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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,241
  • Jan 11, 2013 1:46pm Jan 11, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting ivars
This bloody fork for silver on daily I made this morning copying another guys approach to gold worked like a clock today:
...

I have the same lines. Here's a chart with two set of bull and bear channels/forks. Purple is from last summer. Green goes back to 2008. I've noted two possible targets based solely on these lines, though I would look to RSI for reversal confirmation should price action hit either of these targets.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver - daily.jpg Size: 511 KB



Though I'm not an Eliot wave chartist, a cursory glance doesn't have either of these targets coinciding with an Eliot wave so hopefully no bemused will be lured by this projection.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #22,242
  • Jan 11, 2013 10:07pm Jan 11, 2013 10:07pm
Fundamentally i dunno what you think but heres my view...
Silver and Gold is headed for a medium term bearishness because of the Ongoing Theme of a global recovery in 2013....
if the economy is on its recovery gold and silver would be dumped for riskier assets like equities and bonds that pays out dividends....

correct me if im wrong...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #22,243
  • Jan 12, 2013 4:50am Jan 12, 2013 4:50am
Quoting fxtyrant
Fundamentally i dunno what you think but heres my view...
Silver and Gold is headed for a medium term bearishness because of the Ongoing Theme of a global recovery in 2013....
if the economy is on its recovery gold and silver would be dumped for riskier assets like equities and bonds that pays out dividends....

correct me if im wrong...
Hi there

This has been covered many times before in the thread - besides which I'm not sure we are seeing/likely to see any improvement in the global economy soon....

Basically:
QE/money supply exploding
Fear and instability - politically and economically
Inflation/Deflation
CB Buying

Gold has gone up for twelve straight years(?) in better and worse economic times - why should it change now? (Please don't bring the bubble question up)

If you have the time take a cruise around www.kingworldnews.com for views contrary to yours - some views are v extreme but they have counter arguments to you...

I'm afraid I don't have time/inclination to get into a long debate here, though others may wish to

beeb
  • #22,244
  • Edited 5:42am Jan 12, 2013 5:30am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting fxtyrant
Fundamentally i dunno what you think but heres my view...
Silver and Gold is headed for a medium term bearishness because of the Ongoing Theme of a global recovery in 2013....
if the economy is on its recovery gold and silver would be dumped for riskier assets like equities and bonds that pays out dividends....

correct me if im wrong...
All depends on USG debt size, its growth speed acceleration or deacceleration (=improving economy or short term fiscal deficit reductions) and future perceptions on USG debt as the measure of trust in the world fiat system which is based on USG treasuries), which in turn depends both on economical but also potential political decisions ( e.g. move into austerity and tax increase vs start of new war would be the max potential scope between PM negative and positive political decisions).

Medium term - till until political decisions about debt ceiling, sequester and govt budget - if combined with good payrolls, GDPs and hawkish FED talk - let us say till summer- can be slightly bearish or flat. That can not be excluded from options as uncertainty about future USG and FED actions is increased.

The move to riskier assets may also play role but one should be aware that it will reduce demand for treasuries thus increasing rates and that will be unacceptable to FED and USG, so these moves will be checked by e.g. hawkish FED. Whith could be also PM negative, but not necesserily as long as the market for bonds will be projected to exist.

I do not quite get Japan's role in this - are they acting one there own or just catching up with FED expansion and projecting USG threats to Chinain exchange for military protection and market for their goods in the worlds importer of last resort. I guess not on their own.
  • #22,245
  • Jan 12, 2013 6:40am Jan 12, 2013 6:40am
Quoting KADC
I have the same lines. Here's a chart with two set of bull and bear channels/forks. Purple is from last summer. Green goes back to 2008. I've noted two possible targets based solely on these lines, though I would look to RSI for reversal confirmation should price action hit either of these targets.
Yes, 2008 support line is not out of question as conditions for the first time since 2008 are so uncertain for PMs. On Semi_ log chart, long term lowest support comes in around 28,2 during this time. If that is breached, that would be briefly, and first time in the history of this bull market. As silver (and gold) raise has been exponential since 2001, semi_log chart captures all deviations from the basic trend. After 2008, fluctuations have increased but the bottom part of the channel is more favored than the top for silver.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/4...xponential.png

For gold, the 2008 bottom defined trend line value is around 1550-but gold has continued its move along middle line contrary to silver:

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/8...onentialch.png
  • #22,246
  • Jan 12, 2013 7:04am Jan 12, 2013 7:04am
Ivars

When comparing silver to gold remember that it has pretty much the same vector in terms of direction but is just more volatile - high beta

beeb
  • #22,247
  • Edited 12:56pm Jan 12, 2013 12:18pm | Edited 12:56pm
Yes of course silver is more volatile, by approx a factor of 2.

I made i pitchfork on daily silver /EUR and noticed that on Friday it reached the median (pierced a bit though) and then jumped back to the parallel line on close, as well as that its lows have now twice hit the 78,6% retracement of June October move. Could it mean that silver in EUR might move up on Monday? If so, EUR USD might fall, which could induce a fall also in XAG USD. 200 day MA is still high above silver in EUR.

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/4...erineurhit.png
But in general, EUR USD trend seems to be up now, so this chart if median not broken and the support line as well then would indicate that silver in USD will raise later, although other currencies may smooth the impact of raising EUR on USDx.
  • #22,248
  • Jan 12, 2013 1:09pm Jan 12, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting beeb
Read my previous comments - there are certain entities that want to "paint" a negative picture therefore they are attempting to put a weekly close beneath the 200 day MA. That is a very important technical level that many of the large funds and algorithms trade around.

No "normal" trader would unload such a large quantity of contracts so quickly - they would spread their sales - in order to maximise their returns.

beeb

EDIT - 10min GC and SI with vol bars at bottom
Paulson's Hedge Fund is selling gold and that's one of the main reasons why gold price is still down. But I think the weekly 100 ma should hold the drop.
  • #22,249
  • Jan 12, 2013 2:35pm Jan 12, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting mka_78
Paulson's Hedge Fund is selling gold and that's one of the main reasons why gold price is still down. But I think the weekly 100 ma should hold the drop.
I seem to remember that was one of last month's rumours.....

beeb
  • #22,250
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:38am Jan 13, 2013 5:38am
Quoting mka_78
Paulson's Hedge Fund is selling gold and that's one of the main reasons why gold price is still down. But I think the weekly 100 ma should hold the drop.
Not sure if paulson is on the right track but when I googled that Paulson hedge fund , I see bad media on it , Jp Morgan advises people to withdraw their funds , and it's been doing badly for 2 years
  • #22,251
  • Jan 13, 2013 1:12pm Jan 13, 2013 1:12pm
Gold is now well below its price, if we follow your line of recovery, he should be nearing 1800, the timing is great for long positions. Obviously say this to those who open positions with a view to two or three months at least.
  • #22,252
  • Jan 13, 2013 5:19pm Jan 13, 2013 5:19pm
short entered @ 1660
  • #22,253
  • Jan 13, 2013 7:09pm Jan 13, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting whatfx
short entered @ 1660
Hmm, thats strange, looking at hourly charts I believe the idea is to long XAU/USD from 1653 area after the hammer down to 1653 from 1679. As I type this sentence, its gone up to 1665. I could be wrong to have long though. I respect your trade !
  • #22,254
  • Jan 13, 2013 7:50pm Jan 13, 2013 7:50pm
refer to my last post #21904.
my charts suggested the drop to 1640 from the 1700's and now my daily charts have turned back up. will be buying the next dip within the next 24 hours to catch the next leg up.

any questions - PM me.
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  • #22,255
  • Jan 13, 2013 8:59pm Jan 13, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting Sreym33
refer to my last post #21904.
my charts suggested the drop to 1640 from the 1700's and now my daily charts have turned back up. will be buying the next dip within the next 24 hours to catch the next leg up.

any questions - PM me.
Yup, wait for a good entry point to long! It could not be within the next 24 hrs, as volume may be low on the first trading day of the week!
  • #22,256
  • Jan 13, 2013 10:24pm Jan 13, 2013 10:24pm
Sorry OT but who else caught the 300+. Pip euro. Move up???
What is the BOJ the king of the race to debase?
View : gold range then north
View : silver dips with north side bias
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,257
  • Jan 13, 2013 10:26pm Jan 13, 2013 10:26pm
Most of the dimwits are stacking euro shorts. Wonder
How much in the red some of those are. ????
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,258
  • Jan 14, 2013 12:03am Jan 14, 2013 12:03am
Quoting XTrade
Sorry OT but who else caught the 300+. Pip euro. Move up???
What is the BOJ the king of the race to debase?
View : gold range then north
View : silver dips with north side bias
I caught about 315 pips on EUR/JPY over the last few days. I'm out for now, but not taking my eye off the ball. Watching EUR/GBP too for a pullback. The Pound is in deep doo doo, and the Euro Zone is looking like they want to have more responsible monetary policy and not keep trashing their currency. At least that's what it looks like now, you never know what the future could hold.

My view for this year:

Short the Yen, long metals, short U.S. stocks but not yet, and maybe short real estate if things get hairy. If not then it'll only make it more profitable to short it when the time comes. Same with stocks. Not short yet but I think a sell off is definitely in the cards sometime in the not-so-distant future. I'm not long stocks right now though either, I got out already. Better to get out early than try and get out a little too late. LOL
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #22,259
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:31am Jan 14, 2013 6:31am
my analysis suggests gold is on its way up next few weeks. i have set a pending long at 1671.
  • #22,260
  • Jan 14, 2013 6:36am Jan 14, 2013 6:36am
Quoting Pluvius
Hmm, thats strange, looking at hourly charts I believe the idea is to long XAU/USD from 1653 area after the hammer down to 1653 from 1679. As I type this sentence, its gone up to 1665. I could be wrong to have long though. I respect your trade !

i got stopped out on the short for - 6 pips.

tbh i one of my charts went berserk and showed the wrong signals, this particular indicator was not working. me, foolishly without checking just went ahead with it. having had a tiresome day, wasnt thinking right.

anyway, no more shorts for the time being. pending long at 1671.

+40 pips on eu and gu so far today. going out for now.
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