Long silver here around $30, target is $49... | Metals Mine

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Attachments: Long silver here around $30, target is $49...
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Long silver here around $30, target is $49...

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 17, 2013 9:22am Jan 17, 2013 9:22am
Hey all, I think there is a high probability silver will rocket this year and reach new highs above $50, maybe even $75.

Do you see any reasons (beside an economic collapse) why silver should NOT raise?

I'm very heavy long silver (overleveraged but well in the money) target $49 by mid of this year:

http://www.leidel.net/dl/fx/2013/xauusd_170113.png
  • #2
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:44am Jan 17, 2013 9:44am
Quoting Xaron
Hey all, I think there is a high probability silver will rocket this year and reach new highs above $50, maybe even $75.

Do you see any reasons (beside an economic collapse) why silver should NOT raise?

I'm very heavy long silver (overleveraged but well in the money) target $49 by mid of this year:


what do you think my chances of picking up some physical @ ~20 are before it takes off??
  • #3
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:45am Jan 17, 2013 9:45am
Quoting 1candlepower
what do you think my chances of picking up some physical @ ~20 are before it takes off??
0% We might see $20 again but not this year.
  • #4
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:48am Jan 17, 2013 9:48am
Quoting Xaron
0% We might see $20 again but not this year.


what would be a realistic price to wait for? (short term)
  • #5
  • Jan 17, 2013 9:51am Jan 17, 2013 9:51am
Uh... Now if I would know that I won't post stupid threads like this one.

Well, actually I'd say we will move now to $37 and after a retracement to $49. After this level breaks we will see an accelerated(!) move up to $60-$70.

Historically the inflation adjusted high of silver is above $100. Plus the Gold/Silver ratio is in favour of a huge silver up move (compared to Gold) as well.

Silver is an industrial metal used for many purposes plus you have all this Dollar devaluation... Oh, that was not your question, right.

So if you can scale in, do it now - IN MY(!!!) opinion.
  • #6
  • Jan 17, 2013 10:03am Jan 17, 2013 10:03am
Quoting Xaron
Uh... Now if I would know that I won't post stupid threads like this one.

Well, actually I'd say we will move now to $37 and after a retracement to $49. After this level breaks we will see an accelerated(!) move up to $60-$70.

Historically the inflation adjusted high of silver is above $100. Plus the Gold/Silver ratio is in favour of a huge silver up move (compared to Gold) as well.

Silver is an industrial metal used for many purposes plus you have all this Dollar devaluation... Oh, that was not your question, right.

So if you can scale in,...


mmmm..grrrr... yep. i've been watching the lower tl from ~june 29 for the last few months and hoped it would fall through near 29.3 on the 4th, but it didn't.

timing can be a problem at times .


thx for the info
  • #7
  • Jan 17, 2013 1:09pm Jan 17, 2013 1:09pm
There is quite heave support around $25 and its not likely to see any lower price in the near future. on the other hand, silver/gold ratio is at its historical high and the bullish potential is significant. the question is 'when'..
  • #8
  • Jan 18, 2013 8:27am Jan 18, 2013 8:27am
Adding more...

http://www.leidel.net/dl/fx/2013/xauusd_180113.png

Don't know if this works or not, stops are at BE so fly baby!
  • #9
  • Jan 19, 2013 6:43am Jan 19, 2013 6:43am
Quoting Xaron
Hey all, I think there is a high probability silver will rocket this year and reach new highs above $50, maybe even $75.

Do you see any reasons (beside an economic collapse) why silver should NOT raise?

I'm very heavy long silver (overleveraged but well in the money) target $49 by mid of this year:

http://www.leidel.net/dl/fx/2013/xauusd_170113.png
feinstens, 49 wären schon toll, hoffe das es nicht ein Rohrkrepierer wird wie letztes Jahr!
Aber eine Frage hab ich
Wie kannst du Ag über OANDA hebeln?
just do it
  • #10
  • Jan 19, 2013 7:18am Jan 19, 2013 7:18am
Quoting Xaron
Uh... Now if I would know that I won't post stupid threads like this one.

Well, actually I'd say we will move now to $37 and after a retracement to $49. After this level breaks we will see an accelerated(!) move up to $60-$70.

Historically the inflation adjusted high of silver is above $100. Plus the Gold/Silver ratio is in favour of a huge silver up move (compared to Gold) as well.

Silver is an industrial metal used for many purposes plus you have all this Dollar devaluation... Oh, that was not your question, right.

So if you can scale...
have similar view re gold/silver and repositioned my longterm portfolio to include more gold stocks. I am not into silver as dont understand drivers.

There is also traditional & timeless usage for gold - buying the bride (male or female, depending on culture).
  • #11
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:24am Jan 21, 2013 1:24am
Quoting thodie
feinstens, 49 wären schon toll, hoffe das es nicht ein Rohrkrepierer wird wie letztes Jahr!
Aber eine Frage hab ich
Wie kannst du Ag über OANDA hebeln?
Na das hoffe ich doch nicht!

Silber hebeln bei Oanda geht nur, wenn Du beim europäischen Zweig bist. Oanda UK also. Kannst Dein Konto dort ja einfach migrieren. Dann fällt auch diese dämliche FIFO Regel weg und Du kannst auch Indizes (den DAX z.B.) usw handeln.
  • #12
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:33am Jan 21, 2013 1:33am
Quoting Xaron
Na das hoffe ich doch nicht!

Silber hebeln bei Oanda geht nur, wenn Du beim europäischen Zweig bist. Oanda UK also. Kannst Dein Konto dort ja einfach migrieren. Dann fällt auch diese dämliche FIFO Regel weg und Du kannst auch Indizes (den DAX z.B.) usw handeln.
Vielen Dank!

Glück auf
just do it
  • #13
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:35am Jan 21, 2013 1:35am
So here are my fundamental reasons why I think silver (and gold) will rocket:

Gold/Silver ratio: Historically, the gold price is about 16 times higher than silver. At the current gold price level this would mean a silver price above $100.

Industrial demand: Compared to gold, silver has a broad need in the industry. The demand is rising where the mining capcities are not! Silver is rarer than Gold on the earth's surface!

Quantitative easing: Well QE3 is open ended. At the moment the FED creates $85 bln. per month out of thin air?

JP Morgan: Ah the price manipulators. There's still a lot of investigation going around but fact is they have a huge silver short position. As far as I know it's larger than the yearly silver production. Well guys, at some point this position has to be closed...

Physical shortage: There is simply not enough silver (and gold) to deliver. The demand is high.
  • #14
  • Jan 21, 2013 12:34pm Jan 21, 2013 12:34pm
I'm long too, holding physical and some of the ETF's. Been buying the dips since summer. I think your target of $49 is good. If we break above it I don't think it will be just in one shot, I think we'll bounce off it, pull back and consolidate, and then make another run at it. Just my opinion.

If anyone is interested in the ETF's, there's SLV (duh LOL), AGQ (2x leveraged), and USLV (3x leveraged). There's also the bear ETF's ZSL (2x leveraged) and DSLV (3x leveraged). I like using them to put on a hedge when I think price could pull back, and make some money on the downside too. Overall the bull market is well in tact, but there's still dips you can cash in on and then use your profits to add to your longs.
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #15
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:54pm Jan 21, 2013 2:54pm
If you think silver is a store of value, you are dead wrong. 95% of produced silver is consumed by the industry. Why would you store a metal which has a high fluctuation in value and you have gold instead which needs much less space.

In the markets silver is used for speculation, other than that, it's pretty much useless, it could be $10 and ounce easily.

If there weren't so many gold (& silver) bugs it would already be.

For how long have you been trading? How many times did you hear about the economic collapse? How can you believe in such fairy tales?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #16
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:03pm Jan 21, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting Yuri57
If you think silver is a store of value, you are dead wrong. 95% of produced silver is consumed by the industry. Why would you store a metal which has a high fluctuation in value and you have gold instead which needs much less space.

In the markets silver is used for speculation, other than that, it's pretty much useless, it could be $10 and ounce easily.

If there weren't so many gold (& silver) bugs it would already be.

For how long have you been trading? How many times did you hear about the economic collapse? How can you believe in such...
Man of strong arguments
  • #17
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:58pm Jan 21, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting Yuri57
If you think silver is a store of value, you are dead wrong.
If you think fiat currency is a store of value, you are dead wrong. The historical record is indisputable.

Quote
95% of produced silver is consumed by the industry.

Okay.

Quote
Why would you store a metal which has a high fluctuation in value and you have gold instead which needs much less space.

Because silver has more to gain percentage-wise.

Quote
In the markets silver is used for speculation, other than that, it's pretty much useless

Everything in the markets is used for speculation. What good are stock certificates if not for speculation? Toilet paper?

Quote
it could be $10 and ounce easily.

I highly doubt that. Maybe someday in the future after the metals bull market is over, but not any time soon.

Quote
If there weren't so many gold (& silver) bugs it would already be.

And if there weren't so many stock bugs the Dow would not be where it is today, but alas, there are, so it is.

Quote
For how long have you been trading?

Who?

Quote
How many times did you hear about the economic collapse?

Which one? And who said anything about economic collapse?

Quote
How can you believe in such fairy tales?

You're being a bit presumptuous here.
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #18
  • Jan 21, 2013 4:26pm Jan 21, 2013 4:26pm
There is no bull trend in the first place.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #19
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:05pm Jan 21, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting Yuri57
There is no bull trend in the first place.
Really? What's this?

http://i1185.photobucket.com/albums/...psca17fa95.jpg

And this?

http://i1185.photobucket.com/albums/...ps6d9bf77d.jpg

I think you need glasses, or just to learn the difference between up and down.

I'm not trying to be an ass, but if you're going to make wild, unfounded claims, then you need to back them up with facts and not unsubstantiated opinions. Post charts or some other form of actual analysis, not BS.
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #20
  • Jan 21, 2013 6:52pm Jan 21, 2013 6:52pm
Silver was a bubble at $50 so was gold at $1900. Since then it's a ranging market with bullish and bearish periods. This recent run-up was pretty weak, full of sudden drops. It is not how gold was acting when it was in a bull phase. It is going sideways. It's pretty clear gold bugs making some support for the price as they buy the dips but big players are not it. Price movement tells you.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
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