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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,101
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:41am Jan 5, 2013 9:41am
Hi beeb,

Exactly the fork I made yesterday in my trading platform when the bottom seemed to be reached, and I started to hope i will not be stopped out following Coghlans advice on webinar I once saw. The alignment of median with past price action is such that its worth considering and allowed to stretch the a far back.

What I think is Oscillations within this fork for next month with slightly increasing bottoms and tops but below the previous high of 34 . Weekly and daily developments and reaction to nfp point to upwards movement in the next week at least.

BTW, how are these parallel lines within fork in your software placed? I do not have such in mine, it draws fibo distances outside the fork, enlarging it.

One is 50% but the other, closer to the median? 61, 8% from bottom/top of the fork to median or freehand marking resistances/support levels?
  • #22,102
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:50am Jan 5, 2013 9:50am
Quoting ivars
Hi beeb,

Exactly the fork I made yesterday in my trading platform when the bottom seemed to be reached, and I started to hope i will not be stopped out following Coghlans advice on webinar I once saw. The alignment of median with past price action is such that its worth considering and allowed to stretch the a far back.

What I think is Oscillations within this fork for next month with slightly increasing bottoms and tops but below the previous high of 34 . Weekly and daily developments and reaction to nfp point to upwards movement in the...
Glad you agree

I prefer to watch what happens rather than make predictions - but that's just me.

I use Ensign charting -I have tweaked it to draw the three types of fork at the touch of a button (turn of a mouse wheel in fact). It is set up to draw the fork (solid lines) quartiles half way between solid lines (dashes)

For the sliding parallel (dots) I just draw a line parallel to the fork then move it into position - having done that I can clone it as often as I want with one keystroke....

I can adjust the percentages as I want - but the lines and quartiles are all I have permanently

beeb

beeb
  • #22,103
  • Jan 5, 2013 9:59am Jan 5, 2013 9:59am
Quoting beeb
Glad you agree

I prefer to watch what happens rather than make predictions - but that's just me.

I use Ensign charting -I have tweaked it to draw the three types of fork at the touch of a button (turn of a mouse wheel in fact). It is set up to draw the fork (solid lines) quartiles half way between solid lines (dashes)

beeb
Ah yes I have heard about Ensign..That comes at a cost one has to earn first. I use Saxo Bank Broker with what comes with it.

Thanks for explanation of the other lines. Quartiles seem to be working nicely on its own as resistance/support in this case.
  • #22,104
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:01am Jan 5, 2013 11:01am
Quoting ivars
Ah yes I have heard about Ensign..That comes at a cost one has to earn first. I use Saxo Bank Broker with what comes with it.

Thanks for explanation of the other lines. Quartiles seem to be working nicely on its own as resistance/support in this case.
Ensign and esignal feeds work very well for me and I think one should use the best set of tools that you can afford/justify......I treat them as a business expense and view them in the same way as the fastest internet link I can get...

beeb
  • #22,105
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:42am Jan 5, 2013 11:42am
there is one guy named BEEB, who has many forks.
but none of them is useful for real trading.
just put the fork after the price. anyone can do that.
  • #22,106
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:52am Jan 5, 2013 11:52am
Quoting cnnewt61
there is one guy named BEEB, who has many forks.
but none of them is useful for real trading.
just put the fork after the price. anyone can do that.
Sorry mate - not interested - you're on ignore...

Got a problem then pm me and don't annoy everyone else...

beeb
  • #22,107
  • Jan 5, 2013 11:57am Jan 5, 2013 11:57am
Quoting cnnewt61
BEEB is back
welcome

i like beeb
and I noticed this btw......
  • #22,108
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:01pm Jan 5, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting cnnewt61
I remember there was once a guy called Beeb who is very good at using FORKS drawing.

and then after someone mocked at him. Beeb left this forum.

Could anybody tell me where I can find Beeb's analysis on XAU/USD now?
and this.....
  • #22,109
  • Jan 5, 2013 12:11pm Jan 5, 2013 12:11pm
after reams and reams of analysis .... hence forth the chart ?

is it bullish or bearish, now that it had done one full cycle of up and down ?

what have the Big Boys planned now ? to play bulls or bears ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: goldcycle.png Size: 34 KB
  • #22,110
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:50pm Jan 5, 2013 2:50pm
Archer your chart is similar to mine. Except I think I am looking a bit further ahead. that is some strong support that we just hit and the news was not enough to have the price close below it, thus, Iwith the increased volume (ie: part of the reason there is this tug of war/ or bouncing back and forth to the same price,) it seems if we can break the minor downtrend channel, she should be on the way to resuming the rise.

Take a look at the resiliency of cable as well.

My chart:
Quoting TheArcher
after reams and reams of analysis .... hence forth the chart ?

is it bullish or bearish, now that it had done one full cycle of up and down ?

what have the Big Boys planned now ? to play bulls or bears ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily 1 13.GIF Size: 83 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,111
  • Jan 5, 2013 2:54pm Jan 5, 2013 2:54pm
I hope this is a demo too.
Selling the same pair while buying it and holding the trades is almost certainly a surefire way to lose your account.

You are one move away from a margin call. And remember, although it may appear you have margin it is likely only there due to the hedges, if you start taking some trades off the margin will be required again,

No trade should be 20k in the hole. You are either trading too big lots on too small an account or using a poor system.

Please tell us this is a demo.

Quoting ahdts
can i get suggested from trader for my condition todays???
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,112
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:02pm Jan 5, 2013 3:02pm
I don't think with your 11 posts and as I know of ZERO contributions of any value to this thread you are in any position to make one off posts criticizing a respected and senior member/ contributor of this thread and forum.

Take a week off from posting and if you think you still belong here than we'll see.
Thanks for your useless post.

BTW, who are you talking to? And what have you shown?

You'll have a few hours to respond before your break.
BTW 2 your post is quoted below just in-case an erasure occurs.

BTW 3 I HIGHLY doubt you trade anywhere close to the caliber that beeb does.
Ever hear of using a system that works for you?



Quoting cnnewt61
there is one guy named BEEB, who has many forks.
but none of them is useful for real trading.
just put the fork after the price. anyone can do that.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,113
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:51pm Jan 5, 2013 3:51pm
March 4th 2012
Quoting cnnewt61
I remember there was once a guy called Beeb who is very good at using FORKS drawing.

and then after someone mocked at him. Beeb left this forum.

Could anybody tell me where I can find Beeb's analysis on XAU/USD now?
March 12th 2012
Quoting cnnewt61
BEEB is back
welcome

i like beeb
January 5th 2013
Quoting cnnewt61
there is one guy named BEEB, who has many forks.
but none of them is useful for real trading.
just put the fork after the price. anyone can do that.
So three of your 11 posts SPANNING ALMOST A YEAR are solely devoted to beeb.
Plus they seem to be contradictory.
Make up your mind and stop clogging up the thread with wasted space.

You still get a vacation though. Sorry!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #22,114
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:52pm Jan 5, 2013 3:52pm
Just read about 10 month ( 300 day) MA in a book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" about Livermore with annotations, and in annotations 10 month Ma was mentioned few times as a marker to longer time bull markets/bear markets.

Interestingly, in the chart below i have both 200 day MA ( lower) and 300 day MA plotted, and the reversal on Thursday happened at 300 day MA(blue line) . Makes it another candidate of studies to follow.

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/7...maonsilver.png
  • #22,115
  • Jan 5, 2013 3:58pm Jan 5, 2013 3:58pm
Hey X,

Good to see you take care of that beeb-hater!

Cheers,

Split
  • #22,116
  • Jan 5, 2013 4:26pm Jan 5, 2013 4:26pm
Given the upcoming political standoffs that are coming , it looke quite possible that this longer term triangle flag needs to be resolved before moving higher. Timing is May-June 2013. Right in time when budget issues would have to be solved, solving the fate of USG debt future (increase/decrease) and trust in USG treasuries as basis of world financial system ( less trust/more trust). I am sure it will move in direction of increase of debt and further gradual undermining or USG treasuries, but the market is telling that this is not 100% what its sure about the outcome of the debt ceiling crisis , sequester crisis about to grip the USA . Hence the triangle.

In 2011 and 2012, that seemed impossibly long. Now it does not anymore, actually, its quite close. Until then- oscillations within the triangle. In my rough charts, silver and gold resolution coincides, which is natural, but whatever the outcome, silver will move faster afterwards.


http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/164...ertriangle.png

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/5...ldtriangle.png
  • #22,117
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:43pm Jan 5, 2013 10:43pm
ivars ,

i find ur 300MA interesting, and curious to know of what Livermore had said --- does it mean that it is going to be range bound till upto May-June2013 ? or start of permanent downtrend ?

( i find that u have verbalised what i had in mind in the last 2 posts, thank you . )
  • #22,118
  • Jan 5, 2013 10:57pm Jan 5, 2013 10:57pm
what next ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bigboys.png Size: 32 KB
  • #22,119
  • Jan 6, 2013 1:12am Jan 6, 2013 1:12am
Quoting TheArcher
what next ?
I feel gold will be bulish for the time being, given the false break south and its after NFP AND NEW YEAR! Just decide a good entry point!
  • #22,120
  • Jan 6, 2013 2:39am Jan 6, 2013 2:39am
Quoting TheArcher
ivars ,

i find ur 300MA interesting, and curious to know of what Livermore had said --- does it mean that it is going to be range bound till upto May-June2013 ? or start of permanent downtrend ?

( i find that u have verbalised what i had in mind in the last 2 posts, thank you . )
Hi Archer,

Verbalizing my strong side; trading- I am novice - 3 months- barely hanged in on Friday

Am trying to understand the fundamentals.

300 DMA just interesting accident, I think. Its above 200 DMA (silver) . Livermore did not use moving averages, just bull / bear market trend changes he figured out.

In my mind, the triangle sets the range, with intraday and daily spikes possibly moving outside it. The overall double edged situation about USG debt which will be resolved within next 3-5 months , may be 6th, tells it may be true.

Then, the resolution will decide if market continues to be a bull or turn into bear. I think it will remain bull, but right at the conclusion of the triangle it may make a short term DIP, as happens quite often with such triangles on small scales, I have noticed.

So I think one has to take profits if long when it now should move a bit back up ( may be 32?) and be very careful all along the 5 month period or more- it will be clear one day in May ( or later- sell in May , go away ) which way it will move.

There will be macro and political indicators- the solution of further increase ( or event causing that like war) of USG debt with no end in sight will clearly indicate bull market.

In the meantime there will be so many options about US fiscal situation on the table that market will fluctuate quite wildly, basically staying withing triangle. If meantime US growth plus unemployment shows any signs of being not so bad as expected, and fiscal deficit will be reduced in first months, the outcome uncertainty will grow, so will PM price uncertainty.

To put it shortly: All depends on USG debt increase projections after the talks exhaust themselves and some decision is made + US grwoth + Payroll data.

The end of it should be continuation of bull market. But before that, many long and short may get busted because of volatility increased by informed market participants running waterfalls up and down within the limits of triangle.

Sorry for long answer, I am just formulating myself what could happen after the unexpected drop following fiscal cliff resolution ( should have been clearly PMs positive, but FOMC minutes showed how undecided the market is about future direction of the market near term. Very nervous, using tight stops on longs).
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