XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

With the greatest of respect, with results like that I would suggest that you consider giving up attempting to trade - or if you insist on continuing, definitely use a stop...

beeb

Hmm, any idea why XAU/USD bounced back up after the NFP?

i think the fomc statement last night has a bigger effect

Pardon me, but my economics or fundamentals are not good regarding the relationship between bonds and gold prices or the NFP report and gold prices

First, decide if you think gold is going up or down. If you think it's going down, close all your long positions. If you think gold is going up, close all your short positions. Then place tight trailing stops on all your remaining positions.

In future, open only one trade per vehicle. Hedging your own positions with the same vehicle is an illusory device traders use to feel better about losing trades, but mathematically you are better off closing any losing positions as soon as the trade heads in the wrong direction.

For example, if you think gold is going to turn around in $5, then exit and re-enter at that point. If you are right, you'll have an entry $5 better, and if you are wrong, you won't lose money from holding your position to your $5 target.

Hi Lotusbuddha,


[quote=lotusbuddha;6333191]
What do u think about a shorting @ $1690, SL @ 1705. TP1@ 1665, TP2 @ 1655?

Well done you were spot on with your trade.

The metals were moving in tandem with US$ but they seem to have returned to their more usual negative correlation now.

Gold fell $65 overnight and the NFP data was likely just a trigger for gold to retrace to the 38.2% Fibonacci from the high yesterday to the low this morning, then US PMI triggered gold and silver to both pull back to precisely the 38.2% Fibonacci of that retracement.

We haven't had really reactive Fridays in a long time, so barring some attention-grabbing headline (usually a rumour) this afternoon you probably won't see any more significant movement today. The markets will drift sideways until the European market closes when there will be a short flurry of trades one way or the other, then drift the opposite way until just before the US market closes and drift back the first way. Then China will decide on the weekend how it feels about this price level and we'll deal with the gap when the markets reopen Sunday.

Personally, I'm short from $1648 where RSI bounced off resistance on the 5 minute chart which coincided with the 23.6% retracement of the pull back of the pull back as well as breaking through 5 minute bull channel support. Circles denote my sell triggers. My target is $1639, the 61.8% retracement of the pull back of the pull back, where I'll put a trailing stop in case it falls further today, but I don't want to hold a new futures position over the weekend so I'll get out before the markets close.

I probably should have shorted from the first 38.2% which coincided with channel resistance but I was having some soup and not paying attention -- you can't make every trade.



Oh, I just noticed when I posted this I had a MACD sell signal as well. I wish my trading software allowed for indicator alerts as well as price alerts.

Woops, I just noticed that this chart doesn't have my 5 minute bull channel so you'll have to pretend those trend lines are there.

Here's an Eliot Wave chartist's opinion on where we are now.

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/p.../2013/id/47150


Personally, I'd like to see daily RSI hit support again before I feel comfortable going "really" long.

Here's an interesting multi-currency look at gold.

www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/For-Clues-to-Gold-Prices-in/1/4/2013/id/47158?page=full

Am travelling so don't have access to all my charts but I'm just getting a feeling that they may have pushed a bit too far today.........

Closes will be v telling imho

beeb

EDIT - it looks like GC daily is attempting an abcd D reversal with A at Oct high.....

Here's what I see.

http://i1185.photobucket.com/albums/...psb13532ef.jpg

http://i1185.photobucket.com/albums/...psf5813cfc.jpg

howdy folks ! as you americans would say.

iam back on the gold thread.

long time no see.

i see we have some new faces here on this thread, cant see any of the old guys around, except for beep. not sure whats happened to those guys ? maybe they lost too much and given up trading ?!

me, i have been quitely making money so no time to engage here. but, i have the next two weeks off ! so will be here for that duration, get back to old ways for a change. missed this thread.

see ya next week !

Good analysis, I can see the potential short from your entry to the midline you have then "decide time"... Gold has been bobbing between these areas so you are probably in the clear!

To add to your response post about the posed question of why the bounce back after the NFP: (Which itself was only slightly above forecast, thus, not stellar.)
Although unemployment has "droppred" supposedly, which I accredit solely to Holiday Hiring, which will likely provide a completely different and HIGHER number next release after a ton of unhappy "Holiday Help" gets the ax, it was higher than FF's prediction and likely many others. Wait for the holiday spending and holiday help to fade away and we should start getting some more realistic numbers for the US releases at least.

I did read a report that credit card use was back on the rise this season which I interpret as people feeling like giving due to the miserable situation this country is in (not to let the Eurozone off the hook) but spending likely above their means and buying too much.

In the US at least the new rage by the banksters and credit companies is "prepaid credit cards" although most of them tend to come with a 4.95 USD per month fee for use, they do serve a good purpose in that people are actually not falling into the allure of the credit trap, and using their own money. In this case a 5 buck fee is better than getting a monthly bill for several hundred which will most likely not be paid in full, incurring way more than the prepaid fee in interest alone @ a rate of anywhere from an appx 10 to 20 %.

Some are likely on breather but yes, B E E B - I'm sure he would like it if you spelled his name correctly are still here, going on since 2009 (this thread) given up?

If you are quitly making money you should post and give some of your money to the learner's here in words.
Welcome back buddy.
Happy New Year!

I hope this is on demo? I see you have 50% shorts and longs. What was your bias?

Look at what happened technically and fundamentally here on the daily gold chart.

Technically - the spot price hit a rising daily trend line, although in a downward channel, once the trendline was hit there was also HORIZONTAL STRONG SUPPORT (Which prior to the flip was actually resistance- this usually happens though) lined up to back the bounce and VOILÀ Bounce!
So that shows you the power of horizontal support and trendline support.

Now there were likely orders resting in this area waiting to be filled in anticipation of a dip due to positive NFP where we transfer to:

Fundamentally, the NFP was slightly Positive and the price fell, then once slightly negative unemployment was digested the price bounced back.

Bonus chart to illustrate the above noted.

I love trendline S/R ... I had an order @ 1627 to buy 5 lots ten days ago ...

On Globex, XAG got a daily hammer with long shadow. Weekly, this was first week of actual increase after 5 weeks of decreases.
NFP certainly returned markets to the reality of better not try to time the 6,5% unemployment goal as some FOMC members did.

Also, i think importantly , EUR USD changed the trend at NFP to move up (USDx is not quite good as it contains JPY which is artificially propping it up as it spirals down itself). I think EUR will stage a comeback near term from 1,30.

Last 3 downtrends on PMs were all started by payrolls (NFP) , so in general, this payroll caused uptrend effect should hold and move silver to 32,5-33 ....However, the coming budget and debt ceiling negotiations may unsettle anything, so I would expect a kind of whipsawing prices within next months between 29-34 , perhaps with small up going trend on bottoms. Same goes for NFPs- any of them reducing unemployment rate will be instant killer of PM uptrend in next few months. Flat or increasing unemployment- uptrend, not so much because of QE itself, but the need to keep interest rates low by buying bonds for USG to be able to borrow more.

The only thing that can cause serious correction is doubt in future USG debt accumulation, or, inversely, reduced doubt on USG treasury based world financial fiat system. That can be achieved by serious fiscal discipline or miraculous economic growth, none of which are to come, but if debt ceiling/sequestration negotiations moves into the direction of fiscal discipline plus 4th quarter and 1rst quarter growth is better than expected, the sentiment on PMs may turn sour after 12 years of run, at least in first 3-6 months of the year, or as long as it takes to see that USG is really addicted to increasing debt even more rapidly and will need low interest rates for next few years.

BTW, I had interesting experience yesterday when XAG came down 8 cents from my stops that would basically clean my account so I do not get margin calls, but for some reason it did not hit them. Was pretty scary, no doubt left me with plenty to think about more careful trading in future.

Things that I'm paying attention to:

Noting the last three weekly closes on GC.....

Also a positive daily close bouncing away from completed abcd beginning at Oct high. This correlated with 50% fib from May low.....

Indicators generally tending to point down but looking oversold - as previously stated maybe today was just one push too far into physical accumulation. Next week is first week back after the hols and nfp now out of the way.......

beeb

Thought people might be interested in how I look to see if a fork is worth watching at an early stage - PLEASE NOTE THIS IS NOT YET PROVEN AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON IN ANY WAY.........

Looking at SI 20 min there are three obvious pivots - am assuming that C is the low but will take nothing for granted. What I am looking for in a fork is something in tune with the direction of price. This one interests me because of the number of tail touches (red circles)

What I will do is keep it to hand and watch for any further confirmation of it being in harmony with price. eg there is a possible sliding parallel forming along the blue dotted line.

Note that I am not looking at this in isolation but am doing so in coordination with other timeframes....

Let's see how it plays out

beeb