is below 10% in the US. Right. LOL.

Look, I'm an evil Kraut. I'm not that old (38) but I already had 2 (two!) monetary reforms in my life. Could be easily a third one. We Germans know that, we had hyper inflation. Look, I don't say that hyper inflation will come again but these CPI numbers are just bullshit. No matter if you take the US or the european ones.


Look, in case of a currency crisis where the Dollar has almost zero value, Silver will be much more usable than Gold. I'd prefer silver coins over gold coins especially if you want to buy food.


About 10 years now. If you meant me.


HAHA, who is Soros? Come on, do you really believe that Soros tells us he goes out of Gold? He just does it to buy cheaper. He's just talking his books.

But yes, anything is possible. Do I know whether silver will reach $49 again? NO. I just can define probabilities and with silver it's just that there is demand beyond supply (investors AND industrial demand!), the mining capabilities are not that high and do you know that Silver is even more rare on earth's surface than gold?

So what can happen now? If silver goes up to $49 without breaking below 30 again I will make around $100k with a $500 account. If not, so what?

You cannot compare the hyper inflation which occurred in Germany. At the time it was a completely destroyed country (post-war) with no production.

USA has the biggest companies in the world, Chinese would buy up the whole country if the dollar hyperinflated. US would bomb the sh!t out of them before they could even think of doing so. Hyperinflation is nonsense. It just a popular story people (and gold bugs) love to fantasize about.

US government might be fighting among themselves but they are not as stupid to push the whole bloody world into financial dark age.


If you really think you are going to pay with silver coins, with all respect, you are insane.


ps.: I too have a nice collection of silver coins. They are for decoration.

Hang on... So the US of A produces exactly what? What do they export beside iPhones and iPads and weapons?

There is no real production anymore at least compared to the size of the US. Don't get me wrong, I really like the US and the people there! But the depts clock is ticking.... tic tac tic tac...


Ahem... They already did. Or what do you think happend 2008+?

i think US produces a lot and sells globally too. Example: In most countries I have been Streets icecream is the only one available. See their stockmarket. They sold 1000 tanks to AUS I am sure EU purchased a lot as well.

Ah ok, well I don't want to offend here anyone. So in case of production that was just a quick shot from me.

In case they export they need a weak Dollar. With all that money printing going on they WILL get a weaker dollar. Guess what with XAG/USD will happen then?

forgot to mention 1000 used tanks and inapropriate for au conditions

lets not forget us army and what they receive as payment. I bet they will get donations from all over the world to keep going as there is so much on stake to keep status as is, if they compain that are paid too little. My view USD will remain strong !

edit: thinking a bit further JPM manipulation is likely just about that - to keep usd look pretty and in national interest. What makes you think this manipulation is over and JPM just pretends to be weak ? Stronger than market forces are army forces

Anyway, me happy too with long position.

Comment from a german PM distributor: (don´t to post his Homepage to prevent commertial!)

Google translation:

Quote: Status Silver Ounces replenishment world
Small status message to the silver ounce supply worldwide:

U.S. Mint Silver Eagles ex: U.S. Mint takes up 28.1. any more orders at will, then pick up orders against, but probably need to shorten
Maples ex Can.Mint: orders as usual not unlimited, there will be allocations and restrictions
Silver coin Phils ex Austria: orders still possible, but "buffer stock" goes to zero

Secondary market premiums in the U.S.: rising markedly, dealer voluntarily pay 20-30 cents more per ounce in order to even get to goods
U.S. wholesalers provide no or only limited to dealers in Europe, as they are already overwhelmed by the demand in the U.S. ...
Exciting times, but still no doom ... but it moves :-) what

special reasons
Specific reasons for the high demand beyond my knowledge, but above description of "actual situations" with mints or wholesalers are indeed factually Sun Why this is so and whether real or feigned, or whatever is another story :-)

The fact is, in any case that Americans now import already Eagles, Maples and Phils from Europe who have not done before and that :-) at prices they could not have previously paid Quote end

Hello Yuri,

all currencies lost purchasing power over time thats a fact sometimes faster, sometimes slower:

it´s not a myth it´s a fact all over the world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

i don´t believe that we are going to pay directly with silver it´s an asset, an asset thats running out of storage in
2 decades.

greets thodie

Gosh guys, we are talking about a highly leveraged market here, not what will happen in 200 years...

I don't talk about the next 200 years but about the next 5.

But yes, I don't think we will pay with silver but some kind of a monetary reform will come sooner or later. I'm fine with that, it will be my third. Lol

In the 1980's people were SURE the whole system would collapse. They were wrong ever since.

I don't say the whole system will collapse. It won't. But the inflation will come and the devaluation will come. The US debts is rising exponentially.

Scarcity combined with many other qualities like durability, malleability, divisibility & others make precious metals an ideal store of value IN THE LONG-RUN but again scarcity is their main feature. Paper-money on the other hand can be printed/typed-in endlessly & lose value, & that's why paper-money has been synonymous with devaluation since its inception since Chinese who introduced to . A $100 bill's production cost is about a couple of cents, rest is pure profit for the government, it's a profitable business for the government & they keep milking it until people become disillusioned with how much their purchasing-power is being stolen by the government & then there's a currency-collapse.

1980 was different, Volker came in & cut moneysupply, which caused interest-rates to go up & inflation was tamed, as moneysupply & inflation go hand in hand. But times have changed, US debt is at unsustainable levels, it was about 30% of GDP in 1980, now it's 100% so it'd be very difficult for Fed to do what it did in 1980 - cut moneysupply & raise interest - because the more the interest-rates go up, the more & more of government's revenue will be absorbed by interest-payments on debt, leaving less & less actual revenue to fund the warfare-welfare-State, which will mean that it will have to raise more & more money through debt-issuance, which will perpetually increase debt, the more the debt increases the comparatively higher interest has to be paid to keep borrowing, Fed will have to continuously keep stepping in & buy more debt to keep demand high - & whenever Fed buys anything - it creates more money, which ensures higher inflation & so on.
The only way to break the cycle would be to cut spending & run surpluses to pay down & reduce debt but that's not governments usually do, they usually only grow & spend more because they don't necessarily have to pay for it, they either steal or borrow.

Whether there will be hyperinflation or not is irrelevant, one thing is for sure that the current pure paper-based paradigm will see some significant shifts in the near future as soon as one of the major countries/currencies collapse, the history of paper-money & simple logic will deduce that much - in any case, gold will continue to be a good store of purchasing-power nonetheless into 10, 20, 30, 40, 50..........years to come.

I'll agree with one thing though, when dealing in leveraged products, one shouldn't purely take positions based on what is likely to happen in 5 or 10 years or such long-term scenarios, that'd be a VERY HIGH RISK GAMBLE because it will still leave you with short-term fluctuations, & leverage can easily wipe you out in a matter of few bad minutes on the market. Acquiring physical gold as a LONG-TERM asset to save & diversify is different (& definitely recommended).

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero"
-Voltaire

I would like to see a strong break and hold over 32.5. Daily trend overall is still down but the short term seems to be trying to move up. there's a few supply point above the current price to watch... i think fundamentals need to back it on top of technicals, as right now it looks 50/50 at best to me.

Yesterday was a good day for shorts, today I don't trade, the picture is getting more and more messed up.

u folks are going to shit below 10$