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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #21,981
  • Dec 24, 2012 4:49am Dec 24, 2012 4:49am
Quoting KADC
I don't see gold rising $35 in the near term nor any reason to close my short at the moment. On what are you basing your analysis?

check were price are heading ... oops upward ... 1635 wont retrace back
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let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,982
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:06am Dec 24, 2012 5:06am
Quoting forexmnstr
check were price are heading ... oops upward ... 1635 wont retrace back
So using a five-minute time scale you see gold rising $35 ...a point beyond the entire range of your chart? If this is working for you, then that's great, but I think you might be better served using charts with longer time scales to determine trends.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,983
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:09am Dec 24, 2012 5:09am
Quoting Dr.Trade
In the daily time frame,Perhaps Gold's forming the Elliott Fourth Wave and we should expect a new spike down around 1630 to form the 5th wave then,
A breakthrough of 1683 will invalidate this scenario and that's when we should look for a long position,in my opinion.
feedback is welcomed as I'm somehow newbie
That seems quite reasonable, particularly with $1630 being a major support level as well as the 61.8% retracement of the full May/October move.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,984
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:16am Dec 24, 2012 5:16am
Quoting KADC
So using a five-minute time scale you see gold rising $35 ...a point beyond the entire range of your chart? If this is working for you, then that's great, but I think you might be better served using charts with longer time scales to determine trends.
That was M15 not M5 ... anyway here is the 1 hour chart ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,985
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:18am Dec 24, 2012 5:18am
Quoting Dr.Trade
In the daily time frame,Perhaps Gold's forming the Elliott Fourth Wave and we should expect a new spike down around 1630 to form the 5th wave then,
A breakthrough of 1683 will invalidate this scenario and that's when we should look for a long position,in my opinion.
feedback is welcomed as I'm somewhat newbie
I dont think so ... based to my analysis those time has gone ... but maybe who knows ... I might be wrong ... thanks for sharing
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,986
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:20am Dec 24, 2012 5:20am
Quoting forexmnstr
That was M15 not M5 ... anyway here is the 1 hour chart ...
That's the exact same time period. You cannot determine trend based two days of price movement.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #21,987
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:26am Dec 24, 2012 5:26am
Quoting KADC
That's the exact same time period. You cannot determine trend based two days of price movement.
thanks for clearing it ... but as you mentioned ... be unreasonable ... sometimes you need to look outside the box
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,988
  • Dec 24, 2012 5:42am Dec 24, 2012 5:42am
either way. current area is the critical one. its either bounce back to down or it breakout if it pass 1665 area. we will see. currently still long position. hopefully it break through that area. what need to be aware is . this is not safe for long position. since divergence is everwhere.
  • #21,989
  • Dec 24, 2012 6:00am Dec 24, 2012 6:00am
any one agree ?
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let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,990
  • Dec 24, 2012 10:16pm Dec 24, 2012 10:16pm
Both KADC and Forexmnster have their points and convincing in both perspectives.

Sorry guys, I may be amateur but as Gary Wagner said on his gold forecast interview on 4th Dec 2012 as streamed on Youtube, we are just sitting at back of the boat, trying to know where the boat is going from the wake of the waves. He gave 3 possibilities, truncated, flat and zig zag to a new low. He said he was a bias bull and didn't expect it to go beyond 1665 but his senses was wrong. But he did say he could be wrong, he was just bias. Over here, I noticed we are trying to reconcile something with something and if something unexpected turns out, we would be using another something to explain that unexpected thing happened.

I have one bloke from another forum drawing some diagonal lines saying it will go all the way down to 1500 plus for XAU/USD couple of days back. Hey man...nothing's impossible. But what Gary Wagner says which makes sense to me (economics), I feel gold will keep up with the times (fixed/pegged). If one ounce of gold could get me this much purchasing power some years back, this ounce of gold should get me the same purchasing power (+/- a little) some years later.

I am uncertain (due to so many large scale events like the fiscal cliff) but I do hope that gold goes back up though as it has been about a month since late November the bearish signs showed.

Merry Xmas everyone !!!
  • #21,991
  • Dec 25, 2012 1:35pm Dec 25, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting KADC
I have an order to short Feb GC from $1662. In addition to the confluence I mentioned 3 posts ago, it is also the 50% retracement of the full move from May's low to October's high. Another equal step down would hit roughly $1620 though I don't have anything else coinciding with that level. $1630, $1600, and $1585 are more significant support targets on the daily chart and we'll just have to wait until the 27th to see how low the banks are willing to push gold before they buy it back. Of course, there's no guarantee of a repeat of what happened...
Hi KADC,

I'm new in trading gold and started reading this thread, as far as I have read I found your charts and ideas very usefull to someone who wants to trade anything especially gold.Here is my chart.I think that on 1H chart there is still a very nice trend down, plus rsi 14 is down on 1h too.Moreover as you mentioned a few posts ago gold is at a retracement level .I'm short from 1660 expecting gold would drop to at least 1650, if break that red trendline down from 1670, it should go down back to 1642 which is the 76.4 retracement of the last rise from 1635.
Wonder your ideas about this chart .
Thanks for supporting your ideas with perfect fibo confluences.

Regards,
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  • #21,992
  • Dec 25, 2012 1:43pm Dec 25, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting okanemici
Hi KADC,

I'm new in trading gold and started reading this thread, as far as I have read I found your charts and ideas very usefull to someone who wants to trade anything especially gold.Here is my chart.I think that on 1H chart there is still a very nice trend down, plus rsi 14 is down on 1h too.Moreover as you mentioned a few posts ago gold is at a retracement level .I'm short from 1660 expecting gold would drop to at least 1650, if break that red trendline down from 1670, it should go down back to 1642 which is the 76.4 retracement of the...
Maybe this is a better chart.There is nice fibo confluence at 1650 and 1635 .
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  • #21,993
  • Dec 25, 2012 3:02pm Dec 25, 2012 3:02pm
[quote=okanemici;6321347]Maybe this is a better chart.There is nice fibo confluence at 1650 and 1635 .


Hi again,

This is my silver trade , tp is 29.20.
retrace of the last drop from 31.25 is at fibo 50 completed.Now I will chase it down to fibo 161 , which is 29.20.

regards,

okan
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  • #21,994
  • Dec 26, 2012 5:53pm Dec 26, 2012 5:53pm
http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/uplo...ab39e2e0b9.png
  • #21,995
  • Dec 27, 2012 12:06am Dec 27, 2012 12:06am
Quoting chaini
http://www.goldseiten.de/bilder/uplo...ab39e2e0b9.png
Thats exactly how I have analysed gold ... where ever it goes ... price will come back to 1800 ... I guess
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #21,996
  • Dec 27, 2012 12:18am Dec 27, 2012 12:18am
i think, everythings in price... to late for grafics and fiscal cliff imagenations...
  • #21,997
  • Dec 27, 2012 12:38am Dec 27, 2012 12:38am
Quoting prototip
i think, everythings in price... to late for grafics and fiscal cliff imagenations...
c. banks printing... gold up... c. bank dont want gold up, because they printing... if gold price is not real today, why should it be real tomorrow... it can be only timing issue for me...
  • #21,998
  • Dec 27, 2012 2:20am Dec 27, 2012 2:20am
Quoting prototip
c. banks printing... gold up... c. bank dont want gold up, because they printing... if gold price is not real today, why should it be real tomorrow... it can be only timing issue for me...
Please specify what you are meaning.
  • #21,999
  • Dec 27, 2012 5:38am Dec 27, 2012 5:38am
Quoting Dr.Trade
In the daily time frame,Perhaps Gold's forming the Elliott Fourth Wave and we should expect a new spike down around 1630 to form the 5th wave then,
A breakthrough of 1683 will invalidate this scenario and that's when we should look for a long position,in my opinion.
feedback is welcomed as I'm somewhat newbie
Seems like the 4th wave has been completed at 32.8% of the third wave,in such case we expect the gold to tumble down in order to form the 5th wave.
  • #22,000
  • Dec 27, 2012 6:29am Dec 27, 2012 6:29am
HOHOHo
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